Notes:
- We have an opportunity for Rueben or Ainias to return one this game
- Our defense is better (on paper) than most here want to admit
- We are by far the best defense they will have faced this year
- We do not produce a lot of turnovers despite having a pretty good defense
- If our front 7 plays like they did against Auburn, they should have a great showing vs their O-Line
- KJ Jefferson is pretty damned good - despite being harassed, he completes 70% of this throws
- I expect to see alot of flags this game, both teams are awful in the penalties category

Note: our only 2 offensive categories outside the top 60 are Run Yards and Run Plays per game... honestly, I think we don't run enough; and if our OL plays like they did in the 2nd half of Auburn, we could be a pretty damn good balanced offense run vs pass...



Noticed a few flaws, but not going to fix them:
1. As pointed out by other posters; Ainias and Rueben Ht/Wt in the KR/ PR fields are wrong
2. Arkansas' best scoring quarter differential is Q1 not Q2

One of my favorite football traditions. Thanks spreadsheet!

Yep, these are season favorite. Always find myself hurrying straight to the bottom for the score predictions, then I make my way back up through the stats.

Thank you sir and the blue parachute is for you!

_89

Detmersdislocatedshoulder said:

---

thank you for the time it takes to put this together. very interesting.

what i love about the game with arkansas is that you can literally throw the stats out the window in so many words. this game is always a slobber knocker and should be fun to watch.

to me this game comes down to one thing and that's kj jefferson. arkansas has to have him play well and make plays off schedule to have a chance in this game. if we can keep him contained and squeeze the pocket i like our chances. they have two freshman tackles from what i have read. turner and diggs should have a field day.

---

I hear people say this all the time, but it isn't necessarily true. Our four best teams since joining the sec(2012, 2013, 2018, and 2020) beat them by 48, 12, 11 (and were up 25 at one point), and 7 (up 17 at one point). Basically, we controlled all 4 games for the majority of the game. All of our 8-5 or worse teams were in slobber knocker games with them, yes.

The reason we have so many close games against Arkansas is more due to the fact that in reality, we haven't been a much better team than Arkansas most years. Even if we THINK we are going into the game, the game serves as more of a sign of what's to come than the fact that Arkansas plays us tough.

There are 6 years where A&M and Arkansas were within one game of each other by years end. In other words, very close teams. 5 of those 6 were close games, just like the records would say it should be.

There were 5 years where A&M ended up the much better team by years end. 3 of those 5 years we won by double digits, and another we were up 17 most of the game and in general, controlled the game for 59 minutes until they made one final scare.

My point is, if we expect to be a good team, it shouldn't play out like so many slobber knockers. We should have a comfortable lead at some point in the game and feel in control for the majority of it. A back and forth slugfest is more indicative that we just aren't as good as we think.

Quote:

---

Notes:
- We have an opportunity for Rueben or Ainias to return one this game CHECK
- Our defense is better (on paper) than most here want to admit CHECK
- We are by far the best defense they will have faced this year CHECK
- We do not produce a lot of turnovers despite having a pretty good defense TBD
- If our front 7 plays like they did against Auburn, they should have a great showing vs their O-Line CHECK
- KJ Jefferson is pretty damned good - despite being harassed, he completes 70% of this throws
- I expect to see alot of flags this game, both teams are awful in the penalties category WTF REFS?!

Note: our only 2 offensive categories outside the top 60 are Run Yards and Run Plays per game... honestly, I think we don't run enough; and if our OL plays like they did in the 2nd half of Auburn, we could be a pretty damn good balanced offense run vs pass... Petrino, are you reading this?!

---

SpreadsheetAg said:

---

Quote:

---

Notes:
- We have an opportunity for Rueben or Ainias to return one this game CHECK
- Our defense is better (on paper) than most here want to admit CHECK
- We are by far the best defense they will have faced this year CHECK
- We do not produce a lot of turnovers despite having a pretty good defense TBD
- If our front 7 plays like they did against Auburn, they should have a great showing vs their O-Line CHECK
- KJ Jefferson is pretty damned good - despite being harassed, he completes 70% of this throws
- I expect to see alot of flags this game, both teams are awful in the penalties category WTF REFS?!

Note: our only 2 offensive categories outside the top 60 are Run Yards and Run Plays per game... honestly, I think we don't run enough; and if our OL plays like they did in the 2nd half of Auburn, we could be a pretty damn good balanced offense run vs pass... Petrino, are you reading this?!

---

---

You're a freaking wizard!