i didn't want to derail the spacex thread but there was a question about supply chains and gas turbines. politics because defense and economics related.
there are multiple major demand pushes converging on the same supply chain right now. you've got general reindustrialization creating significant electricity demand growth for the first time in 20 years, AI datacenters needing massive amounts of electricity, civilian air travel growth, massive expansion of LNG exports, and a significant defense buildup. all of these converge on the gas turbine.
that supply chain itself has struggled in the past 20 years. GE and Siemens essentially went bankrupt around a decade ago which is why both companies broke up. 2008, 2014, and covid were hard on industrial suppliers - a bunch of skilled labor and engineering were laid off and are gone. we skipped a major capex investment cycle, so a lot of our equipment is old. net result: lead times for turbines, and their parts, are through the roof.
if you go one layer down, the issue for the parts comes to cast parts (blades and vanes) and those are limited primarily by equipment. howmet (one of the two largest casting companies) ceo recently said it takes around 2 years from order to production to bring new equipment online. skipping back up to the big picture, the other issue is rare earths and magnets also require vacuum induction melters, so you pinch this supply chain from two directions.
however, even if you magic into existence infinite casting capacity, you don't get infinite gas turbines. you still need other parts in the engines - forgings, in particular, are a constrained market. the large forging capacity we have in the US is cold war era equipment, and lead times for large inconel forged turbine wheels are 4+ years. even if you had that, GE and others are constrained by the skilled labor to assemble them. and even if you had infinite complete gas turbines, you still need generators, power transformers (huge issue in and of itself). then construction capacity to build the power plant proper - concrete, steel, and traditional construction trades.
we're in a tight spot as a country. as i said all of that melt capacity also is used to make magnets and high temp alloys for hypersonics and heat shields, and parts for flight, military, and power gas turbines. every cruise missile has a small gas turbine in it. the shahed drones are now flying with turbines in them, which means interceptors will need them to keep up.
bringing it back to spacex -- standing up a blade and vane foundry dumps them into the same supply chain constraints as everyone else. theyre competing for equipment and labor. doesnt mean they won't win, it just means that we need a *lot* more of it and there's no shortcut. this also comes to bear on the various gas turbine startups you might see - even if they can design a great engine, how are they going to build it? whos going to cast and machine the parts?
the next year is going to be very interesting from a defense perspective. we really need all hands on deck for this. (follow up post to what i wrote here about missiles a while back.)
there are multiple major demand pushes converging on the same supply chain right now. you've got general reindustrialization creating significant electricity demand growth for the first time in 20 years, AI datacenters needing massive amounts of electricity, civilian air travel growth, massive expansion of LNG exports, and a significant defense buildup. all of these converge on the gas turbine.
that supply chain itself has struggled in the past 20 years. GE and Siemens essentially went bankrupt around a decade ago which is why both companies broke up. 2008, 2014, and covid were hard on industrial suppliers - a bunch of skilled labor and engineering were laid off and are gone. we skipped a major capex investment cycle, so a lot of our equipment is old. net result: lead times for turbines, and their parts, are through the roof.
if you go one layer down, the issue for the parts comes to cast parts (blades and vanes) and those are limited primarily by equipment. howmet (one of the two largest casting companies) ceo recently said it takes around 2 years from order to production to bring new equipment online. skipping back up to the big picture, the other issue is rare earths and magnets also require vacuum induction melters, so you pinch this supply chain from two directions.
however, even if you magic into existence infinite casting capacity, you don't get infinite gas turbines. you still need other parts in the engines - forgings, in particular, are a constrained market. the large forging capacity we have in the US is cold war era equipment, and lead times for large inconel forged turbine wheels are 4+ years. even if you had that, GE and others are constrained by the skilled labor to assemble them. and even if you had infinite complete gas turbines, you still need generators, power transformers (huge issue in and of itself). then construction capacity to build the power plant proper - concrete, steel, and traditional construction trades.
we're in a tight spot as a country. as i said all of that melt capacity also is used to make magnets and high temp alloys for hypersonics and heat shields, and parts for flight, military, and power gas turbines. every cruise missile has a small gas turbine in it. the shahed drones are now flying with turbines in them, which means interceptors will need them to keep up.
bringing it back to spacex -- standing up a blade and vane foundry dumps them into the same supply chain constraints as everyone else. theyre competing for equipment and labor. doesnt mean they won't win, it just means that we need a *lot* more of it and there's no shortcut. this also comes to bear on the various gas turbine startups you might see - even if they can design a great engine, how are they going to build it? whos going to cast and machine the parts?
the next year is going to be very interesting from a defense perspective. we really need all hands on deck for this. (follow up post to what i wrote here about missiles a while back.)
