Yea! We win computer simulations! Whoop! Beat the hell outta 1s and 0s!

I knew we were the best two loss team in the country!

Laugh all you want, the Sagarin computers are scary accurate, usually within roughly 5 spots of where a team should be ranked. I followed them for a few years and using its Predictor lines, it was able to accurately predict A&M's final record within 1 or 2 games. And that was with some epicly bad coaching.

Sagarin's Predictor for the Aggies at this moment is 11. Auburn's is 10, so that game could be one hell of a good one. LSU is 15, and MSU 14. Those are going to be some really good games.

Remaining schedule (advantage in bold):

ARK #97
UK #32
USCe #27
MSU #14
AUB #10
Ole Miss #46
UAB 112
LSU #15

Take that for what you will, but Sagarin says we should finish 9-3 and should annihilate Arkansas, Ole Miss, and UAB. If you give the tossup games (anything within 5 spots of A&M's ranking) to the opponent, that makes it 7-5. Considering how close Auburn and A&M are in those simulations, too, and the fact the road team always wins, 10-2 is not only doable, it's not even a particularly bold statement; Sagarin basically thinks A&M is a 9 or 10 win team.

Favored against miss st?

Leander - Ag said:

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Favored against miss st?

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According to Sagarin in Week 4, yes, slightly. Vegas will probably disagree. Starkvegas will probably disagree, too.

Should be a real good game, though.

Where's tu? That's how we'll know if it really works or not.

Pretty sure Sagarin says it takes 6 games for his model to be accurate.

gigemtrev said:

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Where's tu? That's how we'll know if it really works or not.

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This will be THE GREATEST of all determining factors....

Meximan said:

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Leander - Ag said:

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Favored against miss st?

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According to Sagarin in Week 4, yes, slightly. Vegas will probably disagree. Starkvegas will probably disagree, too.

Should be a real good game, though.

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Accounting for home field, sagarin would have MSU favored

Donghorn said:

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gigemtrev said:

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Where's tu? That's how we'll know if it really works or not.

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This will be THE GREATEST of all determining factors....

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t.u. is at #17. Arizona is at #61
https://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/

Taking into account home/away, the predicted point spreads at the moment will be:

23-point favorite over Ark
8 or 9 over Kentucky
2 or 3 over South Carolina
2-point underdog against Miss State
5 or 6 point underdog against Auburn
13-point favorite over Ole Miss
29 over UAB
2 or 3 over LSU

To me, that's 5 games that we should win + win one of MSU/LSU (just purely based on the point spread, not the team). Losses to Clemson, Alabama, Auburn, and either MSU/LSU. 8-4.

Staff, pin this thread. I want to see how it plays out

Meximan said:

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Laugh all you want, the Sagarin computers are scary accurate, usually within roughly 5 spots of where a team should be ranked. I followed them for a few years and using its Predictor lines, it was able to accurately predict A&M's final record within 1 or 2 games. And that was with some epicly bad coaching.

Sagarin's Predictor for the Aggies at this moment is 11. Auburn's is 10, so that game could be one hell of a good one. LSU is 15, and MSU 14. Those are going to be some really good games.

Remaining schedule (advantage in bold):

ARK #97
UK #32
USCe #27
MSU #14
AUB #10
Ole Miss #46
UAB 112
LSU #15

Take that for what you will, but Sagarin says we should finish 9-3 and should annihilate Arkansas, Ole Miss, and UAB. If you give the tossup games (anything within 5 spots of A&M's ranking) to the opponent, that makes it 7-5. Considering how close Auburn and A&M are in those simulations, too, and the fact the road team always wins, 10-2 is not only doable, it's not even a particularly bold statement; Sagarin basically thinks A&M is a 9 or 10 win team.

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Thanks for the info. Your first parapraph is interesting and adds to its cred, since you actually did follow it in the past and gauged it's accuracy.

I will bet on miss st, aub and ken with those lines

I don't understand how it has UK at #32 and MSU at #14 after UK just whipped them by 21 points. Has it not been updated after yesterday's games?

Massey has a composite computer ranking of several different predictor/ranking systems.

More models should lead to a better prediction/ranking system, but generally, it needs more than 4 games.

The nice thing about the composite is that depending on your feelings of the coach or team at the time, you'll be able to find a ranking system that "gets it right".

Current composite has A&M at #28 (High of 11, low of 68).


Among type 50 teams, A&M has a really high standard deviation, with only TCU and Va Tech having a greater amount (it means they're all over the place with the rankings).


Edited to add remaining teams on schedule.
Arkansas: #107
Kentucky: #24
USC: #22
MSU: #18
AU: #10
Ole Miss: #34
UAB: #97
LSU: #7

(5 above, 3 below-with significant overlap on 3 of those teams)

Sagarin is a sip troll.