Josh Pate likes to talk about padlock stats for individual games, which is where a single stat can tell the story of a game, in a way that knowing just that stat tells you everything you need to know about the game. Extending that to a season, if you could ask for one stat ahead of the season to predict how we do this year (other than obvious stats, like final win-loss record), what would it be?

I'd either want 3rd down conversion numbers (both o and d) or turnover differential

Our Defense Yards/Rush allowed is <4.
I think the Offense figures it out and can be multiple, but this indicates we stopped the run or much improved.

Also, See:
QB Pressure % on drop backs for our OL. (Can't be Worse than last year)
Yards/Rush for our RBs
Evan Stewart: 1200 receiving yards... BOOK IT!

Probably third down efficiency.

T.O.P.

games lost by starters to injury.

the talent is on the roster but they have to be on the field. the last two years have been disasters in the injury front. that stat corrects the wins will pile up.

Profit margin on chicken wraps

Points per game

I think something like 76% of college football games are won by the team with
the fewest turnovers! So lets win that stat in every game!

4 said:

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Profit margin on chicken wraps

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You don't know the first (1st) thing about profit margin. I'll give you a hint though, my small business is flooding with it. HTH

If you tell me we score 32+ ppg I'm confident we're at least a 9 win team

Looking for a dramatic decrease in my % likelihood to post negatively on this board after an Aggie football game. I think there is a high correlation to that and game outcomes…

Next weekend, the stat to look for is Marcel Reed garbage time minutes.

ifn bobby get paid nex year

QB year total
36 TD
3 rushing TD
4 interceptions

What team scores the most in each game is a pretty good indicator

Think it has to be turnover margin. Have a lot of faith in our offensive improvement this season…so if you told me we'd dominate in turnover margin I'd be more willing to believe we win 10 games this year.
Also turnover margin seems to have snake bit us during the Fisher era. It'd be nice to see what we could do with more opportunities than our opponents.

Scoring defense.

Because I think we'll score enough to win on offense.

The number of consensus All-Americans on both sides of the ball.

Season hadn't even started yet and I'm already taking heat.

Defense giving up less than 17 pts per game! The offense and special teams can play a significant role in achieving that goal. GIG'EM! WHOOP!

Agree with those that say turnover margin for any one game. I'd also say rushing for over 250 yards is a pretty good predictor as well especially for a team that has a balanced offense. I'm talking about a single
Game stat.

For the season, I'd have to also look to
Avg Turnover margin as a reasonable predictor but
trying to predict record on one "lock"
Stat is folly . If a team does something outstanding like
Allows under 12 ppg on average that would be a pretty good predictor that they would be a 10+ win team I'd think.

Agdad14 is spot on suggesting that low pts allowed is
Not just a sign of great defense as it's a complimentary game . Offense and ST def play a role in achieving great defensive stats.

Jimbo is undefeated at Texas a&m when scoring 31+ points.

That's a very interesting stat.

T.O.P., third down conversion, points, turnover differential and yards are all good ones.

I'll go explosive plays (total plays of 20+ yards on the ground and 25+ yards in the air). We have not been good in that category.

koverton said:

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Jimbo is undefeated at Texas a&m when scoring 31+ points.

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That is a silver bullet. Let's do everything in our power to score 31+ per game.

Does his padlock stat come with a ****ty $29.50 t-short?

Jerry-Ag said:

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4 said:

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Profit margin on chicken wraps

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You don't know the first (1st) thing about profit margin. I'll give you a hint though, my small business is flooding with it. HTH

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I, too, own a small business, though admittedly it has nothing to do with poultry.

I'd like a positive point differential in every game

I'm here from the future to deliver the stats you requested (the ones that I could find easily). Based on all of these padlock stats, it looks like a pretty good year, except for offensive rushing.

3rd down conversion percentage
43.56% (27th overall, 4th in SEC)

3rd down conversion # per game - offense
5.9 (tied-29th overall, tied-2nd in SEC)

3rd down conversion # per game - defense
4.3 (17th overall, 3rd in SEC)

turnover differential per game
-0.1 (tied-74th overall, tied-8th SEC)

TOP
31:34 (25th overall, 4th in SEC)

defensive yards per rush
3.3 (16th overall, 3rd in SEC)

offensive yards per rush
3.9 (tied-88th overall, 10th in SEC)

offensive points per game
32.9 (tied 21st overall, 3rd in SEC) (>32 ppg, less than 9 wins)

defensive points per game
23.1 (39th overall, 5th in SEC)

Evan Stewart total yards
511 (1200 not booked)

QB year total (all QBs)
24 TD, 7 rushing TD, 10 INT

offensive rushing yards per game
132.9 (90th overall, 11th in SEC)

Jimbo Fisher record when scoring 31+ points
31-2

offensive yards per game
403.5 (44th overall, 6th in SEC)