(In our hemisphere).

🇧🇷Brazil's presidential, first round is October 4.

Why it matters for energy?

Brazil isn't OPEC, but it joined the OPEC+ Charter of Cooperation in Feb 2025 with zero obligation to cut, and it's now Latin America's largest producer at 4.3mb/d, increasingly pre-salt crude… pic.twitter.com/Kpj2lUF1xi

— Jack Prandelli (@jackprandelli) September 22, 2026

Could be big. The USAID/CIA folks basically installed Lula via their courts/military (color revolution style). He sounds incredibly angry this week. He gave a long interview with an enemy of the state (CNN) complaining about Trump, Venezuela, Marco Rubio, basically all things American.

Brazilian President Lula on Trump:

He acts like an emperor. It is a way of governing that I do not agree with.

It is a way of governing where you say: “I am strong, I am bigger, I am richer, I can do anything, and everyone else has to obey.”

That is called the law of the… pic.twitter.com/EJp8hdDHtZ

— Clash Report (@clashreport) September 22, 2026

Polymarket (I know, I know) has him down 58-42 vs. Bolsonero. Their tyrannical judiciary might be a problem though.

I don't know anything about polls in Brazil, but would love to see that map finish flipping. Urgent need for training military personnel in Brazilian Portuguese in the next 4-6 weeks in Alabama? Cue the 'It's happening' memes.

They will not let bolsonaro win. That creepy ass judge will see to it

Maybe. Keep in mind he's campaigning on freeing his father (from house arrest).

Grok summary;

Quote:

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Jair Messias Bolsonaro (born 21 March 1955) is a Brazilian former army captain and politician who served as the 38th president of Brazil from 1 January 2019 to 1 January 2023. A right-wing nationalist and social conservative, he rose on anti-establishment, anti-corruption, and law-and-order themes after the Petrobras scandal. He lost re-election to Luiz Incio Lula da Silva in 2022, was later barred from office, and in September 2025 was convicted by Brazil's Supreme Federal Court of plotting a coup. He was sentenced to 27 years and 3 months in prison.

As of September 2026 he is serving that sentence under humanitarian house arrest in Braslia after periods in federal police custody and a prison complex, following health problems including pneumonia. He remains politically influential through his family and movement; his eldest son, Senator Flvio Bolsonaro, is a leading conservative candidate in the October 2026 presidential race against Lula.

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It's widely expected that the race has to go to a run-off I guess, neither approaching 50%. It will likely be close/messy (again) I guess. De Moraes is clearly their version of 'judge' Boasberg.

What a beautiful story! 🇧🇷

With his Dad censored, silenced, and imprisoned, Flávio Bolsonaro is now the frontrunner to become the next President of Brazil.

To beat the socialist Lula with his demoniac Chief Judge Alexandre de Moraes…

Jair Bolsonaro – the Father – censored,… https://t.co/EStwjNYYGu pic.twitter.com/VZK3s6LUpA

— Krzysztof Szczawinski 🇵🇱 (@Kristof_Poland) September 21, 2026

Atlas Intel, the gold standard pollster of South America, finds Flavio Bolsonaro defeating incumbent Brazilian President Lula by 0.4 points in the runoff.

They are likely concerned with polling Brazil, which is why we haven't seen many U.S. polls from them this year. https://t.co/8JyOcJS7Am

— Preston Hill (@realPrestonHill) September 21, 2026

Who?mikejones! said:

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They will not let bolsonaro win. That creepy ass judge will see to jt

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This.

That evil judge effectively runs the country. He can make anything he wants happen.