He wrote an article on ESPN (insider) where he polled 10 scouts/GMs who have seen Darvish pitch in person and asked them to pick between Darvish and other proven pitchers. Based on their opinions it appears that Darvis could be expected to put up numbers somewhere between Garza and Grienke.

I will believe it when I see it.

edit for link http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/hotstove11/story/_/id/7372571/mlb-comparing-yu-darvish-justin-verlander-zack-greinke-other-elite-right-handers


[This message has been edited by WhiteRock Horn (edited 12/22/2011 10:29a).]

*h

quote:

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I will believe it when I see it.

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Not saying that this is a bad thing, but any reason in particular you feel this way?

Dice-K was supposed to be the next No. 1 starter, and I see a lot of correlation between the two, even though the experts think Darvish is "less-risky" than Dice-K was.

What are the correlations that you've seen?

they both pitched in Japan and they both have black hair.

Other than that, they are night and day.

Darvish is a lot younger than Dice-K and primarily uses his fastball and works from there, which is completely different than most Japanese pitchers.

Yeah...folks really need to stop with the DiceK bit.


He and Darvish don't have a lot in common besides being from Japan.

Just a quick rundown of 3 of the more significant differences:

Darvish's ERA was a full run lower for most of his Japanese career.

Darvish is younger.

And what I believe to be one of the most telling factors -- Dice-K is 6'0, 185lbs... Darvish is 6'5, 185lbs. A lot of Dice-K's poor performance many believed had to do with him coming stateside out of shape. Darvish is in incredible shape.

and Darvish's WORST year of pitching in Japan was better than Dice-K's best.

[This message has been edited by Boyd Fistmas (edited 12/21/2011 3:00p).]

by the way, hayden - Darvish is now listed at 6'5 215.

And we aren't supposed to believe he has some Ancient Chinese Secret gyroball to mystify US hitters.

The dude throws harder than all but 6 AL starters and has several other plus pitches, including a slider that looks like something out of cartoon.

Also, remember after a year of being meh, Dice K was 18-3 and 4th in the Cy Young voting before injuries started mounting. It's not like he came over here and got rocked. He's just got leg/shoulder/TJ issues now and can't get it done.

That espn article has the vote 5 to 5 Greinke vs. Darvish. An mlb.com video said it thinks he's a prospect somewhere south of Strasburg, north of Matt Moore. Either way, there are a lot of baseball people that think he'll be pretty elite.

if he's in the same ballpark as Matt Moore, he'll be worth every penny.

Moore is going to be a superstar.

I think we are all a little jumpy because of



I think most fanbases would be more excited

Chan Ho is Korean

So are you Chinese or Japanese

Gdammit I love that show.

here are some of the similarlites and differences between Dice K and Darvish, most of it has to do with the work load Dice-K had at a young age:

quote:

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Dec 20, 2011 - Five years ago, the Boston Red Sox "won" the right to negotiate with Seibu Lions pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka, by submitting a $51.1 million posting fee.

Monday, we learned the Texas Rangers had won the right to negotiate with Nippon Ham Fighters pitcher Yu Darvish, by submitting a $51.7 million posting fee.*

* It's popularly believed that the Red Sox and Rangers paid those figures to the Japanese teams merely for the right to negotiate, regardless of the ultimate disposition of those negotiations. No. The funds are transferred only if the player does eventually sign a contract with the North American club. Which almost always does happen.

Like Matsuzaka was in 2006, Darvish is still a young man; he won't turn 26 until next August.

Other than the posting fees, though, the differences between Darvish and Daisuke are stark.

Hell, they're not even both fully Japanese; Darvish's father is a native of Iran: Farsad Darvishsefad. Oh, and his parents met in Florida. So he's a Japanese-Iranian (or vice versa) by way of St. Petersburg.

Of course, both did exhibit outstanding stuff in Japan.

Their actual performances, though? Quite different.

Matsuzaka graduated from high school directly to the Japanese major leagues. As an 18-year-old rookie he started the All-Star Game. He finished that season 16-5 with a 2.60 ERA. He also threw 180 innings.

As a 19-year-old, Dice-K threw only 168 innings ... and then came 20. When he was 20, Dice-K somehow threw 240 innings despite starting only 20 games, 12 of which he completed; he relieved in 13 more.

That's an immense number of innings for a 20-year-old pitcher. Also, he struck out 214 hitters and walked 117, so he must have thrown an immense number of pitches.

To the surprise of nobody in Japan who had read Craig Wright's work, Matsuzaka didn't throw anything like 214 innings the next season. He couldn't, because he spent most of the next season on the disabled list.

I'll not belabor this point much further. Matsuzaka threw 348 innings when he was 18 and 19, then from 20 through 24 his innings went 240, 73, 194, 143, 215.

Darvish also reached the Japanese majors at 18, and threw 244 innings at 18 and 19. From 20 through 24, his innings went 208, 201, 182, 202, 232.

Darvish has obviously thrown more innings than Dice-K from Ages 20 through 24, but that's actually a positive marker for Darish; he's thrown a ton of innings, but not as tonnish as Dice from 18 through 20. Also, because he's always kept his walks exceptionally low, Darvish probably hasn't thrown nearly as many pitches per start as Matsuzaka did.

There's no such thing as a sure thing. Matsuzaka wasn't a sure thing. Darvish isn't a sure thing. But on scale of non-surety, and based solely on the numbers at hand, Darvish seems significantly less risky than Matsuzaka. He's been absolutely healthy throughout his professional career, and he's got better numbers to boot.

Both pitchers struck out nearly nine per nine innings in Japan. But where Matsuzaka walke roughly three batters every nine innings, Darvish's walk rate is roughly 25 percent lower. Matsuzaka's strikeout-to-walk ratio in Japan was 2.7; Darvish's was 3.8.

Now, I must mention that Dice's strikeouts and walks were outstanding in his last two seasons in Japan, which I'm sure is what made him so bloody attractive to the Red Sox. But again, this is sort of the point; what Matsuzaka did for those last two seasons, Darvish has done for the last five seasons. He's been excellent and he's been consistent.

Of course, $51.7 million is a great deal of money. And that's not even the half of it.

The Red Sox paid the Seibu Lions $51.1 million, and they paid Daisuke Matsuzaka $41.7 million. Considering that Dice-K won only 49 games in his five seasons with the Sox, they didn't really get their $92.8 million worth.

It's going to take more to get Yu Darvish. There's been some loose talk about a five-year, $75 million contract. Which would mean a total outlay of roughly $125 million, or $25 million per season. Darvish would essentially replace C.J. Wilson, a really good pitcher, in the Rangers' rotation. Wilson has to be replaced because he's left to pitch for the Angels, who are going to pay him $15 million per season.

That's how much the Rangers seem to like Yu Darvish.

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here are some of the similarlites and differences between Dice K and Darvish, most of it has to do with the work load Dice-K had at a young age:

quote:

---

Dec 20, 2011 - Five years ago, the Boston Red Sox "won" the right to negotiate with Seibu Lions pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka, by submitting a $51.1 million posting fee.

Monday, we learned the Texas Rangers had won the right to negotiate with Nippon Ham Fighters pitcher Yu Darvish, by submitting a $51.7 million posting fee.*

* It's popularly believed that the Red Sox and Rangers paid those figures to the Japanese teams merely for the right to negotiate, regardless of the ultimate disposition of those negotiations. No. The funds are transferred only if the player does eventually sign a contract with the North American club. Which almost always does happen.

Like Matsuzaka was in 2006, Darvish is still a young man; he won't turn 26 until next August.

Other than the posting fees, though, the differences between Darvish and Daisuke are stark.

Hell, they're not even both fully Japanese; Darvish's father is a native of Iran: Farsad Darvishsefad. Oh, and his parents met in Florida. So he's a Japanese-Iranian (or vice versa) by way of St. Petersburg.

Of course, both did exhibit outstanding stuff in Japan.

Their actual performances, though? Quite different.

Matsuzaka graduated from high school directly to the Japanese major leagues. As an 18-year-old rookie he started the All-Star Game. He finished that season 16-5 with a 2.60 ERA. He also threw 180 innings.

As a 19-year-old, Dice-K threw only 168 innings ... and then came 20. When he was 20, Dice-K somehow threw 240 innings despite starting only 20 games, 12 of which he completed; he relieved in 13 more.

That's an immense number of innings for a 20-year-old pitcher. Also, he struck out 214 hitters and walked 117, so he must have thrown an immense number of pitches.

To the surprise of nobody in Japan who had read Craig Wright's work, Matsuzaka didn't throw anything like 214 innings the next season. He couldn't, because he spent most of the next season on the disabled list.

I'll not belabor this point much further. Matsuzaka threw 348 innings when he was 18 and 19, then from 20 through 24 his innings went 240, 73, 194, 143, 215.

Darvish also reached the Japanese majors at 18, and threw 244 innings at 18 and 19. From 20 through 24, his innings went 208, 201, 182, 202, 232.

Darvish has obviously thrown more innings than Dice-K from Ages 20 through 24, but that's actually a positive marker for Darish; he's thrown a ton of innings, but not as tonnish as Dice from 18 through 20. Also, because he's always kept his walks exceptionally low, Darvish probably hasn't thrown nearly as many pitches per start as Matsuzaka did.

There's no such thing as a sure thing. Matsuzaka wasn't a sure thing. Darvish isn't a sure thing. But on scale of non-surety, and based solely on the numbers at hand, Darvish seems significantly less risky than Matsuzaka. He's been absolutely healthy throughout his professional career, and he's got better numbers to boot.

Both pitchers struck out nearly nine per nine innings in Japan. But where Matsuzaka walke roughly three batters every nine innings, Darvish's walk rate is roughly 25 percent lower. Matsuzaka's strikeout-to-walk ratio in Japan was 2.7; Darvish's was 3.8.

Now, I must mention that Dice's strikeouts and walks were outstanding in his last two seasons in Japan, which I'm sure is what made him so bloody attractive to the Red Sox. But again, this is sort of the point; what Matsuzaka did for those last two seasons, Darvish has done for the last five seasons. He's been excellent and he's been consistent.

Of course, $51.7 million is a great deal of money. And that's not even the half of it.

The Red Sox paid the Seibu Lions $51.1 million, and they paid Daisuke Matsuzaka $41.7 million. Considering that Dice-K won only 49 games in his five seasons with the Sox, they didn't really get their $92.8 million worth.

It's going to take more to get Yu Darvish. There's been some loose talk about a five-year, $75 million contract. Which would mean a total outlay of roughly $125 million, or $25 million per season. Darvish would essentially replace C.J. Wilson, a really good pitcher, in the Rangers' rotation. Wilson has to be replaced because he's left to pitch for the Angels, who are going to pay him $15 million per season.

That's how much the Rangers seem to like Yu Darvish.

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Here's another difference.

Dice K is Japanese.

Darvish is half Japanese half Iranian. I'm surprised he's loved in Japan considering he's not 100% Japanese. I was told anything less was viewed poorly in places like Japan and South Korea.

Dice-k had injury issues early in his Japanese career. Darvis(h) was "eased" into his workload and wasn't abused nearly as much as Matsusaka. Yu has more pitches and the quality of his stuff is better than Dice-k's was. While he wasn't exactly finesse, he didn't have the fastball of Yu. Scouts project his fastball as a 60-65 on the 20-80 scouting scale (that's plus for you kids at home) and all his secondary offerings as 50-55 (above average), with potential for better. From what I understand his slider is his second best pitch and is a potential plus pitch.

He is a completely different pitcher than anything to ever come out of Japan, and while there is certainly reason to be skeptical, you have to look at him from a scouting standpoint and not a numbers standpoint, and his pitches and command are what point to him being successful. He has never been one to walk batters where Dice-K had issues with it at time.

If you want to compare him and get a better idea of another Japanese pitcher, look no further than the Rangers own Colby Lewis. His numbers weren't nearly as good as Yu's over there, but he was able to continue to strike people out, limit walks, and not get lit up by opposing batters. If Darvish can pitch like Colby, but limit the long ball we'll have a great pitcher (but that's just for people who need comparisons). Darvish is his own pitcher and should be a huge addition.