December Retail Sales Is Underwhelming

2,250 Views | 26 Replies | Last: 18 days ago by Predmid
TRM
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At least there was some YoY improvement, but not much growth from November. Main St is just getting crushed right now and can't really spend.

ETA: YoY growth is the lowest since 2018.

javajaws
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Not sure why anyone would have expected anything else. Prices are up, and actual employment is down. Don't bother quoting statistics either - ALL of those published numbers are basically worthless. Check around with friends and social media - jobs are hard to come by. And I'm not just talking the entry level ones either.
Rapier108
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And yet people are still wasting money on stupid stuff like DoorDash 2-3 times a day.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
Logos Stick
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Part of the slowdown could be explained by the massive personal CC debt.
torrid
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Markets are up this morning.

?dunno?
MemphisAg1
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From an article at the week.com below. It's a K-shaped economy. If you're in an AI-related field, or if you're heavily invested in stocks, life is good. For others, not so much. Doesn't bode well for the R's keeping Congress in November.

"The demand for new hires "continues to wane," said CNN. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported last week that there were just 6.54 million job openings in December, the "lowest level since September 2020." That leaves "slim pickings" for U.S. workers looking to find a new job, said NerdWallet's Elizabeth Renter, per the network. And economists are cautious about how tariffs, immigration policy and artificial intelligence will affect the job market going forward. "The hiring recession isn't going to end anytime soon," said Heather Long, the chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, in a commentary.

The pandemic is not the only point of comparison. Layoffs in January were the highest since the 2009 financial crisis plunged the U.S. economy into the "steepest downturn since the Great Depression," said CNBC. American companies announced more than 108,000 layoffs for the month, more than double from a year ago. That signals that employers are "less-than-optimistic about the outlook for 2026," said workplace expert Andy Challenger in an analysis. Workers are feeling negative, too. Consumer confidence is at its "lowest level since 2014," said The Associated Press."
LMCane
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don't let actual facts get in the way of "my friend said this and everyone can see" stories:

The Chicago PMI (MNI Chicago) skyrocketed to 54.0 in January 2026, marking a significant, unexpected expansion in regional manufacturing activity after a long period of contraction.

This surge indicates a robust growth in the sector, surpassing forecasts of 43.5 and moving above the 50.0 growth threshold. The index measures production, orders, employment, and supplier deliveries.

Key Findings on Chicago Manufacturing (as of Jan 2026):
Significant Expansion: The January 2026 reading of 54.0 is a 2-year high, signaling a reversal from 20+ consecutive months of contractionary readings (under 50).

Surpassing Forecasts: The index exceeded expectations (43.5) by a wide margin.
Composition: The index,, also known as the MNI Chicago Business Barometer, is based on surveys of regional purchasing managers.

Indicator Relevance: It is considered a leading indicator for the national ISM Manufacturing Index and broader U.S. GDP, often released just before the national data.
Pizza
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When I look at different market data, and then I observe my general environment with respect to spending & other behaviors of the people in it...none of it makes any sense.

My Wife & I combined make a decent income, are frugal, and maintain a constant watch of our Income & Spending...yet it seems like everyone around us is driving 70k Denali's, and gorging on door dash, and purchasing new homes.

My guess is there is a massive amount of CC debt being added up right now, but I have no clue.
Aggie Spirit
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Perhaps the 0.0% growth from Nov to Dec shows that shoppers, especially those online, get more done early in the season now.
Maroon Elephant
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Prices are up, full time employment with benefits is way down and I still believe the lone positive from the covid disaster is that a lot of people have learned what they don't need. Intelligent people are going more minimal and keeping things longer instead of clicking that Buy Now button so often.
TexAgs Firestorm Survivor
11.25.23
#NeverForget
Morbo the Annihilator
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Aggie Spirit said:

Perhaps the 0.0% growth from Nov to Dec shows that shoppers, especially those online, get more done early in the season now.

This is a interesting point.

Anecdotally, I'm not aware of anyone in my family or close friend group who shopped for anything after October, and my wife and I had our holiday purchases finished in Septmeber.
BQ78
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Have you seen my 401K though, wow?
TRM
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A survey by Prosper Insights & Analytics in October, said 40% start before November and 60% planned to buy gifts in December. However, other surveys in December expected 90% of consumers will buy a gift the weekend before Christmas.

Planned spending on gifts for family hasn't reached pre-pandemic levels either.

ts5641
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Sure seemed crowded everywhere I was in December regardless of the store or restaurant.
doubledog
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Another take on this is that people are not buying crap they do not need.
LMCane
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Aggie Spirit said:

Perhaps the 0.0% growth from Nov to Dec shows that shoppers, especially those online, get more done early in the season now.

and that there was a huge amount of spending in November

which was equalled in December
LMCane
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[This thread is about retail sales, not jobs numbers. There's an existing thread for that -- Staff]
AggieVictor10
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Don't be a panican
javajaws
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It's funny how some of you defend these numbers without a second thought, yet when a democrat is in control "can't trust the numbers".

Hint: All numbers are cooked by the party in charge. We're not meant to know the truth.
Prosperdick
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javajaws said:

It's funny how some of you defend these numbers without a second thought, yet when a democrat is in control "can't trust the numbers".

Hint: All numbers are cooked by the party in charge. We're not meant to know the truth.

My biggest beef with Biden's numbers is he actually tried to take credit for creating millions of jobs that were simply "on hold" during Covid. I also don't like the trend of trumpeting big numbers and quietly downgrading them later.
e=mc2
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javajaws said:

It's funny how some of you defend these numbers without a second thought, yet when a democrat is in control "can't trust the numbers".

Hint: All numbers are cooked by the party in charge. We're not meant to know the truth.

Certainly can't trust your evidence either. I'm in NB and work in the SA and Austin metro areas. Absolutely booming. So, my evidence directly contradicts yours. Is my evidence any less trustworthy? Maybe you live in a ****hole blue city that people are fleeing.
javajaws
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e=mc2 said:

javajaws said:

It's funny how some of you defend these numbers without a second thought, yet when a democrat is in control "can't trust the numbers".

Hint: All numbers are cooked by the party in charge. We're not meant to know the truth.

Certainly can't trust your evidence either. I'm in NB and work in the SA and Austin metro areas. Absolutely booming. So, my evidence directly contradicts yours. Is my evidence any less trustworthy? Maybe you live in a ****hole blue city that people are fleeing.

I provided no "evidence" either way - I just made a general comment about the board behavior around these types of numbers under different admins. So...congrats?
Get Off My Lawn
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I tried to Christmas shop brick & mortar this year. I went though many many stores which should have had things on my list (or close enough to be worth buying). Things that'd be appreciated by family members just wasn't present.
TRM
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What do you think it was? Not enough inventory or everyone buying the items you wanted to get for family?
deddog
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e=mc2 said:

javajaws said:

It's funny how some of you defend these numbers without a second thought, yet when a democrat is in control "can't trust the numbers".

Hint: All numbers are cooked by the party in charge. We're not meant to know the truth.

Certainly can't trust your evidence either. I'm in NB and work in the SA and Austin metro areas. Absolutely booming. So, my evidence directly contradicts yours. Is my evidence any less trustworthy? Maybe you live in a ****hole blue city that people are fleeing.

What field?
I am in Austin , and Tech is hemorrhaging (unless you are closely connected to AI)
reineraggie09
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This. And it isn't 70k Denalis. It's 100k denalis. My wife and I are doing better than we ever could have dreamed and couldn't/wouldnt stomach buying a new Yukon when we needed to upgrade last year. Found a 2 year old one that was, not a Denali, more expensive than my 3/4 ton was brand new in 2019. People are absolutely still spending money but I don't think it's their money.
Predmid
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Credit card delinquency is at is highest point since 2008.
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