I don't see how.

I think Miami takes their place.

If it's a close game, yes. They won't punish loser of an extra game. It's a "data point". See SMU last year. They lost and still got in

Most of the zoo claims committee wants texas in because "eyeballs". So why would they keep bama out two years in a row?

Yes 100%

They will not punish them for playing in a CG game

It depends on what happens in other games.

For example, if BYU beats Tceh in the Big 11am Championship, probably both BYU and Tceh make the playoffs, and Gump gets squeezed out.

It doesn't really matter; Bama wouldn't make it very far in the playoff anyway.

Yes

I don't think we have enough data points (one season) for a clear precedent to be set yet. I think it depends largely on what else happens around the country and the nature of the CCG loss.

Alabama would make it. Texas A&M last year if they beat tu and then lost to tu in the cg. Interesting.

The optics of excluding a team because they made the championship game of the best conference would be really bad, made all the more egregious by the fact that their omission would reward a team which did NOT earn a spot in a CCG. (unless it's Tech after losing to BYU).

BMX Bandit said:

---

If it's a close game, yes. They won't punish loser of an extra game. It's a "data point". See SMU last year. They lost and still got in

Most of the zoo claims committee wants texas in because "eyeballs". So why would they keep bama out two years in a row?

---

I have some ocean front property just outside of Phoenix I'd sell you for a song.

If Bama loses via a blowout, they will be left out.

Nevermind.

Bama has already reached their high-water mark for this season. Nothing to see here.

Josh Pate says...

just because last year's committee protected SMU...that doesn't mean this year's committee would

what if the last spot comes down to Alabama (title game loser) and Notre Dame?

Bama would be a 10 win team. Takes a a lot to
Keep a 10 win team from the sec out.

W said:

---

Josh Pate says...

just because last year's committee protected SMU...that doesn't mean this year's committee would

what if the last spot comes down to Alabama (title game loser) and Notre Dame?

---

Obviously, Notre Dame would prevail.

W said:

---

Josh Pate says...

just because last year's committee protected SMU...that doesn't mean this year's committee would

what if the last spot comes down to Alabama (title game loser) and Notre Dame?

---

Then it goes to Alabama. Schedule better. Notre dame doesn't have one signature win.

If this happens and bama gets left out, conference title games will go extinct very soon and there is too much money in them. Teams will not be punished for title games.

the real question is whether TAMU is better off losing to texas.

It is still the same number of games, but instead you play UNT at home instead of bama / georgia in Atlanta

that depends on the outcome of Oregon-USC this weekend

Close loss in SECCG then absolutely they should make the field of 12 . Blowout loss … maybe not. Depends on what happens elsewhere imo.

Didn't UGA lose the SEC champ game and miss the playoffs. That was before 12 team I think but it wouldn't be impossible.

depends on the "eye test"

The winner/loser of the SEC/Big 10 game is going to get in, if Alabama wins the Iron Bowl, they'll get in. If they lose, does a 9-3 Bama get in over a 10-2 BYU/Vandy/Miami, that will be a tough call. I don't know how much the committee weighs the strength of schedule of a team vs. the record of the team, my SEC bias says that Bama did have a much more difficult schedule than any ACC or BIG 12 team. BUT they were handled by Florida State that turned out not to be very good. They should get in, but committee set a precedent last year of 3 losses and you're out, so I don't think they'll get an at large bid.

TyperWoods said:

---

It depends on what happens in other games.

For example, if BYU beats Tceh in the Big 11am Championship, probably both BYU and Tceh make the playoffs, and Gump gets squeezed out.

---

Bingo.

This is the one scenario in which bama gets left out

Why?

Because they would get left out in this scenario even if the didn't lose the ccg

At number 10, the last at large in this years field, Bama gets pushed down a spot because byu would jump in as b12 champ and tech would still be in because they are so high up and you don't punish ccg losers

So bama falls to 11 and is out

Bama needs tech to beat byu in the b12 title game or they are screwed if they don't win the sec

Something tells me, however, that Bama is going to have a tough time at Auburn and may wind up losing that game

Davidtheag said:

---

The winner/loser of the SEC/Big 10 game is going to get in, if Alabama wins the Iron Bowl, they'll get in. If they lose, does a 9-3 Bama get in over a 10-2 BYU/Vandy/Miami, that will be a tough call. I don't know how much the committee weighs the strength of schedule of a team vs. the record of the team, my SEC bias says that Bama did have a much more difficult schedule than any ACC or BIG 12 team. BUT they were handled by Florida State that turned out not to be very good. They should get in, but committee set a precedent last year of 3 losses and you're out, so I don't think they'll get an at large bid.

---

A loss in the iron bowl and bama is done. They will drop like a rock

Final CFP rankings need to come out before the CCGs. Then after the CCGs, see if there are any unexpected auto bids and fill out the brackets from there. That way a conference title only helps you.

As it stands, there is still a one in a billion chance we don't make the playoffs if we lose to Samford (lol), lose to Texas, Bama loses, Ole Miss loses, we make the SEC championship game, and then lose it. I think a 10-2 A&M team with no SEC championship game appearance could still make it to the CFP, but I doubt a 3 loss A&M team makes would in this crazy scenario.

If you think losses to Samford and Texas would theoretically be enough to keep us out regardless of the CCG, then to make this hypothetical scenario more believable, replace Samford with USC, and I think the above still applies. A 10-2 team with losses to #15 USC and #17 Texas probably still makes it in, but a 10-3 team on a 3 game skid with losses to USC, Texas, & Georgia probably doesn't.

A lot of words to say a conference championship appearance should only help you, not hurt you.

the real question here is if A&M goes 12-0. then loses the SEC championship game, would we still get a top 4?

Nm. Didn't read your post carefully . That is a real question

Bag said:

---

Yes 100%

They will not punish them for playing in a CG game

---

Correct fur the SEC and Big 10.

Probably.

bgrimm05 said:

---

A 10-2 team with losses to #15 USC and #17 Texas probably still makes it in, but a 10-3 team on a 3 game skid with losses to USC, Texas, & Georgia probably doesn't.

---

are you suggesting South Carolina is 8-2 USC...?


actually it seems you're imagining some remote arbitrary scenario where we had scheduled a late season game vs Southern Cal, prob woulda been less confusing to use GT

Bag said:

---

the real question is whether TAMU is better off losing to texas.

It is still the same number of games, but instead you play UNT at home instead of bama / georgia in Atlanta

---

NEVAH!!!! You heathen!!!!

W said:

---

Josh Pate says...

just because last year's committee protected SMU...that doesn't mean this year's committee would

what if the last spot comes down to Alabama (title game loser) and Notre Dame?

---

Yes, I watched his podcast this morning. He points out the Committee's so-called "criteria" vary week to week as they try to justify their chosen picks. That Notre Dame loss to Miami doesn't matter, apparently because head to head only counts when the two of them are in the same 3-4 team tranche. The Committee won't even say definitively if they are using a 3 team or a 4 team tranche or even larger? No transparency to their actual process. At least not thus far..

ETA: Mike Leach said it well.

Never forget when Mike Lech put a clown suit on the College Football Playoff committee in 2017.

This has aged like a fine wine. 🍷 pic.twitter.com/kocKx7lalA

— College Sports Only (@CSOonX) November 19, 2025

Bama is the only team that could possibly miss out.

However, it is highly unlikely.

Bama wins out and loses SECCG by a large margin. For example...A&M 56, Bama 0.

Bama would probably be out.

A&M, GA, or Ole Miss losing the SECCG will not miss the CFP.



Two other highly unlikely possibilities would be if A&M lost to Samford, or GA lose to Charlotte and/or GT, and then lose the SECCG.