This is a fantastic deep dive! Not sure of the validity of his predictions but either way, it's a neat window into the upcoming season.



And here's a neat article highlighting the Aggies:
https://www.cfbhourglass.com/home/2025/6/26/2025-top-10-cfp-dark-horses

I know we've been burned in the past and in before the "8-4" comments, but I like the analysis. There's a lot to like about the Aggies this year! Judging by the past three years of predictions, we seem to come up one short on their projections so 9-3 is most likely. The game that will flip that script in my opinion is the Notre Dame game but Auburn and South Carolina will again be tough but we get both of those games at home.

https://www.cfbhourglass.com/home/2024/7/8/2024-texas-aampm-predictions-on-the-hg?rq=2024%20sec

Here is the 2024 prediction which had us at 9-3, the sole outlier was the South Carolina game, but they had every other game correct, even the loss at Auburn and the win vs LSU. Pretty impressive.

https://www.cfbhourglass.com/home/2023/5/8/2023-sec-football-projections?rq=2023%20sec

And here is the SEC projections for 2023 which correctly had us at 8-4. Obviously we underachieved there at 7-5.

Ignore the preseason hype to sell views

8-4 is the real prediction

We lose all 3 big road games and drop a game at home we shouldn't.

Hmmmm…We have gone 8-4 a total of 8 times in the past 20 seasons and 6 times in the 13 seasons thus far in the SEC.

Approximately 40% of the time in recent history.

Since we went 8-4 last season then the probability of going 8-4 for a second consecutive season is (.4)(.4) =0.16 = 16% chance.

Of course I am using my fuzzy memories of stat probability class. But if Vegas had a bet on whether Ags go 8-4 or different record…I'd have no choice to place the bet on the different record (worse or better).

Of course I hope it is the 9-3 or better side of the coin.

Pumpkinhead said:

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Hmmmm…We have gone 8-4 a total of 8 times in the past 20 seasons and 6 times in the 13 seasons thus far in the SEC.

Approximately 40% of the time in recent history.

Since we went 8-4 last season then the probability of going 8-4 for a second consecutive season is (.4)(.4) =0.16 = 16% chance.

Of course I am using my fuzzy memories of stat probability class. But if Vegas had a bet on whether Ags go 8-4 or different record…I'd have no choice to place the bet on the different record (worse or better).

Of course I hope it is the 9-3 or better side of the coin.

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I think this is going to be a season where we fall below the 7.5-5 average but I'm also hoping for 9-3 or better. It's the same schedule as last season but tougher being the home/away flipped

Each year, the kool-aid flows. Wash, rinse, repeat.






We ARE Texas 8&4 until we prove otherwise.

it would be historic for the program to win 3 of its 5 road games

especially since all 5 games are against P-4 opponents

not sure the Ags have done that this century without a Heisman winning QB (2012) or worldwide pandemic (2020)

Texas 12-0??????

Good Lord.

Second season of a new head coach is where you start to see if they are on the right track.

Also will be a benefit to have a QB that is ready to go game 1 and a veteran O-line. In this day and age, two very important areas.

This 2026 recruiting class looks like this regime is focused so it's going to be fun watching this season play out.

So every prediction seems to have us a game higher than we actually finished.

So they say 10-2 which means 9-3 actual finish

NyAggie said:

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So every prediction seems to have us a game higher than we actually finished.

So they say 10-2 which means 9-3 actual finish

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Given it's the Aggies we are talking about it will more than likely be 7-5.

It's the clickbait season?!?

Pumpkinhead said:

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Of course I am using my fuzzy memories of stat probability class. But if Vegas had a bet on whether Ags go 8-4 or different record…I'd have no choice to place the bet on the different record (worse or better).

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You can kind of get to that bet if you shop sites and odds. The three sites I have seen have us at:

BetMGM - O7.5 -165.
Draft Kings - O8.5 +125.
Bally Sports - O8 -106

So you put $100 on U7.5 on Bet MGM. It will pay approximately +140.
You put $100 on O8.5 on Draft Kings. It way pay +125.

So you win $40 if we win 7 or less. You win $25 if we win 9 or more. You lose $200 if we win 8. Probably not the right odds even if you really think it is a 16% chance, but Vegas and it's gamblers sure seems to think 8 is the number.

NyAggie said:

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So every prediction seems to have us a game higher than we actually finished.

So they say 10-2 which means 9-3 actual finish

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That appears to be the case. I find it interesting that the one game that we let slip was the South Carolina game. Truly was an anomaly. Looking at the schedule, the other game that looks to fit the bill might be the road game to Arkansas or Missouri though both teams should take significant steps back this year. Here's to Elko for breaking the Aggie curse which seems to have mired this fanbase in very regrettable ways.

mjhhawk said:

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Pumpkinhead said:

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Of course I am using my fuzzy memories of stat probability class. But if Vegas had a bet on whether Ags go 8-4 or different record…I'd have no choice to place the bet on the different record (worse or better).

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You can kind of get to that bet if you shop sites and odds. The three sites I have seen have us at:

BetMGM - O7.5 -165.
Draft Kings - O8.5 +125.
Bally Sports - O8 -106

So you put $100 on U7.5 on Bet MGM. It will pay approximately +140.
You put $100 on O8.5 on Draft Kings. It way pay +125.

So you win $40 if we win 7 or less. You win $25 if we win 9 or more. You lose $200 if we win 8. Probably not the right odds even if you really think it is a 16% chance, but Vegas and it's gamblers sure seems to think 8 is the number.

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Of course a notable le flaw in my (.4)(.4) =0.16 = 16% chance probability calculation is that assumes completely independent 'coin flips'.

Sure, if you flip a coin twice there is a (.5)(.5) =0.25 = 25% chance of getting two heads.Assuming coin flips completely independent.

But THERE IS some correlation between two consecutive football seasons. there is some carry over with regards to rosters and coaches and then you got schedule differences that skew things. So it isn't like flipping a coin.

And of course the math nerds in Vegas are a lot smarter than I am!

I think we have a floor of 7-5 (6-1 home and 1-4 away) and a ceiling of 10-2 (7-0 home and 3-2 away), and I am predicting 9-3 (7-0 home and 2-3 away) with losses to Notre Dame, LSU, and Texas. But I won't be surprised if we lose those 3 big road games against top 10 teams and 1 or 2 additional games against Florida (home), Arkansas (away), Missouri (away), or South Carolina (home). If we go 8-4 (5-3 SEC) with at least one November SEC win, I hope we win our bowl game to finish 9-4 (5-3 SEC), which would be a much better finish than ending last season with 4 consecutive losses to Power 4 opponents.

Pumpkinhead said:

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mjhhawk said:

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Pumpkinhead said:

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Of course I am using my fuzzy memories of stat probability class. But if Vegas had a bet on whether Ags go 8-4 or different record…I'd have no choice to place the bet on the different record (worse or better).

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You can kind of get to that bet if you shop sites and odds. The three sites I have seen have us at:

BetMGM - O7.5 -165.
Draft Kings - O8.5 +125.
Bally Sports - O8 -106

So you put $100 on U7.5 on Bet MGM. It will pay approximately +140.
You put $100 on O8.5 on Draft Kings. It way pay +125.

So you win $40 if we win 7 or less. You win $25 if we win 9 or more. You lose $200 if we win 8. Probably not the right odds even if you really think it is a 16% chance, but Vegas and it's gamblers sure seems to think 8 is the number.

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Of course a notable le flaw in my (.4)(.4) =0.16 = 16% chance probability calculation is that assumes completely independent 'coin flips'.

Sure, if you flip a coin twice there is a (.5)(.5) =0.25 = 25% chance of getting two heads.Assuming coin flips completely independent.

But THERE IS some correlation between two consecutive football seasons. there is some carry over with regards to rosters and coaches and then you got schedule differences that skew things. So it isn't like flipping a coin.

And of course the math nerds in Vegas are a lot smarter than I am!

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I say we throw caution to the wind and load up on the plus money at Draft Kings for O8.5. Who's with me??

TexasAggie_97 said:

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NyAggie said:

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So every prediction seems to have us a game higher than we actually finished.

So they say 10-2 which means 9-3 actual finish

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Given it's the Aggies we are talking about it will more than likely be 7-5.

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Probably 8-4

I'm predicting something like 22-12. making the tournament. perhaps reaching the S16.

10-2? It must be July!

Richleau12 said:

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https://www.cfbhourglass.com/home/2023/5/8/2023-sec-football-projections?rq=2023%20sec

And here is the SEC projections for 2023 which correctly had us at 8-4. Obviously we underachieved there at 7-5.

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Jake Wimberly's 2023 SEC projections correctly predicted we would finish with a 4-4 SEC record, but we underachieved by losing a Power 4 nonconference game at Miami. Also, I noticed that the sum of the 2023 SEC projections across the 14 teams was 58 conference wins, but the total should have been 56 conference wins because 56 conference games were played annually when there were 14 SEC teams. That means the CFB Hourglass prediction model overcounted by 2 conference wins. I analyzed the projections to determine who the projected conference losses were for each team, and I think that model gave Kentucky and Arkansas one extra conference win each.

Im predicting we start the season with a loss to utSA

That's certainly a vibe.

Juan Lee Pettimore said:

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Texas 12-0??????

Good Lord.

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They have an infinitely better chance of winning 12 games than we have of winning 10.

4 said:

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Juan Lee Pettimore said:

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Texas 12-0??????

Good Lord.

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They have an infinitely better chance of winning 12 games than we have of winning 10.

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Infinitely better? No they don't.
I'd say the odds of those two metrics may be comparable, but certainly not "infinitely" better for them.

Every team on their schedule will have that week circled. Everybody loves to knock off whoever is at the top, so those teams are going to try and play up and give their best shot that week.
And the longer the season goes, especially if they still have zero losses, it's going to turn up every aspect of pressure and heat that much more.

And just my $0.02, I don't think they're built to get thru it unscathed.

Sgt. Schultz said:

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Each year, the kool-aid flows. Wash, rinse, repeat.






We ARE Texas 8&4 until we prove otherwise.

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this

I agree, not with their big time question marks on the offensive line.