It seems like it is a serious possibility given how much Saban is complaining about NIL. He knows it removes a key advantage that Alabama has always had, hence why he went to DC to complain about NIL recently. It really reminds me of Nebraska and Tom Osborne being against the Big 12's removal of Prop. 48 because they knew that it would remove a key advantage they had. Alabama is on the same trajectory as Nebraska in my opinion.

If you don't think that all the big schools, including us, were already paying players before nil, you've got your head in the sand.

It's all just out in the open now. It's not going to change anything for Bama, he just likes to whine.

I don't think Bama can compete with sip, the Ags, and USC when paying players is out in the open. The endowment and wealthy alumni those schools have dwarfs that of Bama. All of these schools' wealthy alumni are not afraid to get involved now that it is all out in the open. Saban is probably thinking about this.

4 said:

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If you don't think that all the big schools, including us, were already paying players before nil, you've got your head in the sand.

It's all just out in the open now. It's not going to change anything for Bama, he just likes to whine.

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The NIL piece isn't transparent and is being gutter protected by state law from NCAA regulation. A reasonable analog is Olympic athletes who, other than wrestling, are all either explicitly paid professionals or able to represent themselves and have agents for NIL-style deals.

It is jarring because we grew up with celebrating shamateurism in the Olympics and college sports. But that notion was both shambolic and merely a sham for the reason you noted with college football.

To be clear: denying athletes the ability to create income creates deep corruption or poverty…or both.

zb008 said:

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It seems like it is a serious possibility given how much Saban is complaining about NIL. He knows it removes a key advantage that Alabama has always had, hence why he went to DC to complain about NIL recently. It really reminds me of Nebraska and Tom Osborne being against the Big 12's removal of Prop. 48 because they knew that it would remove a key advantage they had. Alabama is on the same trajectory as Nebraska in my opinion.

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Interesting theory, though being in the sec within the middle of all the Deep South talent makes Alabama's situation different than Nebraska's

Without the prop 48 kids, Nebraska was left in the middle of a cold wasteland with very little talent close by

Bama has talent on all sides to pick from

zb008 said:

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I don't think Bama can compete with sip, the Ags, and USC when paying players is out in the open. The endowment and wealthy alumni those schools have dwarfs that of Bama. All of these schools' wealthy alumni are not afraid to get involved now that it is all out in the open. Saban is probably thinking about this.

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I saw something recently that was either an article or interview that made it clear that Bama wasn't able to compete on the NIL front with the top programs that can afford it. But even though they paid less, players still wanted to come to bama and play under Saban so, I would doubt this is going to cost them too much.

amskier1 said:

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zb008 said:

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I don't think Bama can compete with sip, the Ags, and USC when paying players is out in the open. The endowment and wealthy alumni those schools have dwarfs that of Bama. All of these schools' wealthy alumni are not afraid to get involved now that it is all out in the open. Saban is probably thinking about this.

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I saw something recently that was either an article or interview that made it clear that Bama wasn't able to compete on the NIL front with the top programs that can afford it. But even though they paid less, players still wanted to come to bama and play under Saban so, I would doubt this is going to cost them too much.

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Saban has two, maybe three years left in him. Saban retiring will have the same effect on Alabama as Osborne retiring had on Nebraska. In an NIL world, being in a small media market like Alabama minus a legendary coach like Saban will pose serious issues for them that will threaten their elite status. They are already struggling to dominate in games like they used to because they can't have five stars sitting on the bench anymore in an NIL world. Most of their games are close now due to their depth being depleted.

WOW, no offense but your post makes almost no sense. I mean last year, he lost to what most considered a pretty damn good Lsu team and Brian Kelly had nothing to lose by going for a 2 pt conversion so basically he lost due to those circumstances in a nutshell. If Kelly was established there, had more riding on the line and wasn't a first year coach that knew he could do what he did and even if he failed, it wouldn't be held against him by the admin or the fans, Kelly would have usually gone for the tie and we would have seen OT and then who knows what happens? I know that Saban knows all this but he still isn't happy about losing 2 games and most realize he might have his best defense in a long time if not one of the best he has ever had. I know the media is making more of the QB situation than it really is and I expect them being so loaded out and filthy as usual at all the skill positions as well as their OL, they could win a QB that is just a game manager just as Saban has done in the past. I honestly think one of the QBs if not 2 are going to end up really standing out above the rest and they are going to be just fine. Up to this point, it's just a way for the media to get clicks and build up the interest/hype.

When Saban is gone, I am pretty sure Bama will go hard after the top coaches in the industry right now. Many have said already over previous years that if or when Saban ever retires, Dabo is the next HC at bama. That might be and may not but either way, they are going to get a top notch coach and the program name and blue blood history will continue to help that coach recruit and be successful. I don't think Saban is gone for many years still. He loves it way too much. No matter how much he *****es, he loves it and don't see him going anywhere.

Lastly, their depth, go look at it. It's still just as scary as always. Nothing has changed on that front.

amskier1 said:

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WOW, no offense but your post makes almost no sense. I mean last year, he lost to what most considered a pretty damn good Lsu team and Brian Kelly had nothing to lose by going for a 2 pt conversion so basically he lost due to those circumstances in a nutshell. If Kelly was established there, had more riding on the line and wasn't a first year coach that knew he could do what he did and even if he failed, it wouldn't be held against him by the admin or the fans, Kelly would have usually gone for the tie and we would have seen OT and then who knows what happens? I know that Saban knows all this but he still isn't happy about losing 2 games and most realize he might have his best defense in a long time if not one of the best he has ever had. I know the media is making more of the QB situation than it really is and I expect them being so loaded out and filthy as usual at all the skill positions as well as their OL, they could win a QB that is just a game manager just as Saban has done in the past. I honestly think one of the QBs if not 2 are going to end up really standing out above the rest and they are going to be just fine. Up to this point, it's just a way for the media to get clicks and build up the interest/hype.

When Saban is gone, I am pretty sure Bama will go hard after the top coaches in the industry right now. Many have said already over previous years that if or when Saban ever retires, Dabo is the next HC at bama. That might be and may not but either way, they are going to get a top notch coach and the program name and blue blood history will continue to help that coach recruit and be successful. I don't think Saban is gone for many years still. He loves it way too much. No matter how much he *****es, he loves it and don't see him going anywhere.

Lastly, their depth, go look at it. It's still just as scary as always. Nothing has changed on that front.

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What I'm trying to say is that the talent gap between them and other teams is starting to shrink due to NIL. Yes, their two losses to LSU and Tennessee could be considered unlucky, but on the same token, they were lucky to beat tu, A&M, and Ole Miss. All of their recent games against teams with a pulse have been close, and I think that is partly due to NIL and the transfer portal making it difficult for them to hoard all the blue-chips like they used to.

It's a slippery slope, even for Saban

High school kids have short memories

Right now I'd say it's 60-40 they win another championship in the next 3-4 years

amskier1 said:

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WOW, no offense but your post makes almost no sense. I mean last year, he lost to what most considered a pretty damn good Lsu team and Brian Kelly had nothing to lose by going for a 2 pt conversion so basically he lost due to those circumstances in a nutshell. If Kelly was established there, had more riding on the line and wasn't a first year coach that knew he could do what he did and even if he failed, it wouldn't be held against him by the admin or the fans, Kelly would have usually gone for the tie and we would have seen OT and then who knows what happens? I know that Saban knows all this but he still isn't happy about losing 2 games and most realize he might have his best defense in a long time if not one of the best he has ever had. I know the media is making more of the QB situation than it really is and I expect them being so loaded out and filthy as usual at all the skill positions as well as their OL, they could win a QB that is just a game manager just as Saban has done in the past. I honestly think one of the QBs if not 2 are going to end up really standing out above the rest and they are going to be just fine. Up to this point, it's just a way for the media to get clicks and build up the interest/hype.

When Saban is gone, I am pretty sure Bama will go hard after the top coaches in the industry right now. Many have said already over previous years that if or when Saban ever retires, Dabo is the next HC at bama. That might be and may not but either way, they are going to get a top notch coach and the program name and blue blood history will continue to help that coach recruit and be successful. I don't think Saban is gone for many years still. He loves it way too much. No matter how much he *****es, he loves it and don't see him going anywhere.

Lastly, their depth, go look at it. It's still just as scary as always. Nothing has changed on that front.

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Bama will go after one of the top coaches in the country. OK. Sounds like a good plan. What is the success rate of replacing a legendary coach. Let's see.. Oh yea it's absolutely horrible.

zb008 said:

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I don't think Bama can compete with sip, the Ags, and USC when paying players is out in the open. The endowment and wealthy alumni those schools have dwarfs that of Bama. All of these schools' wealthy alumni are not afraid to get involved now that it is all out in the open. Saban is probably thinking about this.

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What does the endowment have to do with the football team? If we are using the University's endowment for NIL, or anything related to football for that matter, that is pathetic.

I am sure Alabama will be fine. They probably can't generate as much shady pay-off NIL as A&M and Texas, but they probably generate more legitimate NIL (actually promoting real products where the value of that promotion is aligned with what is being paid) than A&M and Texas.

Anyone expecting Alabama to end up like Nebraska is naive. They will eventually go down (they were not good for a long time before they hired Saban), but over time the will be one of the most successful programs.

amskier1 said:

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WOW, no offense but your post makes almost no sense. I mean last year, he lost to what most considered a pretty damn good Lsu team and Brian Kelly had nothing to lose by going for a 2 pt conversion so basically he lost due to those circumstances in a nutshell. If Kelly was established there, had more riding on the line and wasn't a first year coach that knew he could do what he did and even if he failed, it wouldn't be held against him by the admin or the fans, Kelly would have usually gone for the tie and we would have seen OT and then who knows what happens? I know that Saban knows all this but he still isn't happy about losing 2 games and most realize he might have his best defense in a long time if not one of the best he has ever had. I know the media is making more of the QB situation than it really is and I expect them being so loaded out and filthy as usual at all the skill positions as well as their OL, they could win a QB that is just a game manager just as Saban has done in the past. I honestly think one of the QBs if not 2 are going to end up really standing out above the rest and they are going to be just fine. Up to this point, it's just a way for the media to get clicks and build up the interest/hype.

When Saban is gone, I am pretty sure Bama will go hard after the top coaches in the industry right now. Many have said already over previous years that if or when Saban ever retires, Dabo is the next HC at bama. That might be and may not but either way, they are going to get a top notch coach and the program name and blue blood history will continue to help that coach recruit and be successful. I don't think Saban is gone for many years still. He loves it way too much. No matter how much he *****es, he loves it and don't see him going anywhere.

Lastly, their depth, go look at it. It's still just as scary as always. Nothing has changed on that front.

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Other than a 9-win season in 1998 when Nebraska lost to several 11- and 12- win teams, they didn't fall under double digit win totals for SEVEN YEARS after joining the Big 12 and having to follow B12 guidelines in admitting qualified students. In fact, they played for the national championship in 2001, their SIXTH season in the B12.

No one, including the OP, said things would change for Bama IMMEDIATELY. They didn't for Nebraska.

Yeah, all that is really visible right now is some small dings in the armor. Last year, they went 11-2 and played in a NY6 bowl, which may not seem bad, but considering that many were picking them to win the natty and they had what many considered to be both the best offensive and defensive player, it is mediocre. Long term, I think Alabama's situation has the potential to turn into Nebraska's, especially post-Saban. This year, they bring back a less-talented and less-experienced team and are potentially looking at 3 losses for the first time in forever. It will probably be evident to more people in the next couple of years that NIL is having a negative impact on Alabama.

The #1 reason Nebraska was a great program was Tom Osborne. The #1 reason they feel apart was his retirement. It's the same for Alabama. Unless they can find another Saban, they will take many steps backwards once he retires, but I wouldn't expect them to fall apart while he's there.

Not really bama is still recruiting #1 with NIL going on.

What will be the downfall of bama is sabans aging. Well, in terms of their dominance, it was losing Smart to Georgia. But in terms of being a top 3 program, that won't stop until Saban just can't keep up.

And even then they'll still likely be a good/great program if they make a decent hire after him.

Look what it has done to UK basketball. They now routinely lose recruits to midmajor programs. The brand means less when another school is willing to pay you more.

Quote:

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Lastly, their depth, go look at it. It's still just as scary as always. Nothing has changed on that front.

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But I think this is where the biggest change comes. If the starters are making bigger bucks than the 2nd & 3rd string, will they be patient when they can get started NIL money at some other school. They've had some great success keeping kids 2-3 years before they start. Will that continue with NIL?

aggiebrad94 said:

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Quote:

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Lastly, their depth, go look at it. It's still just as scary as always. Nothing has changed on that front.

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But I think this is where the biggest change comes. If the starters are making bigger bucks than the 2nd & 3rd string, will they be patient when they can get started NIL money at some other school. They've had some great success keeping kids 2-3 years before they start. Will that continue with NIL?

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Their nfl record says yes. Sure they'll lose a few, but they also have kids that don't pan out, they can just miss more than most any other school, as long as it's those kids, it doesn't really matter.

There have been a few who have transferred from bama and been a huge successs elsewhere, but the number isn't high enough for them to care.

This hurts the mizzous of the world way more when they lose their leading receiver to uga or a fish all sec to lsu.

AnotherOldAgDad said:

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It's a slippery slope, even for Saban

High school kids have short memories

Right now I'd say it's 60-40 they win another championship in the next 3-4 years

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Lololol and who has better odds than that? Uga? Or are the 1-20 ut or 1-100 A&M odds better? If that mattered no one would come to A&M since it's been since 1939.

4 said:

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If you don't think that all the big schools, including us, were already paying players before nil, you've got your head in the sand.

It's all just out in the open now. It's not going to change anything for Bama, he just likes to whine.

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this is exaggerated.

yes, the star players and star recruits were getting something -- maybe the top 15 to 20 players on the roster.

but now it's almost every player...and the money is not performance-based. It's guaranteed.

huge differences

zb008 said:

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I don't think Bama can compete with sip, the Ags, and USC when paying players is out in the open. The endowment and wealthy alumni those schools have dwarfs that of Bama. All of these schools' wealthy alumni are not afraid to get involved now that it is all out in the open. Saban is probably thinking about this.

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Bama just had the #1 recruiting class for 2023 and were #2 in 2022. They will be just fine and will always recruit well while Saban is there, and most likely after Saban.

A couple of facts:

1) Alabama has pulled in 3 of the 6 all time greatest recruiting classes in the last three years.
2) Alabama has finished outside the AP top 2 only 6 times during his 16 years at Alabama, and hasn't finished outside of the top 10 since his first year in 2007.
3) Alabama puts a ton of kids into the draft, and they usually go very high (to lazy to look up stats for this).

As long as recruiting, on-field results, and NFL draft results are where they are at, Saban is never going to be significantly hurt by any disparity in NIL. The issue will be for whoever his replacement is. I'm sure they will start out at the same level for a few years, but if they are not able to maintain the crazy standard that Alabama has been, they could absolutely go to a upper-mid tier SEC team eventually.

Until Saban is gone.

There is a chance that Alabama does fall off, but LSU won titles after Saban left with two different coaches and even though Ryan Day hasn't won a national championship, yet he has kept the Ohio State program relevant after Urban Meyer. Sonny Dykes replaced a legend and had his team in the National title game. It is hard to do in keeping the level up to certain standards looking at you Texas, USC, Florida State but not impossible.

Saban complains to get his boosters to step up $. If he is doing this, it is an issue. This is all under the assumption that Alabama cannot get some new rules enforced to give them back their advantage (state laws - not likely with NIL out of the bag).

When Saban retires, Alabama will pay top dollar for the best coach they can get. The coach will make millions and most likely underperform. Thier next coach will less impressive, and they will decline due to NIL.

They see the big money schools being issues. The year Saban retires, these schools will NIL Alabama into mediocracy as much as they can that year. Look for Alabama to hire Sabans replacement early and announce his retirement late to avoid the 1st year NIL poaching

Even with all the NIL money in the world, we will continue to trip over ourselves in every sport. It always has been, it always will be.

There isn't anyone scared of our money.

The Chicken Ranch said:

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Even with all the NIL money in the world, we will continue to trip over ourselves in every sport. It always has been, it always will be.

There isn't anyone scared of our money.

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It's clear that Saban is.

Ryan Day is also 1-2 against Michigan where Meyer went undefeated against them. Sonny Dykes inherited a team full of veterans in a down BDF and got annihilated against the first elite team he played. It was literally the worst national championship loss ever. They only beat Michigan because they were an overrated Big Ten team and also puked all over themselves with turnovers.

WSJ had piece today on the IRS limiting charitable status for student athlete NIL donations. Pictures our team.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/irs-tax-edge-college-sports-booster-groups-427d403f

(Yes it's likely paywalled. No I don't care. Buy a sub.)

zb008 said:

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Ryan Day is also 1-2 against Michigan where Meyer went undefeated against them. Sonny Dykes inherited a team full of veterans in a down BDF and got annihilated against the first elite team he played. It was literally the worst national championship loss ever. They only beat Michigan because they were an overrated Big Ten team and also puked all over themselves with turnovers.

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Regardless of his record against Michigan he still had his team in the playoff. He also was a Marvin Harrison Jr injury away from beating Georgia and winning a National Title. I would say that is keeping the momentum that Meyer created. I don't care how Dykes did it or what conference he was in. He took freaking TCU to a national title game. We would go crazy regardless if that happened to our program.

greg.w.h said:

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WSJ had piece today on the IRS limiting charitable status for student athlete NIL donations. Pictures our team.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/irs-tax-edge-college-sports-booster-groups-427d403f

(Yes it's likely paywalled. No I don't care. Buy a sub.)

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Damn right it is! Texas A&M is a non-blueblood with DEEP DEEP pockets that makes folks uneasy.

a.froman said:

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zb008 said:

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Ryan Day is also 1-2 against Michigan where Meyer went undefeated against them. Sonny Dykes inherited a team full of veterans in a down BDF and got annihilated against the first elite team he played. It was literally the worst national championship loss ever. They only beat Michigan because they were an overrated Big Ten team and also puked all over themselves with turnovers.

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Regardless of his record against Michigan he still had his team in the playoff. He also was a Marvin Harrison Jr injury away from beating Georgia and winning a National Title. I would say that is keeping the momentum that Meyer created. I don't care how Dykes did it or what conference he was in. He took freaking TCU to a national title game. We would go crazy regardless if that happened to our program.

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No one wants to be associated with a 65-7 score, especially when the whole country was watching it. That's all that will be remembered from TCU's "magical" season. I watched that game and seeing TCU get destroyed by a historic margin did not make me envious of them. The SEC should have had two teams in last year. While Dykes did an impressive job, that game kind of exposed the fact that their season was a product of an easy schedule.

zb008 said:

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a.froman said:

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zb008 said:

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Ryan Day is also 1-2 against Michigan where Meyer went undefeated against them. Sonny Dykes inherited a team full of veterans in a down BDF and got annihilated against the first elite team he played. It was literally the worst national championship loss ever. They only beat Michigan because they were an overrated Big Ten team and also puked all over themselves with turnovers.

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Regardless of his record against Michigan he still had his team in the playoff. He also was a Marvin Harrison Jr injury away from beating Georgia and winning a National Title. I would say that is keeping the momentum that Meyer created. I don't care how Dykes did it or what conference he was in. He took freaking TCU to a national title game. We would go crazy regardless if that happened to our program.

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No one wants to be associated with a 65-7 score, especially when the whole country was watching it. That's all that will be remembered from TCU's "magical" season. I watched that game and seeing TCU get destroyed by a historic margin did not make me envious of them. The SEC should have had two teams in last year. While Dykes did an impressive job, that game kind of exposed the fact that their season was a product of an easy schedule.

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Fair enough. We will just have a difference in opinions. Also just FYI Day is 2-2 against Michigan and has been in the playoff 3 out of his 4 seasons. His one season that he didn't play in the playoff resulted in a Big 6 bowl game win.

I do agree with Day, but I think his losses against Michigan can be seen as dings on Ohio State's elite status, considering Michigan won convincingly in both games. He did come very close to beating Georgia, though. Following a legendary coach means meeting absurd expectations, and I think whoever Saban's successor is will struggle to meet such expectations while also having to deal with all the new challenges that exist with maintaining a roster.