If I had to make a guess...it may have to do with the Fed announcement yesterday. From what I've read, a lot of that $1.5t is going to be spent in the T-Bond repo market.

I reckon someone smarter than me will come along soon and confirm or give a more accurate answer.

I'm not sure but my mortgage lender said that rates are increasing despite the fact the 10-year is near all-time lows.

Mtn_Guide said:

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I'm not sure but my mortgage lender said that rates are increasing despite the fact the 10-year is near all-time lows.

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He is right. Not sure what to make of it. This happened a few months ago and then went back down.

There are some scary stories on what is going on, but I think it went up with long term inflation concerns.

We likely will know the truth in a few days.

Interesting times.

Mtn_Guide said:

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I'm not sure but my mortgage lender said that rates are increasing despite the fact the 10-year is near all-time lows.

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Mortgage rates moved a lot this week. Some mortgage bankers are blaming it on the large banks who have too much supply. If true, it may take some time to settle down.


Not sure what is going on in the 10y market. I don't think I would assume inflation with gold and other commodities falling off. I would assume there is / was either lack of faith in the fed, or our efficient markets sometimes have "blips" (i.e., the fed trades are pushing the markets erratically).

Harkrider 93 said:

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Mtn_Guide said:

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I'm not sure but my mortgage lender said that rates are increasing despite the fact the 10-year is near all-time lows.

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He is right. Not sure what to make of it. This happened a few months ago and then went back down.

There are some scary stories on what is going on, but I think it went up with long term inflation concerns.

We likely will know the truth in a few days.

Interesting times.

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I'm all about scary stories. Dump them on us.

Can you explain too much supply? What would that look like?

Mortgage rate quote went from 3.3% Monday to 4.6% Today, Friday. And I didn't have my rate locked in, so no longer worth while to refinance. Big opportunity miss there. Hopefully it drops back down.

We signed on a new build Monday. We'll close in September or October. Hope the rates settle back down.

Look up Guggenheim Scott Minerd calls in to CNBC


He isn't always right. Also, gold went down on the same day the treasuries did and the market. If people were scared of treasuries, you go to gold. I think some were selling profits from the run up in gold and t bills.

Also, there were times when t bills and stocks both fell in 2008.

All A&M said:

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I checked the 10y price and yield today (3/13/20 at 09:30 CDT); the price is up 0.20% and the yield is up 7.42%.
Source on price: IEF
Source on yield: TNX

How can the change in price and yield both move in the same direction? What is going on in the bond market today?

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Tracking error. ETFs move with the underlying, but not simultaneously.

Mtn_Guide said:

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Can you explain too much supply? What would that look like?

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More loan applications in process than they have capacity to handle. You shut that down by raising rates.

too many people chasing a limited supply of cash equals increase in mortgage rates. Once the rat (i.e. new refi applications) moves through the snake, things should settle

jja79 said:

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Mtn_Guide said:

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Can you explain too much supply? What would that look like?

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More loan applications in process than they have capacity to handle. You shut that down by raising rates.

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Thanks for putting it in those terms. That completely makes sense.

Explanation of mortgage rates: http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/consumer_rates/938641.aspx

Fed just announced they plan on buying at least 200 billion in mortgage backed securities over the next few months. That could just be the liquidity jolt that the MBS market needs to send rates back down.

This video explains what is going on with the Fed repos, it also touches on treasury pricing.