Never can or will match Raptor's predictions......

Here's a stats-driven prediction for Texas A&M at Missouri (Sat, Nov 8, 2025, 2:30pm CT, Faurot Field). (Houston Chronicle)
What I fed into the model (season to date):

• Efficiency & scoring:
  
  • Mizzou: 35.4 ppg; allows 16.8 ppg; 6.12 yds/play on offense; defense allows 4.44 yds/play. (CFB Stats)
  • Texas A&M: 37.8 ppg; allows 23.6 ppg; 6.69 yds/play on offense; defense allows 5.10 yds/play. (CFB Stats)
• Strength ratings (schedule-adjusted): A&M SRS 23.38 (No. 2), SOS No. 5; Mizzou SRS 11.17 (No. 28), SOS No. 60. (Sports Reference)
• QB situation: Mizzou starter Beau Pribula suffered a significant leg/ankle injury vs Vanderbilt; freshman Matt Zollers is expected to go. (Reuters)
• Market baseline for sanity-check: Aggies 6.5, total ~4849.5. (Covers.com)

Method (quick):
I blended each team's scoring with the opponent's defensive allow rate, adjusted for strength of schedule (SRS), added ~2.5 pts HFA to Missouri, and applied a 3 pt offensive adjustment to Mizzou for the QB change. I then ran 200,000 Monte Carlo simulations using a Poisson scoring model.
Simulation outputs

• Mean score: Texas A&M 27.6 Missouri 21.9
• Win probability: A&M 77%, Mizzou 19% (4% tied at end of regulation; college OT resolves ties).
• Cover probability (A&M 6.5): 45%
• Over 48.5: 55%
• Median margin: A&M by 6 (IQR: +1 to +10)

My predicted final score: Texas A&M 28, Missouri 21.
Why: A&M's schedule-adjusted quality edge (SRS +12.2 on a neutral), plus Missouri's QB downgrade, outweighs the Tigers' stout defensive metrics (which are partly buoyed by a lighter SOS). This lands right near the consensus spread/total and is consistent with A&M's undefeated profile and recent form. (Sports Reference)
If you want, I can tweak the assumptions (e.g., different QB impact or weather) and re-run the sims for alternate scenarios.

I think the strength of schedule for Miz should have a higher weight. They have a weak strength of schedule. See Miami going in to LU or SMU.....

The 200,000 Monte Carlo simulations was interesting....

By the way, here's the prompt if anyone wants to check out other games...

" pretend your an expert statistician and quant mathematician, take all the stats you know this season of the Missouri Tigers football team and the Texas A&M football team. The game is at 2:30pm tomorrow at Tiger's home field. Running simulations, predict the score."