From the cfb reddit and AeroAg

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To start this is not a post to bash on Kellen Mond. It is just a statistical analysis of Kellen Mond and his ability to throw the ball deep down the field.
For the post I am defining a deep ball as a pass that travels in the air more than 25 yards. I have seen comments lately that Mond has completed less than 10 passes of 20 yards or more in the air down field in his entire career. This is a very low number for how many games Mond has played, so I used https://collegefootballdata.com/ to gather the data and numerous Youtube channels to watch the plays. Kellen Mond has had 51 passes over 25 yards completed in his 38 game career. 17 of the passes traveled in the air more than 25 yards. Here is a table breaking them down.

Year Game Yards Yards in Air WR Play
2017 Nicholls 27 27 Christian Kirk Post
2017 Louisiana 76 42 Damien Ratley Go
2017 Arkansas 81 23 Christian Kirk Post
2017 Arkansas 50 41 Damien Ratley Go
2017 Alabama 39 35 Camron Buckley Broken Play
2017 Florida 40 30 Christian Kirk Go
2018 NW State 34 28 Camron Buckley Go
2018 Clemson 69 28 Camron Buckley ?
2018 Clemson 26 26 Jhamon Ausbon Post
2018 Clemson 30 30 Kendrick Rodgers Post
2018South Carolina30 30 Quartney Davis Go
2018South Carolina53 22 Jace Sternberger Go
2019Texas State 40 40 Jhamon Ausbon Go
2019 Lamar 26 26 Jhamon Ausbon Broken Play
2019 Auburn 41 41 Jhamon Ausbon Post
2019 Alabama 31 31 Jhamon Ausbon Broken Play
2019 UTSA 35 28 Jhamon Ausbon Go

Interesting stats:

• 6 of the passes are from the 2017 season under Kevin Sumlin. 6 were in 2018, and 5 were in 2019.
• The only deep balls completed in the entire 2019 season were to Jhamon Ausbon, who for 2020 opted out for the NFL draft
• Kendrick Rodgers and Quartney Davis each had 1 deep pass completed in their entire careers.
• Kellen Mond has completed a deep pass in 7/24 of the SEC conference games he has played in.
• On all 5 the deep passes thrown in 2019, 6 yard were gained after the pass on 1 throw, 0 on all the others

I have not run these numbers on any other quarterbacks, but for example Mac Jones vs Texas A&M this year had around 6 deep passes over 25 yards in one game alone. This limited deep ball ability is keeping Texas A&Ms offense in a 20 yard bubble. Defenses can keep there safeties in the box to help in the run and short passing game, and they do not have to worry about getting beat with a deep pass down the field.

Big plays is one of the few ways teams can upset a better team, and with such few deep passes connecting, it is no wonder A&M is 0-7 versus AP top 5 teams since Jimbo became the head coach. Hopefully with the next quarterback at Texas A&M, probably Haynes King, the deep passing threat will emerge and help Texas A&M become more explosive and dangerous on offense.

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Sums up what many of us are thinking, it seems that he's tried less and less deep shots as time progresses. So that while he hasn't wasted plays attempting it deep, defenses can safely stay 20 yards within the LoS now.

Also don't mind the comments, you lot are filthy animals.

Hmm 13 games a season times 3 seasons plus 2 games this season divided by 17 long passes equals... OH MY GOD!!!

Doesn't part of this have to do with the speed of the receivers?

And when the cornerback has his back turned...

This is a quality post.

Kellen mond was not ever good at throwing the long ball but he has lost all confidence in even trying. You have to at least attempt to throw the deep ball so they will respect the possibility.

I'd be interested to see what other qb's numbers looked like under Sumlin.

Josh Reynolds caught quite a bit of deep balls.

But then again, everyone still thought our offense sucked.

Not sure if it's the route tree, overall passing game coordination or just visual acuity, but Kellen does not even appear to "see" the deep routes as they begin to develop downfield (and the plays are there as the post-game video always shows).

The deep ball (above all other throws) must be executed well before the WR creates separation. If the QB waits until separation occurs: a) the pocket is no longer stable and/or b) the secondary has begun to recover and apply make-up speed.

The only passes Mond makes consistently are where the receiver isn't moving from side to side much - i.e. dig routes. Everything else is a laser. Dude has no touch.

A&M offense remains one dimensional, we have no hope of beating talented team who can chuck a long pass and run like bama...will just complain about poor defensive plays all day long (which is not fair to D)

but you know that good offense beget good defense. We go 3 and out and keep D on the field, what do you expect from dynamic opponent...

this shat ain't no rocket science and 7.5$ million coach knows it but why he ain't practicing is beyond me...

hunter2012 said:

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From the cfb reddit and AeroAg

Quote:

---

To start this is not a post to bash on Kellen Mond. It is just a statistical analysis of Kellen Mond and his ability to throw the ball deep down the field.
For the post I am defining a deep ball as a pass that travels in the air more than 25 yards. I have seen comments lately that Mond has completed less than 10 passes of 20 yards or more in the air down field in his entire career. This is a very low number for how many games Mond has played, so I used https://collegefootballdata.com/ to gather the data and numerous Youtube channels to watch the plays. Kellen Mond has had 51 passes over 25 yards completed in his 38 game career. 17 of the passes traveled in the air more than 25 yards. Here is a table breaking them down.

Year Game Yards Yards in Air WR Play
2017 Nicholls 27 27 Christian Kirk Post
2017 Louisiana 76 42 Damien Ratley Go
2017 Arkansas 81 23 Christian Kirk Post
2017 Arkansas 50 41 Damien Ratley Go
2017 Alabama 39 35 Camron Buckley Broken Play
2017 Florida 40 30 Christian Kirk Go
2018 NW State 34 28 Camron Buckley Go
2018 Clemson 69 28 Camron Buckley ?
2018 Clemson 26 26 Jhamon Ausbon Post
2018 Clemson 30 30 Kendrick Rodgers Post
2018South Carolina30 30 Quartney Davis Go
2018South Carolina53 22 Jace Sternberger Go
2019Texas State 40 40 Jhamon Ausbon Go
2019 Lamar 26 26 Jhamon Ausbon Broken Play
2019 Auburn 41 41 Jhamon Ausbon Post
2019 Alabama 31 31 Jhamon Ausbon Broken Play
2019 UTSA 35 28 Jhamon Ausbon Go

Interesting stats:

• 6 of the passes are from the 2017 season under Kevin Sumlin. 6 were in 2018, and 5 were in 2019.
• The only deep balls completed in the entire 2019 season were to Jhamon Ausbon, who for 2020 opted out for the NFL draft
• Kendrick Rodgers and Quartney Davis each had 1 deep pass completed in their entire careers.
• Kellen Mond has completed a deep pass in 7/24 of the SEC conference games he has played in.
• On all 5 the deep passes thrown in 2019, 6 yard were gained after the pass on 1 throw, 0 on all the others

I have not run these numbers on any other quarterbacks, but for example Mac Jones vs Texas A&M this year had around 6 deep passes over 25 yards in one game alone. This limited deep ball ability is keeping Texas A&Ms offense in a 20 yard bubble. Defenses can keep there safeties in the box to help in the run and short passing game, and they do not have to worry about getting beat with a deep pass down the field.

Big plays is one of the few ways teams can upset a better team, and with such few deep passes connecting, it is no wonder A&M is 0-7 versus AP top 5 teams since Jimbo became the head coach. Hopefully with the next quarterback at Texas A&M, probably Haynes King, the deep passing threat will emerge and help Texas A&M become more explosive and dangerous on offense.

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Sums up what many of us are thinking, it seems that he's tried less and less deep shots as time progresses. So that while he hasn't wasted plays attempting it deep, defenses can safely stay 20 yards within the LoS now.

Also don't mind the comments, you lot are filthy animals.

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Yes. This has been a huge issue and why a lot of us have been questioning Jimbo's decision making at QB1. Of all people he should be most aware and doing something to address it. Instead he has wasted a good group of players who could have competed at a higher level with sticking with Mond. Time to cut bait and move on but he won't. He doesn't care to win, he care about his ego and perception. That's the difference between a great coach like Saban and Meyer and mediocre coaches like Sumlin and Fisher.

I get weary of people hating on Mond (especially for off the field stuff or perceived leadership deficiencies), but this is about as damning of an analysis as you can bring to the table. Thanks for sharing some objective data; this is indeed a major problem and is severely stunting our offense.

That is... Really bad. It explains the ineptitude of the offense. It's easy to play defense when the field is always 20 yards long.

ABATTBQ11 said:

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That is... Really bad. It explains the ineptitude of the offense. It's easy to play defense when the field is always 20 yards long.

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Pretty much allows the other team to play redzone defense every play.

Guys guys, calm down. Remember, this is because according to Jimbo he's making good decisions and checking down to the open routes. We call them but Mond is such a good decision maker there's always been a better more open option on the play....

It would take a lot more research, but I'd be interested in seeing stats on how may deep routes our WRs are running.

Mond's accuracy aside, our WRs just flat out don't appear to get as much separation as, well, most opposing WRs.

Romello said:

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Yes. This has been a huge issue and why a lot of us have been questioning Jimbo's decision making at QB1. Of all people he should be most aware and doing something to address it. Instead he has wasted a good group of players who could have competed at a higher level with sticking with Mond. Time to cut bait and move on but he won't. He doesn't care to win, he care about his ego and perception. That's the difference between a great coach like Saban and Meyer and mediocre coaches like Sumlin and Fisher.

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I am in the group that thinks he should have a pretty short leash if it looks like the team is out of contention...this week could go a long way to determining that.

But I'm also not sure what else Jimbo could have done. Isn't Calzada basically his first QB recruit and he's a RS Fish. It's pretty clear Foster couldn't beat Mond out....

The lack of deep passes falls squarely on Fisher. The passing offense has been reduced to quick slants and outs because Fisher knows those are the passes his qb are capable of. 300 yards passing at 5,6 or 7 yards at a time is deceptive. You lose by 3 or 4 touchdowns and that is reality.

I rewatched the UGA game a few months ago. They played a lot of cover 3, but the CBs played incredibly shallow. No fear of getting it thrown over their heads.

A poster named hatemenow claims to know and has hinted that the WRs from '19 did not trust Mond and/or Jimbo. Would make sense. Mond cannot threaten the whole field, and is inaccurate when he does throw. They end up getting hurt b/c they never get thrown to in stride.

Either Jimbo needs to call every play as RPO/ option/ keep or we need a new QB. Jimbo's offense is predicated on having a smart QB who can make all the throws. We lack that.

It seems we have one hallmark produced by Texas HS football (weak defense) without the other main hallmark (vertical passing threat).

That's a recipe to get your ass kicked in most leagues.

Does it say anywhere how many he attempted?

Is there a stat for:

"Overthrew the wide open receiver by 5 to 10 yards on a long pass?"

one small note...

the game-tying TD pass to Quartney vs. LSU...was a 19-yard touchdown pass.

that Q caught 5 yards deep in the endzone

That is pathetic.

No, it's infuriating.

Meanwhile, Mond pisses on the alumni's leg.

W said:

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one small note...

the game-tying TD pass to Quartney vs. LSU...was a 19-yard touchdown pass.

that Q caught 5 yards deep in the endzone

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After jumping 10'

it was in his catch radius, so, um, good throw

In 2019, he had one big pass play against Bama and and one against Auburn. I'm guessing those were garbage time stat boosters. Aside from those, the other few were against scrub teams.

So you're saying Mond limits the playback and allows defenses to crowd the box and blitz safeties which reduces the effectiveness of both our run game and passing attack.

Pretty much what I said all last year.

Glad to see the stats back it up.

Tobias Funke said:

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I get weary of people hating on Mond (especially for off the field stuff or perceived leadership deficiencies), but this is about as damning of an analysis as you can bring to the table. Thanks for sharing some objective data; this is indeed a major problem and is severely stunting our offense.

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And some more objective data for you since his political stance against Sully our donation dollars are way down. So there you go it does actually hurt the bottom line.

Mond's inability to threaten deep is not even the biggest problem. Mond's mental game is worse.

W said:

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one small note...

the game-tying TD pass to Quartney vs. LSU...was a 19-yard touchdown pass.

that Q caught 5 yards deep in the endzone

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Well, that changes everything!

So it's a fact now, Mond can't throw the deep ball.
Hard to play football with 22 guys in a 10 yd box.
Really hard for receivers to get open like that also.

One thing on the "do we have receivers open downfield" question.

My opinion based on watching specifically for that is that we do.

First, Mond has attempted more deep routes when the receiver is open, but he usually misses pretty badly.

Second, on successful deep routes the ball has to be coming off the QB's hand while the receiver breaks, and directed where the receiver keeps running straight out of the break. The receiver gains a lot of the space while the ball is in the air. If the ball isn't in the air the route is over, so he usually slows down or breaks off the route / works back to the ball.

When you're trying to see if we have open receivers downfield when the ball wasn't thrown, you're not looking for 5 yards of grass between the receiver and DB, you're looking for one step and the DB still needing to turn his hips. The read happens during or even before the break, not after.

I think that might be why some people think no one is open downfield and other people think we have quite a few great opportunities every game.

Thanks to the person that gathered this information.

I've been saying that Mond sucks for a while but this person made a much stronger case. I wish they put the time in to compare him to some top SEC QBs of today and the recent past.

I would like to see his deep passes per game compared to the current Bama QB, Tua, Burrows, etc. I know they will have better deep ball stats but I'm just wondering if it is more like 40% more per game or 300% more.