Maximus_Meridius said:
I don't think the most likely tactic would be "D-Day." As has been said (repeatedly), there are too many obstacles in the way, even forgoing naval intervention. If you're going to hit the most powerful nation, you've got basically two objectives, in my opinion; 1) be fast as lightning, and 2) keep them on their heels and don't let them figure out what you're doing.
Assuming preemptive strike, time is on your side. You position your pieces then hit. I would start (God, I hope I don't end up on some government list for this) by "importing" strike forces. Multiple teams of 50. Don't do it all at once, and don't come in at the same place. The border with Mexico is where your tools and weapons come from. Smuggle weapons, explosives, etc. While this is going on, utilize container ships to ferry over vehicles (keep them out of port, obviously). You can have larger forces with these as well. It's also not out of the realm of possibility to have a ship disguised as a container ship that can quickly convert and launch helicopters
When you're ready, everything hits, but in sequence. If it all goes at once, you risk making the govt. realize it's a coordinated strike too soon and they begin mass mobilization. Start by attacking the power grid, which is absurdly weak. Utilize cyber-attacks where possible (and yes, I realize you "limited" them, but that's just stupid considering what we've seen the past decade), or one of your pre-inserted strike forces to do more permanent damage. Start with NYC as it will cause massive panic and consume US resources trying to keep people calm. I'd also consider hitting LA. Again, you want chaos. Shortly after, you have the most difficult part: you need an air force base. You've gotta establish a supply chain with home, and you need air support. This requires a large airstrip so you can land your heavy cargo aircraft. Knocking out some US fighters as well would be a bonus. So let's say you go for either Luke AFB in Arizona, or you go for broke and hit Lackland in San Antonio. You launch your strike helicopters, either from your converted container ship or from covert bases in Mexico. You launched multiple cargo craft and fighters, timed to arrive with the strike force for further support. JABQ04's idea of hitting Ft. Hood is also a good idea.
Now is when it gets real. Assuming you've got the ability to sneak and launch helicopters from a ship that isn't suspicious, let's say you've somehow gotten into Chesapeake Bay. You have already snuck several strike teams into DC. Now you launch the helos and aim to destroy the Pentagon and the White House. Assault Congress. Essentially, you are going to see if you can get the US govt. to capitulate while they're still trying to figure out what the heck you're doing. If so, great. If not, well, cause as much hell as you can to further disrupt things.
There's a lot more that you could do, too. If we're pretending the Navy isn't paying attention and you've been able to position your ships (with an aircraft carrier) such that you can reach port in an hour or two, you have further ability to land more forces. Personally, I'd try to land around Houston (especially if you are taking out Lackland for your AFB). This puts the US in a fuel crunch, and it also gives you a fuel supply for yourself.
I could go on, but I've wasted enough time on this as it is. I'll admit I'm not the most well versed in current military abilities and defense systems. I'm sure many of you will be able to shoot my ideas to doll rags, and I'm not even saying that this would even work due to the quality of our armed forces. My main point is that I don't think the most likely way is a Normandy style invasion. You're going to go for speed and confusion. Even then it's an uphill climb. An interesting (and somewhat disturbing) thought experiment.
The container ship idea is a fascinating one, but I am not using helicopters. The targets you mention in DC post 9-11 are probably the most invulnerable to air assault in the world short of places like the Cheyenne Mountain Complex and strategic nuclear sites. The air assets that guard them go on immediate alert once weird stuff starts to happen in anywhere inside CONUS, the distraction theory doesn't work here-- it actually works against you. Instead, I have my disguised container ship(s) converted to fire cruise missiles at these and other military targets within range. Helicopters fly slow and light up radar, they are going to be shot down easily.
I am also not using my strike forces on anything that does not have immediate military value. The chaos value of targeting symbolic targets in NYC or other cities is not worth it. Even with say, five teams of fifty, you are looking at 250 commandos vs. 40,000 pissed off NYPD, including multiple highly trained, effective SWAT and tactical units playing a home game. Ditto for places like LA and Chicago. Instead, I am targeting things like the power grid and the most vulnerable military command and control centers I can find. The idea here is to disrupt things long enough to stage my main invasion force and tie up as many military assets as I can to keep them away from my army/fleet.
In reality, though, I think that the only gambit you can take is a massive asssault across land borders with the aim of complete victory or at least tying down virtually all of the US military. If your commando gambit fails, then suddenly your invasion force is a sitting duck for Us naval and air power. That force is likely the bulk of your military, which then leaves your own homeland, wherever that may be, open to retaliation from the only other nation in the world capable of global power projection. This would come at the end of a long game aimed at eroding the U.S's economy, influence, and diplomatic currency around the world and very shrewd maneuvering into a position where Mexico and Canada let you stage your military there and you paint the U.S. into a corner that prevents us from striking while you are weak. Basically, you are acting like Germany before World War II, arming under our noses and striking deals with dupes like Stalin-- and doing so from beyond and ocean.
If we change the rules up, there is one way I can see the commando gambit succeeding, and that is if they manage to sneak small nuclear weapons into several major population centers and then blackmail the government into capitulation. But then you are playing with deterrence theory and you may just end up vaporizing most of the world.
