2024 YR4 up to nearly a 2.5% probability of impact. Size estimate of 131 to 295 ft (40 to 90 meters) wide. Not a world ender but would wipe a metropolitan area off the map.

While still an extremely low possibility, asteroid 2024 YR4's impact probability with Earth has increased from about 1% to a 2.3% chance on Dec. 22, 2032. As we observe the asteroid more, the impact probability will become better known. More: https://t.co/VWiASTMBDi pic.twitter.com/Z1mpb4UPaC

— NASA Asteroid Watch (@AsteroidWatch) February 7, 2025

Thankfully (for pretty much anyone on this board), it's gonna hit somewhere on a line between Bogota and Mumbai if it winds up meeting Earth.

It will be interesting to see what things look like during the 2028 pass.

Why can't they determine this with certainty? I mean isn't everything regarding speed and trajectory constant in space? Just wondering after doing zero research myself.

SJEAg said:

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Why can't they determine this with certainty? I mean isn't everything regarding speed and trajectory constant in space? Just wondering after doing zero research myself.

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3 body problem

If we had precise initial conditions of the entire solar system, sure we could model things numerically with sufficient accuracy. But in this case we don't. From the couple months of observations we have, we can be pretty certain about the plane of of it's orbit, but there's a lot of (or at least a lot more than for the orbital plane) uncertainty in the precise period of that orbit.

They'll try to find this asteroid in historical data to see if they can reduce uncertainty in that last direction.

Prayers for anyone that gets space dementia trying to protect us

FightinTexasAg15 said:

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Prayers for anyone that gets space dementia trying to protect us

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We definitely do NOT want Bruce Willis up there then!!!

aggietony2010 said:

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Thankfully (for pretty much anyone on this board), it's gonna hit somewhere on a line between Bogota and Mumbai if it winds up meeting Earth.

It will be interesting to see what things look like during the 2028 pass.

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How could this be known with such a small probability of impact?

They know the plane the asteroid is in, but it's the timing that's less certain. It's kinda like putting a gun on a tripod and zeroing it into the bullseye of a target...and then putting that target on a level, elliptical train track, and having the target do laps, and trying to time a shot to hit the target.

If you hit the target, you know it's going to hit on a line intersecting the bullseye, but if the timing is off, you might miss the target altogether.

And I don't know why I have the sunglasses emoji...maybe we'll need them to view the fireball as this thing evaporates Lagos, Nigeria.

Brian Earl Spilner said:

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At what point does NASA ELON start training a bunch of drillers to go into space?

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FIFY

Okay that makes sense, thanks!