is if SCOTUS deems his tariffs illegal (which they are in my opinion). There is no national emergency requiring the largest increase in tariffs in history on almost every country in the world. He has to go to congress for that.

If SCOTUS rolls back the tariffs, we may actually see the economy rebound. And as the economy goes, so does the president's prospects and political fortune.

If the tariffs stay, we are going to see stagflation, which will significantly worsen very soon, and lead to massive unpopularity of the MAGA agenda.

Ok.

Won't help chaos confusion and illegal incompetence is not the winning recipe

I sort of agree. It will undo many but not all of the Trump tariffs. They are done under two different authorities and this only covers part of them. The negative is it pulls the rug out from under a good portion of trump's foreign policy leverage, and that could have some negative effects as well.

The deficit needs to be dramatically reduced!

We are getting to the point where the interest on the debt is overwhelming everything else! Its over $1 trillion right now second only to SS: more than Defense. more than Medicare and more than Medicaid!!!!!!. We are never cutting spending, so taxes it is and tariffs are a tax.

Long live the tariffs!

Nah. We're clearly in a civil war. He just needs to defy the courts.

shiftyandquick said:

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is if SCOTUS deems his tariffs illegal (which they are in my opinion). There is no national emergency requiring the largest increase in tariffs in history on almost every country in the world. He has to go to congress for that.

If SCOTUS rolls back the tariffs, we may actually see the economy rebound. And as the economy goes, so does the president's prospects and political fortune.

If the tariffs stay, we are going to see stagflation, which will significantly worsen very soon, and lead to massive unpopularity of the MAGA agenda.

---

The problem is, other countries can quickly change their tariff policies and if we can't respond in a timely manner, we become the fool getting bent over by more agile players in the game.

AggieZUUL said:

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shiftyandquick said:

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is if SCOTUS deems his tariffs illegal (which they are in my opinion). There is no national emergency requiring the largest increase in tariffs in history on almost every country in the world. He has to go to congress for that.

If SCOTUS rolls back the tariffs, we may actually see the economy rebound. And as the economy goes, so does the president's prospects and political fortune.

If the tariffs stay, we are going to see stagflation, which will significantly worsen very soon, and lead to massive unpopularity of the MAGA agenda.

---

The problem is, other countries can quickly change their tariff policies and if we can't respond in a timely manner, we become the fool getting bent over by more agile players in the game.

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This ruling, either way, would not affect a president's ability to respond with reciprocal tariffs.

Our national debt and dependence on foreign suppliers of critical resources and products is in facr a national emergency. Tarrifs provide leverage to fix that as the USA is by far the world's greatest consumer. Tariffs also provide revenue to balance the budget and stop growing the debt. If debt growth stops, economic growth over the next two decades will diminish the debt dramatically in relative terms. When you are in a hole, stop digging.

The fact that Schumer wants to negotiate as soon as Trump said he would use tariff revenue to pay for emergency SNAP benefits tells me that tariffs & Trump have more staying power than we might give them credit for.

You do realize, don't you, that a joint resolution from Congress that there is no emergency would strip Trump of his powers to impose Tariffs based on the Emergency Powers act.

But, a ruling from SCOTUS that Trump's tariffs from the IEEPA are illegal will not impact his ability to impose tariffs under, for example, the Trade Act. Trump just used the IEEPA because it creates less red tape.

Quote:

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Our national debt and dependence on foreign suppliers of critical resources and products is in facr a national emergency.

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IEEPA was put in place to respond to "unusual and extraordinary threats to the national security, foreign policy, or economy of the United States that originates in whole or substantial part outside the United States."

Both our national debt and our use of offshore manufacturing and parts source has been going on for the better part of 70 years so no one in their right minds can say these two conditions are unusual.

They also did not creep up due to foreign actors. They were both conscious decisions made by elected officials in terms of the national debt and American corporate managers regarding outsourcing.

Everyone and their mother knows Trump's citing of this act to underwrite tariffs was ridiculous even by his standards.

MagnumLoad said:

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Our national debt and dependence on foreign suppliers of critical resources and products is in facr a national emergency. Tarrifs provide leverage to fix that as the USA is by far the world's greatest consumer. Tariffs also provide revenue to balance the budget and stop growing the debt. If debt growth stops, economic growth over the next two decades will diminish the debt dramatically in relative terms. When you are in a hole, stop digging.

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This right here. National emergency for sure. If China wanted to bend us over on our prescription medication during Covid, they could have wrecked us. Still can. Imagine the wailing if they decided to greatly slow down production and transport. Of course they would NEVER do that, right? We need these tariffs to level the field and bring all critical manufacturing back here and if that involves pain for everyone, we should all be ready to share it.

I fail to understand or comprehend how levying a tariff on a foreign country being against the law. How does our constitution protect import trade? Shouldn't it defend domestic producers above all?

Quote:

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I fail to understand or comprehend how levying a tariff on a foreign country being against the law. How does our constitution protect import trade? Shouldn't it defend domestic producers above all?

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It is not illegal for the U.S. to levy a tariff. It just has to be levied by Congress except in the very narrow circumstances as defined by the IEEPA. The constitution is pretty clear on the matter.

Trump's White House unilaterally slapping tariffs because they don't like Ronald Reagan ads running in Toronto is not what the founding fathers wanted or embodied into law.

And no . . . . our willingness to move past uncompetitive industries is one of our historical strengths. We did not protect the textile industry and that freed up capital to invent Silicon Valley and the Biotech Industry and Wall Street and the most advanced Energy firms in the world.

shiftyandquick said:

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If SCOTUS rolls back the tariffs, we may actually see the economy rebound.

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We might actually see other countries raise tarrifs against us again which would hurt US manufacturing.

I look forward to your TED talk on tarrifs though

SCOTUS may or may not be skeptical of the proportionality of the tariffs with regard to the preceding emergency, but Congress has the authority to override or cancel any presidential emergency declaration. If they don't, my argument would be that they accept the tariffs.

IF (ififififififif) the 18 Trillion in new investment actually happens, that alone could fix a lot.

Sq 17 said:

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Won't help chaos confusion and illegal incompetence is not the winning recipe

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What illegal incompetence? Seems like he is winning except with lower court judges. Do you have specific examples? I can't think of any SC beatdown like Biden got twice but maybe I missed them.

shiftyandquick said:

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is if SCOTUS deems his tariffs illegal (which they are in my opinion). There is no national emergency requiring the largest increase in tariffs in history on almost every country in the world. He has to go to congress for that.

If SCOTUS rolls back the tariffs, we may actually see the economy rebound. And as the economy goes, so does the president's prospects and political fortune.

If the tariffs stay, we are going to see stagflation, which will significantly worsen very soon, and lead to massive unpopularity of the MAGA agenda.

---

You want to be right so much. The last paragraph is an opinion and not a fact.

Windy City Ag said:

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Quote:

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Our national debt and dependence on foreign suppliers of critical resources and products is in facr a national emergency.

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IEEPA was put in place to respond to "unusual and extraordinary threats to the national security, foreign policy, or economy of the United States that originates in whole or substantial part outside the United States."

Both our national debt and our use of offshore manufacturing and parts source has been going on for the better part of 70 years so no one in their right minds can say these two conditions are unusual.

They also did not creep up due to foreign actors. They were both conscious decisions made by elected officials in terms of the national debt and American corporate managers regarding outsourcing.

Everyone and their mother knows Trump's citing of this act to underwrite tariffs was ridiculous even by his standards.

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The sand will eventually consolidate to the point that folks can't pull their head out it.

The frog in boiling water has an extraordinary emergency but doesn't realize it. Just because it occurred over time and mostly but not entirely of our own doing, doesn't make it any less an emergency.

AggieZUUL said:

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shiftyandquick said:

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is if SCOTUS deems his tariffs illegal (which they are in my opinion). There is no national emergency requiring the largest increase in tariffs in history on almost every country in the world. He has to go to congress for that.

If SCOTUS rolls back the tariffs, we may actually see the economy rebound. And as the economy goes, so does the president's prospects and political fortune.

If the tariffs stay, we are going to see stagflation, which will significantly worsen very soon, and lead to massive unpopularity of the MAGA agenda.

---

The problem is, other countries can quickly change their tariff policies and if we can't respond in a timely manner, we become the fool getting bent over by more agile players in the game.

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what a lot of folks just won't accept is we were already being bent over by other countries - all the tariffs did was attempt level the field for fair trading practices.

Reports are saying that Roberts is insinuating that tariffs are same as taxes but he was okay with the Obamacare crap as not being a tax. Isn't that a correct memory? Seems comparable to my simple mind.

Aggieland Proud said:

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Reports are saying that Roberts is insinuating that tariffs are same as taxes but he was okay with the Obamacare crap as not being a tax. Isn't that a correct memory? Seems comparable to my simple mind.

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No, you mixed it up in your memory. Roberts became convinced that requiring someone to buy Obamacare was a tax, which he was ok with as a concept because Congress has taxing powers clearly spelled out in the constitution.

Congress should vote to rubber stamp all of Trumps tariffs because they have been a resounding success. They are generating tons of revenue, leveling the playing field, and contributing to world peace.

Okay. I stand corrected. Carry on everyone.

The tariffs are too baked in at this point for a SC over-ruling to "save the day." People have already paid them, and some of those costs are still being passed thru the value chain to consumers. Not all, but some.

Plus, it's not clear that a SC overrule would result in an instant refund of tariffs. Those who paid them might have to apply for refunds which could take months.

Another plus... Trump is committed to tariffs. He's already said if the SC overrules he will just use other tariffs allowed under the law to pursue his agenda.

For better or worse, he is married to tariffs and that ship has sailed. What remains to be seen is if they are net "good" or a net "bad" in the eyes of voters as the 2026 midterms approach. My view is they are a net "bad" and will cost the R's dearly, but that's a year from now and a lot can change.

backintexas2013 said:

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Sq 17 said:

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Won't help chaos confusion and illegal incompetence is not the winning recipe

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What illegal incompetence? Seems like he is winning except with lower court judges. Do you have specific examples? I can't think of any SC beatdown like Biden got twice but maybe I missed them.

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If the Suoreme court rules he did not have the authority to enact the tariffs under the law he cited then he will have acted illegally and If he did not have the authority and started a trade war that was not legally allowed then that would be in a word Incompetent

To have your signature foreign policy objective blown up by the court would also create chaos and confusion

The original OP put forth if Trumo loses at the SC on the legality of some of his tariffs it might be a good thing

Which I disagreed with that opinion

If SCOTUS says the tariffs are not allowed and a presidential over reach then That's not a winner

So far he hasn't lost. This will be the first that I can remember. You make it sound like a pattern. It's not. It's not like Joe taking the ***** slapping. If Trump loses it's a bad loss but only one.

OP stated that in OP opinion he would lose

Just read my post as a reply to OPs assertion and it will hopefully make more sense

Tariff revenue won't meaningfully pay for the deficit - at most 10%

Also, when Social Security went before SCOTUS, they used the logic that it was a tax from Congress, so it was legal which set the precedent for Obamacare.

I want all the tariffs to stay in place.

But make them reciprocal. If X tariffs us y%, we do the same.

That said, I don't know why we have to run to the Supreme Court for every little thing in governance. Who is running the country, the President or the Supreme Court??

SCOTUS is going to kill these Tariffs.

infinity ag said:

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That said, I don't know why we have to run to the Supreme Court for every little thing in governance. Who is running the country, the President or the Supreme Court??

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Trump's tariffs are not a "little thing."

I was glad when the SC reined in Biden's attempts at massive student loan forgiveness.

Will be equally happy if Trump learns he can't decree his own laws either.

I support the vast majority of his agenda, but he over-reached on these "reciprocal" tariffs. They're not even reciprocal, lol, but instead driven by trade imbalances.

He knows he over-reached. Two lower courts know he over-reached. And the SC knows he over-reached.