Lebron James Prediction/Thoughts Thread

631 Views | 27 Replies | Last: 15 yr ago by Pen Is Mightier
HotardAg07
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Lebron seems to be a hot topic, so I have a lot of thoughts.

First of all, is he basketball Jesus?
I don't think so. He's definitely a top 5 player in the league and arguably top 1, but he definitely has holes. He is the most dominant player ever in transition, but in the half-court set his style of play leads his offense to rely completely on him and can make a team very inconsistent and predictable. Remember the most recent Olympics? Wade, Melo, and Kobe were the stars, because they could play with other stars and thrive off the ball -- they enhance their teammates creativity. Lebron isn't as good off the ball or just doesn't care as much if the ball isn't in his hands.

I don't mean to say he's not a great player, he's obviously exceedingly talented -- I'm just saying he's not a lock for a championship if he comes to your town (obviously). I will also say that I don't think Lebron can play at a high level for 8-10 more years, because his game is highly predicated on his athleticism. Once his burst goes, so will his game (like T-Mac). Kobe and Durant are more skilled, so their games will stay good longer in their careers. Not to mention, he will just have a lot of miles on those legs of trying to carry teams single-handedly and playing with the burden of the supposed savior of a sport and city wherever he goes.

What do I think about Miami?
I don't think he goes here, because I don't think he wants to join DWade's team. Even though LeBron is the better player, that is still DWade's team and DWade has won a championship without Lebron. It would just seem like Lebron needed DWade more than DWade needed Lebron... and I think he knows that. Ego gets in the way here.

Could LBJ, DW, and possibly Bosh meet at a neutral team in Chicago?
LBJ will never be as highly regarded as Michael Jordan in Chicago and for a guy with an ego who is searching for immortality... that has to be a deal breaker. But, that WOULD be the ideal situation for winning championships. Rose, DW, LBJ, Bosh, Noah ... yikes. Then again, there's not a 3 point shooter in that group -- they might be better off taking Dirk than Bosh to stretch the court... but Dirk doesn't have 6 years left.

What about the Knicks/Nets?
Honestly -- not buying it. I'm certainly not buying the Knicks, I don't think there is anything remotely attractive about that situation. He doesn't need to be in New York to get worldwide attention (he already has it, the media now is different), and their team sucks... so does their GM and Coach. They don't have a nice collection of role players or youth... that's just a bad situation. The Nets have a good piece to add to LBJ... but I don't think Devin Harris would play well with LBJ like some others do. If LBJ signs up with the Nets, it'll be mostly because it'd be the cool thing to do -- and I think even he's more mature than that.

What about the Clippers or any other team with cap space?
No.

What about Dallas, Houston, the Lakers, or any other team pursuing a sign-and-trade
Hmm... this is where things get interesting. First of all, I never even mentioned this but -- I don't think Lebron will easily give up the $30MM on the contract he could sign with Cleveland. I'm not saying he won't -- I'm just saying it won't be easy. If he wants to win championships, I think he'd want to sign up with a well-stocked team -- not completely depleted like of his current options. Also, I think if he does leave he will be VERY guilty to be leaving Cleveland -- it's probably feel like cheating on his wife or 20 years and ditching her for a younger, prettier girl. While he did it for reasons he can justify to himself, he still knows he's an ass and totally ruined someone's life. So, via sign and trade, he can try to soften some of the blow.

When I try to picture the perfect team to put around Lebron, I actually start to come around to thinking the Rockets would be the perfect situation (hear me out).

PG: He needs someone who can knock down the open 3 at an elite percentage and someone to be able to handle the ball, create while he rests, and plays well in transition -- Aaron Brooks fits that bill as well as any PG in the league.

SG: He needs a SG who can knock down the open 3, can play almost exclusively off the ball and finish cuts, and can play lockdown defense on the other team's best back-court player -- hello Trevor Ariza, Shane Battier, and Chase Buddinger combo.

SF: His backup should be able to carry a scoring load while he's out and keep energy high: Hello Chase Buddinger.

PF: He needs a partner for his high-pick and roll game -- somebody who can step out and hit the jumper or roll to the basket and finish his feed... Luis Scola was born for this role and Jordan Hill isn't too far off from that. Not sure what Patterson will provide once in the league, but you don't NEED him at this point.

C: He needs a center who can keep defenders honest when he drives to the basket as an offensive threat and somebody who can give him another option in half-court sets to take pressure off of himself from setting every play up... hello Yao Ming.

Houston could trade Kevin Martin (giving the Cavs some much needed scoring), Jared Jeffries (cap room for Melo '12), Jordan Hill (young lottery player with untapped talent), and picks and it would make Cleveland better than if Lebron just walked away.

Now, I don't expect Lebron to go anywhere without a big name player, but a man can dream, can't he?
HotardAg07
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Oh yeah -- I think the most likely destination for Lebron is actually Cleveland, but that's not a greater than 50% chance. I just don't think there are any great options for him and I think the guilt/money thing will be a lot for him to overcome.
Old School Rucking
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Nets
Know Your Enemy
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Bulls
Guitarsoup
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quote:
I don't think Lebron will easily give up the $30MM on the contract he could sign with Cleveland.

It really isn't as much as it seems.

Look at a 5y contract in Cleveland vs a 5y contract anywhere else. The difference is Cle can up him 10.5%/year and everyone else can up him 8% a year. The bulk of that money is from Cleveland getting to offer him a 6th year. But he would just make that 6th year up on his next contract, it isn't a big deal.

He is really losing ~7mm over 5 years. But he is also making nearly 100mm/year in endorsements, so losing out on that cash over the course of his contract is basically pocket change to go to a team where he can really win.

The cash really doesn't factor into it.
Guitarsoup
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And I realize that you want Bron on your team - everyone does - but I don't think Houston is the best situation for him. You have no power forward and Yao is a lot more than a big question mark at this point.

A shooter isn't that hard to find. Houston isn't more attractive than Noah/Bosh/Deng/Bron/Rose/Gibson or Lopez/Bosh/Bron/Lee/Harris.

Cleveland doesn't want to pull a S&T. They ahve said this repeatedly. Not sure KMart or Battier is going to be the foundation of their new team. Martin is injury prone and Battier is 32.
BarryProfit
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yeah, i would be all for it as a rockets fan, but OP is smokin' something.
HotardAg07
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I never said bron to houston was likely, just that it was complimentary of his skills.

cleveland is most likely, then chicago, then miami
Guitarsoup
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It isn't a very good fit, especially not compared to New Jersey and Chicago.
wheelsoff
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if you were to rank the chances of the teams meeting with him..i think it would go like this..

1. bulls
2. cavs
3. knicks
4. nets
5. heat
6. clippers
TexAgs1992
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1. Bulls
2. Cavs
3. Heat
4. Nets
5. Mavs
6. Knicks
Know Your Enemy
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1. Bulls
2. Cavs
3. Nets
4. Heat
5. Clippers
ATM9000
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1. Cavs
2. Nets
3. Bulls
4. Knicks
5. Heat
6. Clippers
Diet Cokehead
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Here is what I think Lebron could/should do if he feels guilty about leaving Cleveland high and dry.

Sign a 3 year contract with deal with CLE with an option to opt out after the 2nd year. Set the expectation that he didn't want to leave them high and dry and that he is going to try to finish what he started, but that he is only giving it 2 more years before moving on.

After that, he is going to Brooklyn to open the new arena and join forces with Jay-Z and The Russian in what would become the most advertised and anticipated sporting event for the next 2 years.

He still tries to give Cleveland a Championship. He then gets to go join his buddy Jay-Z. He avoids playing in Newark. He becomes THE BRAND of the Brooklyn franchise (which is what he really cares about more than winning). It gives The Russian another 2 years to figure out how he's going to make the team better while still being able to pay Lebron. Lebron is only 27.


Having said all of that, if he really cares about winning as many Championships as possible, then he needs to take Bosh with him to Chicago and call it a day.

I think he cares more about building a brand though and my idea makes some sense I think.

[This message has been edited by Diet Cokehead (edited 7/2/2010 3:16p).]
HotardAg07
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James hasn’t been convinced that he can overcome the $30 million difference between possible Cleveland and New York offers through endorsements and other streams of revenue. However, Russian billionaire Mikhail Prokhorov’s vision of bulking up James’ international portfolio did resonate with him, and the Nets’ vision of using Brooklyn and the owner’s international muscle does appeal to him.
HotardAg07
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^
From ESPN
Pen Is Mightier
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quote:

James hasn’t been convinced that he can overcome the $30 million difference between possible Cleveland and New York offers through endorsements and other streams of revenue. However, Russian billionaire Mikhail Prokhorov’s vision of bulking up James’ international portfolio did resonate with him, and the Nets’ vision of using Brooklyn and the owner’s international muscle does appeal to him.


i find this to be hilarious

brooklyn and manhattan are both nyc, so selling the idea of "brooklyn" is idiotic. They are both selling him that he could be a big deal in nyc
Guitarsoup
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Also dumb. The bulk of that 30mm comes from the 6th year that Cleveland can offer and no one else can. James makes that 6th year up on his following contract.
Diet Cokehead
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James can either get a 6 year deal from Cleveland or a 5 year deal from any other team.

The only difference in salary is that Cleveland can give him a 10.5% raise and the other teams can only give him a 8% raise each year.

Let's not forget Lebron is only going to be 30 in 5 years so he's not going to have problems getting paid that extra year. The 2.5% difference is pretty insignificant.

People are thinking that $30M is real money, but for a young player like Lebron, it doesn't matter. In fact, Lebron could request a player option with a new team after year 3 in which they would have his Bird Rights and could sign an extension earning the full 10.5% after only 2 raises. In that situation, the difference in real dollars that he would lose not signing with Cleveland would be less than $1M.

[This message has been edited by Diet Cokehead (edited 7/3/2010 1:32a).]
Pen Is Mightier
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here's a really good breakdown

Guitarsoup
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Nice. So the real difference is about 4mm.
Pen Is Mightier
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yep. not much difference at all
Guitarsoup
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Here is your ridiculous trade of the night:
If Chicago decides to go for Bosh+Wade, and Bron decides to resign with Cleveland and give them one more chance:

Chicago outgoing:
Luol Deng 11.36
James Johnson 1.7
Taj Gibson 1.1
-------------------
14.16mm

Chicago incoming:
Delonte West: 4.66 (unguaranteed)
Joel Pryzbilla 7.4
Nicolas Batum 1.2
-----------------
13.26mm (8.6mm after you cut that mother****er West)


Portland outgoing:
Joel Pryzbilla 7.4
Jerryd Bayless 2.2
Nic Batum 1.2
Dre Miller 7.2
--------------------
18mm

Portland Incoming:
James Johnson 1.7
Jamaro Moon 3.0
Tony Parker 13.5
--------------
18.2mm


SA Outgoing
Parker: 13.5
------------
13.5mm

SA Incoming:
Deng 11.36
Taj 1.1
Bayless 2.2
-------------------
14.66mm


Cleveland outgoing:
West: 4.66
Moon 3.0
-------
7.66mm

Cleveland Incoming:
Dre Miller 7.2mm

New Rosters:

Chicago:
Noah/Pryzybilla
Bosh
Batum
Wade
Rose

Why Chicago does it:
Chicago hates losing Johnson and Gibson, but they really need to to get the space under the cap. You really don't want to lose them, but it is made up for by having the best starting 5 in the NBA. Having this team, and you still have your MLE to go after a 6th man or starting SF (Mike Miller, Anthony Morrow, Kyle Korver?). Veterans will line up to cash in on the Wade/Rose/Noah/Bosh train (Shaq, I'm looking at you)

PORTLAND:
Odom/Camby
TheMarcus
Babbitt/Johnson/Moon
Roy/Fernandez/Williams
Tony Parker/AmonJohnson

Why Portland does it:
They have been wanting a legitimate PG for a long time, and Parker is the answer. Now they are young and RAW at SF, but that is overcome by them being pretty terrific at the other 4 positions. Portland now will use their MLE for frontcourt depth and they are set.

Spurs:
Dice/Splitter
Duncan/Blair
Deng/Gibson
Ginobili/Anderson
Hill/Bayless

Why the Spurs do it:
Parker wants to test the free agency waters. This makes the Spurs shallow at SG/PG, but it makes them deep at SF/Post. Hill/Bayless is a scary combo at PG, but look at the west now:
LA has Blake
Portland has Parker
Utah is probably losing Boozer and will suck
Dallas has Kidd
OKC has Westbrook
NOH has paul, but will continue to suck.
Phoenix has Nash, but they lost Amare and will suck.
Really the only PG you are worried about in the playoffs is Parker, and if there is any PG Pop knows, it is TP. Another weakness in this lineup is 3 point shooting. The Spurs now have a core that includes Jerryd Bayless, DeJuan Blair, Luol Deng, Tiago Splitter, Taj Gibson, James Anderson and George Hill. That is a lot of youth. And vets Ginobili, Duncan, and McDyess to lead them.

Cleveland
Varajao
Jamison/Hickson
LeBron
MoWilliams/Parker
DreMiller/Boobie

Cleveland still has their issues. Trying to get more post help with their MLE (talking about Haywood right now. Ultimately, Cleveland would do anything to keep Bron, and if they give Chicago Wade+Bosh to keep Bron, they are happy to do it. In the meantime, they upgrade at PG. Not the best trade, but they would do West (who is gone no matter what) and Moon for Andre Miller any day of the week.

So there you have it. Fun, ridiculous trade of the night.
ATM9000
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Internet blogs have completely shot ESPN's credibility... actually, internet blogs have basically completely ruined all sports journalism credibility.

I don't buy that the $30 mil income thing is a real concern of Lebron's. If income were Lebron's real concern, he'd understand he needs to win titles to go to the next level of money make and already have signed in Chicago.

[This message has been edited by ATM9000 (edited 7/3/2010 7:03a).]
HotardAg07
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One thing I never considered is that lebron must go through the wade/bosh heat every year if he chooses ny chi or cle. While his team might look good on psper, its hard to see any of them looking better than the heat. If you can't be sure you'll beat them, join them?
MW03
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Given all the hoopla around the decision, I bet he's going to chicago. He'll talk about what Jordan meant to him growing up, why he wears number 23, etc. Wouldn't be surprised to see his highness make an appearance either.
Pen Is Mightier
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new york newsday newspaper is reporting through multiple sources that LBJ will be going to miami
Diet Cokehead
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Does Lebron even know at this point?
Pen Is Mightier
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lol i have no idea, but that's what an NYC reporter reported. All of the ESPN and CLE reporters are saying their sources haven't said anything of that nature
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