When tu wins, they generate 7-9 explosive plays per game, and almost always to Livingstone and Wingo.
When tu loses, they generate 2-4 big plays per game, and are outscored 42-0 in the 4th quarter (they quit)

MOST of the big plays happen early in games... but requires some level of balance with run/pass options. In games where the run was taken away, the QB pressured, all the passes were short/controlled and explosive plays were highly limited.

tu's offense is built around chunk gains... Wingo and Livingstone stretch the field and Manning converts drives into TD's.

In summary, if tu peels off large chunk plays, they win...
They lose when defenses force them into short, methodical drives...

Texas A&M is averaging 38pts/game
Texas is averaging 29pts/game

Texas A&M is allowing 21pts/game
Texas is allowing 20pts/game

With tu's weak running game, and weak passing defense, A&M has (2) units which have clear advantages... A&M should hold Texas to around ~340yards in this game, ~24 points, if turnovers are not a big advantage. Texas should hold A&M to around ~400yards in this game, ~31 points, if turnovers are not a big advantage.

Likely outcome score based on season averages and unit strengths A&M 31, tu 24

If you give home field advantage any weighting, it could be closer, A&M 31, tu 27

If A&M's passing game (30th ranked) is able to take advantage of tu's passing defense (106th ranked), it could be a more lopsided score - A&M 38, tu 21

If A&M is able to neutralize tu's offense, it could be a more lopsided score - A&M 41, tu 17

However, if Texas is able to hit big plays and get into the neutral zone against A&M, they will likely score TD's at a rate of 93%. This could give Texas the advantage - big plays, into neutral zone, and convert TD's.

The most likely outcome is A&M 31, Texas 24

(I changed many of the Texas to tu)

According to 10 games simulated between the two, A&M won 6/10...

of 818 simulations run, tu won 315 times (38.5%), A&M won 503 times (61.5%)

tu won by > 20points 5.5% of the time
A&M won by > 20points 12.8% of the time

(mygamesim.com)

tu secondary breaks down in coverage with a QB who can improvise and extend plays with his legs like Marcel. We're going to win by 2+ scores. Moss will be the key and Craver, Concepcion, and ABR are going to feast.

Everyone is sleeping on 3rd down defense. It's currently 24%. To put that into historical perspective..4 teams in the last 25 years have finished with 25% or less. The is legendary elite territory.

Given ut's weak run game, and poor OL play… they are going to have a bad day. Sure they can pad stats on defense that can't pressure, but that won't happen against this DL

if we can get to halftime no worse than tied, i'm going to be feeling really good.

Demo_Slug said:

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Everyone is sleeping on 3rd down defense. It's currently 24%. To put that into historical perspective..4 teams in the last 25 years have finished with 25% or less. The is legendary elite territory.

Given ut's weak run game, and poor OL play… they are going to have a bad day. Sure they can pad stats on defense that can't pressure, but that won't happen against this DL

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I have to think Sark and everyone we play will be planning for 2 down play calls... avoiding all 3rd downs.

Sark is truly a genius. An offensive minded juggernaut.

jturner181 said:

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When tu wins, they generate 7-9 explosive plays per game, and almost always to Livingstone and Wingo.
When tu loses, they generate 2-4 big plays per game, and are outscored 42-0 in the 4th quarter (they quit)

MOST of the big plays happen early in games... but requires some level of balance with run/pass options. In games where the run was taken away, the QB pressured, all the passes were short/controlled and explosive plays were highly limited.

tu's offense is built around chunk gains... Wingo and Livingstone stretch the field and Manning converts drives into TD's.

In summary, if tu peels off large chunk plays, they win...
They lose when defenses force them into short, methodical drives...

Texas A&M is averaging 38pts/game
Texas is averaging 29pts/game

Texas A&M is allowing 21pts/game
Texas is allowing 20pts/game

With tu's weak running game, and weak passing defense, A&M has (2) units which have clear advantages... A&M should hold Texas to around ~340yards in this game, ~24 points, if turnovers are not a big advantage. Texas should hold A&M to around ~400yards in this game, ~31 points, if turnovers are not a big advantage.

Likely outcome score based on season averages and unit strengths A&M 31, tu 24

If you give home field advantage any weighting, it could be closer, A&M 31, tu 27

If A&M's passing game (30th ranked) is able to take advantage of tu's passing defense (106th ranked), it could be a more lopsided score - A&M 38, tu 21

If A&M is able to neutralize tu's offense, it could be a more lopsided score - A&M 41, tu 17

However, if Texas is able to hit big plays and get into the neutral zone against A&M, they will likely score TD's at a rate of 93%. This could give Texas the advantage - big plays, into neutral zone, and convert TD's.

The most likely outcome is A&M 31, Texas 24

(I changed many of the Texas to tu)

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Quick note: 31 is the fewest points we have scored in a game (SC and Miss St) in the last 7 weeks...
Supremely confident that our offense can score and tu cannot keep up.

No offense but I only take analysis from one person. Spreadsheet Ag or bust!

If we can start strong on offense, push them to 3rd and long, consistently put pressure on Arch, and not give up blocked punts, should be a manageable game for us.

My main concern at the moment is protecting the punter…

We need spreadsheet Ags
what say you?

Officiating is going to play a big role

Over/under on how many Reed rushing TD's the refs wipe off the board is 1.5.

Officiating is going to be a big factor, I'm afraid… Did you factor in the referees?

Or is that what you were referring to when you mentioned "holding"?

Worst case scenario…. (Phooey! I am no longer going to indulge in mentally figuring ways of losing… am exorcising that particular demon)

Interesting but when tu plays a good team they don't generate big plays. When the QB has excessive time and the DB's are slow playing zone they score.

I contend that other than Arkansas who did not have enough healthy players, tu has struggled in every game against SEC competition.

Manning must throw quickly to avoid a good D-line rush and blitz. Hence, tu's high frequency of screen plays and short yardage slant patterns over the middle. Chunk plays most often result from YAC and QB scrambles.

Our secondary will get burned via completions or PI penalties if Manning has time to throw. Their two receivers are as good as ours.

I hope Elko kicks away from Wingo. He is as good a returner as KC. It's better to give up 10 yards of field position by kicking OB than to give him a chance at a big return. If one guy beats the Ags, it is likely to be him catching passes and returning kicks. Belichick's approach to not allowing a single player to dominate a game comes to mind.

Sanford should be the spy on Manning, every play. I anticipate that effective pressure on Manning is the key to winning.

Elko's biggest decisions may be to attempt fourth down offensive plays instead of trying to kick FGs. He knows he may have to score 35+ to win.

The Ags have yet to play a complete game in all respects. Playing catch-up against tu in Austin is a dangerous situation.

Finally, the officiating is an absolute wild card.

I don't understand anyone picking the Ags to lose, without a presumption of sub-par performance in one of the three aspects of the game or multiple, significant errors/turnovers being made. Ags have the better QB, OL, DL, WRs (collectively), TEs, and RBs. Nevertheless, I expect a brutal dog fight. Bring it on!

Another factor: Texas LB Ty'Anthony Smith was ejected for targeting vs. Arkansas, and to miss the first half of the Texas A&M game