This has been circulating on X recently. I cannot find the original source, but (according to Grok) it is in line with other demographic trends.

Chart shows the the changes in number of children under 5 for top metro areas.

ETA-
All of the graphs from the original post were coming across. So I broke the X link below by inserting a space between the 5 and the 8.

8/photo/1

6 biggest % gains:
Austin +98%
Orlando +89%
Raleigh +87%
DFW +81%
Houston +74%

Six top losers:
Portland - 29%
Chicago - 31%
Boston - 33%
NYC - 34%
LA - 36%
SF - 38%

Rather famous series of experiments where JB Calhoun created a rat utopia and instead the rats went psycho, stopped mating and killed themselves off. What he observed:

• Females stopped caring for young, attacked their own offspring, or abandoned them.
• "The Beautiful Ones": a group of males who did nothing but eat, sleep, groom themselves obsessively, and avoided all social/sexual interaction.
• Birth rates collapsed.
• Even when survivors were moved to new, uncrowded enclosures, they never recovered normal social or reproductive behavior.

I think we may be observing a related phenomena in our DemocRat cities.

Hold on conservatives and be fruitful, the tide could be turning - if we can avoid the indoctrination of our children. Special props to you Mormons out there!


https://pages.github.io/jcalhoun/Universe25/1962-Calhoun-PopulationDensityAndSocialPathology.pdf

Always said the one upside of gay "marriage" is they cannot reproduce naturally.

I have been studying the population decline for about a year. This point came up several times - leftist ideology will diminish as they are either genetic dead ends or the families least likely to have kids. They have to indoctrinate conservative family children into their ideology to keep it afloat - like immigrants into countries with low fertility rates.

If, and this is a big if as none of the researchers or subject matter experts predict this, we ever naturally rebound from the population decline tailspin, it will arise from the religious and conservative communities.

Keep making babies conservatives! Raise them to love God, family, and country. Teach them about Jesus. We can take this country back!

This is yet another reason they want unfettered mass migration from 3rd world hellholes.

And why they have invested in utterly dominating the education system. They need to recruit and indoctrinate

Yep, educational indoctrination has been a working strategy, particularly with women. Some gross generalizations: in a high school classroom women are generally the "easy" audience, easier to motivate, and very group/consensus focused. They just tend to be more conformist (in their cliques and to their teachers)

Guys, you are generally better off motivating out of personal benefit. I think a some/ a lot of that is testosterone.

At least that was my experience teaching HS; for college this still somewhat holds, but more complex, nuanced, and individual interactions and motivations.

Neither of those links work, but while I agree with the thesis I wonder how much of the percentages you cite are simply people moving out of the north and to the south so it's just a swap. We know the north has been hemorrhaging people for years to the south.

YouBet said:

---

Neither of those links work, but while I agree with the thesis I wonder how much of the percentages you cite are simply people moving out of the north and to the south so it's just a swap. We know the north has been hemorrhaging people for years to the south.

---

Just like "Californians leaving!" gets the thrills of the right, until they realized they were moving to Texas.

It's not like people are vanishing, they're mostly just moving. And like has happened throughout history, people go where the money is.

No Spin Ag said:

---

YouBet said:

---

Neither of those links work, but while I agree with the thesis I wonder how much of the percentages you cite are simply people moving out of the north and to the south so it's just a swap. We know the north has been hemorrhaging people for years to the south.

---

Just like "Californians leaving!" gets the thrills of the right, until they realized they were moving to Texas.

It's not like people are vanishing, they're mostly just moving. And like has happened throughout history, people go where the money is.

---

Well, the other thing is that most of the people moving here from blue states move right into the blue cities of Texas for the most part, so their votes don't matter even if they vote Republican.

YouBet said:

---

Neither of those links work, but while I agree with the thesis I wonder how much of the percentages you cite are simply people moving out of the north and to the south so it's just a swap. We know the north has been hemorrhaging people for years to the south.

---

Sorry, for a tech guy I can be pretty inept with it.

Copy this:

and either add an 8 to the end or 8/photo/1

There have been more dogs than kids in San Francisco for 30 years.

Hard to predict how demographics will translate into politics in a couple of decades

amercer said:

---

There have been more dogs than kids in San Francisco for 30 years.

Hard to predict how demographics will translate into politics in a couple of decades

---

Very true, but I would much rather Texas be up and NYC/Ca down, than the other way around.

A tiny example but my BIL grew up in a Conservative family. Got radicalized while in school, banked on the Biden promise that all of his student loans would be forgiven, got married to a fellow Lib. They don't want to have children. Meanwhile my wife and I are Conservatives and are planning on a couple of kids.

ts5641 said:

---

This is yet another reason they want unfettered mass migration from 3rd world hellholes.

---

This. 10,000% this.

its not the end of the democrat party, its the end of the democrat party comprised of Americans.

US total fertility rate (average births per woman over her life) is 1.62. The CDC gives these breakdowns:

• Whites 1.53
• Blacks 1.58
• Hispanics 1.95
• Asian 1.31

Immigrants are around a TFR of 2.2

in other words, the American population of people born here from all demographics is shrinking by around 0.85% per year. that means in ten years we'd have ~92% of the people we have now, all things being equal. for whites that means a 1.05% decline per year, and 90% of the people, and so on.

however, immigrants have more kids! - a TFR of 2.2 grows at 0.2% per year, so in ten years there would be 102%.

so all things being equal, the US-born population in ten years will be 10% less, foreign born recent arrivals will be 2% more than they currently are. additional immigration is on top of that (pre President Trump 2 million per year!)

works out to in 2035 a US born population of 300 million, and somewhere between 50-75 million immigrants or first-generation children. in other words 25% of the people who will be living here in 2035 will be born to current immigrants, or arrive between now and then, or born to people who arrive between now and then. and that doesn't really count illegals.

37% of New York City is foreign born (including legal and illegal immigrants and naturalized citizens), just as a data point for no particular reason related to current events. the democrat party will be stronger than ever - but it wont look like it does today.

You're talking about the Universe 25 experiment. Many parallels to today. Crazy.

UK and canada are like looking into the future for us. in 2024 42.3% (!) of newborns in canada were born to a foreign-born mother.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/91f0015m/91f0015m2025004-eng.htm

for reference USA in 2023 was approximately 30%

Yeah, none of this is great and I don't see much recovery in it.

My wife and I are failures on this front and didn't help the cause so apologies to all and good luck to your kids!

Over_ed said:

---

Hold on conservatives and be fruitful, the tide could be turning

---

fc2112 said:

---

Always said the one upside of gay "marriage" is they cannot reproduce naturally.

---

the same thing goes for leftist American Jews who vote for the socialists.

they are dying out and being replaced by Orthodox right wing American Jews who have 4/5/6 children.

while the LGBTQ have zero or 1 child.

Cock roaches always find a way to survive.

TexAgs91 said:

---

Over_ed said:

---

Hold on conservatives and be fruitful, the tide could be turning

---

---

Who would have thought that Judge was a prophet.

boulderaggie said:

---

You're talking about the Universe 25 experiment. Many parallels to today. Crazy.

---

Yep, my lots of "esoteric" courses on my transcripts.

LMCane said:

---

fc2112 said:

---

Always said the one upside of gay "marriage" is they cannot reproduce naturally.

---

the same thing goes for leftist American Jews who vote for the socialists.

they are dying out and being replaced by Orthodox right wing American Jews who have 4/5/6 children.

while the LGBTQ have zero or 1 child.

---

And two gay women having a child = .5 toward the 2.2 they each "need" to average for replacement. The numbers don't work for gays very well. For some reason.

Many of y'all seem to be forgetting that political alignment isn't a hereditary trait, and generations of youth have been known to reject the politics of their parents en masse.

If the Democrat party dies, and they might, it's going to be because their message is stale and weak, and doesn't reach the next generation.

AtomicActuator said:

---

Many of y'all seem to be forgetting that political alignment isn't a hereditary trait, and generations of youth have been known to reject the politics of their parents en masse.

If the Democrat party dies, and they might, it's going to be because their message is stale and weak, and doesn't reach the next generation.

---

No, we are not forgetting, but children are more likely to follow their parents ideology than not. As long as it is important to their parents and they preach to them the merits.

https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/05/10/most-us-parents-pass-along-their-religion-and-politics-to-their-children/

Anecdotally, 4 of my 5 bros and sisters are right leaning. 80%. Seems to correlate.

lol democrats dont vote on message, they vote on handouts

AtomicActuator said:

---

Many of y'all seem to be forgetting that political alignment isn't a hereditary trait, and generations of youth have been known to reject the politics of their parents en masse.

If the Democrat party dies, and they might, it's going to be because their message is stale and weak, and doesn't reach the next generation.

---

Their message is FREE STUFF!

That message never fails, especially when the collective IQ gets lower, which it is. See recent NYC and Seattle elections.

Logos Stick said:

---

AtomicActuator said:

---

Many of y'all seem to be forgetting that political alignment isn't a hereditary trait, and generations of youth have been known to reject the politics of their parents en masse.

If the Democrat party dies, and they might, it's going to be because their message is stale and weak, and doesn't reach the next generation.

---

Their message is FREE STUFF!

That message never fails, especially when the collective IQ gets lower, which it is. See recent NYC and Seattle elections.

---

Let's not forget that both Obama and Hillary were once openly opposed to open borders, but, changed that position. Why? It wasn't because of a sudden case of compassion.

The plan is to import illegals with the lure of FREE STUFF, get them on the government dole at YOUR expense, create future voters that will give them permanent one-party control.