You know what's brutal, 13 of the 24 losses we have had with Jimbo have been decided by one possession. Similarly, 13 of our 43 wins under Jimbo have been decided by one possession or less.

To me, that is a reflection of game management/coaching decisions in tight games. Why is it that the good guys are only pulling through 50% of the time in those contests? We are paying a fortune to someone that half the time doesn't get it done??? Would be interesting to see other head coach historical statistics in single possession games.....to me this is a KPI that truly reflects HC individual performance. Can the HC get it done in pressure situations?

Getting blown out is a separate issue related to game plan, team talent, culture, etc. and is something broader than HC to me.... Seems like we have turned the corner there??? I hope so.

Jimbo thinks he's 2010s Nick Saban. He coaches every game to be close. The problem is that Saban was successful back then because his teams played crisp and clean football and forced the other team to make the critical mistake. Fishers teams play tight and are guaranteed to make all the critical mistakes. His style and teams are a complete mismatch and he's either too stupid or too arrogant to understand that.

Jim isn't a winner, he doesn't play to win. His outdated offense is garbage as well

JC_2iron said:

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You know what's brutal, 13 of the 24 losses we have had with Jimbo have been decided by one possession. Similarly, 13 of our 43 wins under Jimbo have been decided by one possession or less.

To me, that is a reflection of game management/coaching decisions in tight games. Why is it that the good guys are only pulling through 50% of the time in those contests? We are paying a fortune to someone that half the time doesn't get it done??? Would be interesting to see other head coach historical statistics in single possession games.....to me this is a KPI that truly reflects HC individual performance. Can the HC get it done in pressure situations?

Getting blown out is a separate issue related to game plan, team talent, culture, etc. and is something broader than HC to me.... Seems like we have turned the corner there??? I hope so.

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This is a good post. Thank you.

Since his arrival, Jimbo has never been blown out. Quite remarkable considering the Fran, Sherm and Sumlin years. He deserves a ton of credit. Yet, he doesn't win enough of the close games because:

1. Game day coaching: a. Horrible clock mgmt. b. Coaching tight/not to lose. c. Not adjusting the offense to help out the QB when under pressure. d. Using the wrong personnel at key moments. e. Poor playcalling.

2. O line issues: We have highly regarding recruits two deep, yet they can't generate a push in short yardage situations. They have "lazy eyes" and consistently get burned on stunts and blitzes. They get blown up far too often.

3. Special team fiascos: Four losses dating back to last year have come as a direct result of blocked fieldgoals, a kick off return and now a punt return. If you watch the special team play closely, you will see casual effort, poor technique and discipline.

4. Failure to fix the offense. The past two weeks, this offense looks the same as before Petrino's arrival. No presnap motion. No adjustments to help the QB get the ball out quicker. Very predictable presnap alignment.
No identity. Through four games of SEC play the offense is averaging 21.75 pts/game compared to 22.75 pts/game last year.

Despite these very correctable issues, we don't get blown out! Improve each by 50% and we are winning 3/4 or more of these close games. And that's the rub. We are right on the edge of greatness Yet, Jimbo shows no indication of progress in these critical areas. It's a damn shame and bizarre..we havent' been this close in 30 years.

Are you kidding me? The average statistics are 50%, and I don't even have to look it up.

How do I know that? Every time a coach wins a close game, a coach loses a close game....

Never been blown out?

2018 - 45-23 vs. Bama
2019 - 47-28 vs. Bama, 50-7 vs. LSU
2020 - 52-24 vs. Bama
2022 - 42-24 vs. MSU, 41-24 vs. UF

Plenty of blowouts

Yeah if you did every other coach in America sure it would be 50%. Now look at the top 10-15 coaches record in close games and you will see why those coaches are at top programs.

all right....had to look it up....

in games decided by 7 points or less...

Sumlin was 18-12 as A&M's head coach

5-5 with Johnny as QB

13-7 without JF

interesting...Sumlin was 4-1 in close games in his final year 2017

Mike Sherman...

he was 7-10 at A&M in games decided by 7 points or less

including a dreadful 1-5 in 2011

Coach Fran...

believe it or not...

was 12-7 in Aggieland in games decided by 7 points or less

among the coaches he 'outdueled' in close games:

Urban Meyer
Mack Brown
Mike Leach
Bill Synder
Mike Gundy 2x
Gary Pinkel
Bobby Ross

but he was 0-3 vs. Bob Stoops

Just looked up a few other coaches to test my theory. This is clear differentiator between elite and what I would say average/above average coaches. Also interesting to see how often some coaches keep game close vs others.

Jimbo: 43-24, $9.1M, 6th season. 43-24, 13:13 ratio

Kirby S at Georgia ($10.3M, 8th season, 88-15). 7 of 15 losses. 16 of 88 wins. 16:7 close game ratio.

Saban at Bama ($11M performance based pay contract, 17th season, 195-28). 18 of 28 losses by one possession. 30 of 195 by one possession. 30:18 close game ratio.

Dabo at Clemson ($10.5M, 16th season, 165-41). 20 of 41 losses by one possession. 38 of 165 wins by one possession. 38:20 close game ratio.

Jim H. at Michigan ($8.3M, 9th season, 78-25): 12 of 25 losses decided by 1 possession or less. 13 of 78 wins by one possession or less. So about the same close game ratio but much better overall record. 13:12 ratio.

Mack B at UNC ($5M?, 5th season, 36-22) 14 of 22 losses by one possession or less. 15 of 36 wins by one possession or less. Similar ratio/results for half the price. 15:14

Josh H. at Tennessee ($9M, 3rd season, 23-9) 3 of 9 losses. 5 of 23 wins. Same price, 5:3 ratio.

James Franklin. at PSU ($7M, 10 seasons, 84-36) 20 of 36 losses. 21 of 84 wins. 21:20 close game ratio.