Massive layoffs announced while companies are doing well. Wages aren't going to grow with all these layoffs. All types of insurance cost are ridiculous right now. The Obamacare premium increase is wild and lots of companies eating the increase or employees paying more. Electricity prices up double digits. Natural gas prices went over $4 last week quietly. Oil prices are steady keeping gas prices down though which is a help.

So many people are going to have to cutback on their spending it's going to trickle everywhere. And this is happening while we have $2T deficit. Where is the money going?!

People have been able to hang on but I think these health insurance costs are going to be the final nail. Families don't have the capacity for an additional $2K. And worse its $2K that doesn't bring any joy, it's a sunk cost on insurance that as Trump always says you've had to get hit by a bus for it to pay. People are cutting back on Chipotle which is decent value for a healthier option.

2026 is going to be ugly.

Trump should have cut government. Not grow it.

If you have a decent amount of money invested and are already well into paying off your home loan that you have on 3% interest, you are likely doing pretty well in this economy.

If you are squarely in the middle class, not yet a homeowner and don't have as much wealth generation with the stock market boom you are much less likely to be feeling confident.

Majority of GDP growth over the last year has been tech investment. Absent the AI build out, estimates are GDP growth would have ticked up about 1.5% less than the reported number. Consumers have remained resilient overall, but it seems to be the upper middle class and high income earners who are driving much of the spending. Again, this has a lot to do with the stock boom.

Middle income earners and lower are spending less and credit card usage has risen. Subprime auto loans are defaulting at a very high rate.

Employment growth and unemployment have been relatively flat. The data suggests a low fire, low hire, low quit job market. If you lose your job it is now much harder to find another one but the number of job losses actually haven't been all that bad outside a few major corps. Saw an estimate now to demographic changes and the crackdown on immigration that the US only needs to generate somewhere around 50,000 jobs per month to keep employment flat. In the past it was double that or more.

The economy is dividing into a K shape. Some people are soaring while other people are diving.

Dan Scott said:

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Massive layoffs announced while companies are doing well. Wages aren't going to grow with all these layoffs.

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H1-B visas and offshoring are filling the gaps.

GeeBee said:

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Dan Scott said:

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Massive layoffs announced while companies are doing well. Wages aren't going to grow with all these layoffs.

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H1-B visas and offshoring are filling the gaps.

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Greatly reduce or get rid of them!

Dan Scott said:

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Massive layoffs announced while companies are doing well. Wages aren't going to grow with all these layoffs. All types of insurance cost are ridiculous right now. The Obamacare premium increase is wild and lots of companies eating the increase or employees paying more. Electricity prices up double digits. Natural gas prices went over $4 last week quietly. Oil prices are steady keeping gas prices down though which is a help.

So many people are going to have to cutback on their spending it's going to trickle everywhere. And this is happening while we have $2T deficit. Where is the money going?!

People have been able to hang on but I think these health insurance costs are going to be the final nail. Families don't have the capacity for an additional $2K. And worse its $2K that doesn't bring any joy, it's a sunk cost on insurance that as Trump always says you've had to get hit by a bus for it to pay. People are cutting back on Chipotle which is decent value for a healthier option.

2026 is going to be ugly.

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No, it will be fine.

We are moving into an economy where working hard for a corporation does not pay. They will kick you out when someone needs a bigger bonus.

We are moving towards an investor economy fueled by slaves from countries like India, China etc. Just put money in the market, diversify wisely and sit back and watch $$$ roll in. That is what the rich moneybags do and they will not let themselves become poor. Hitching your bandwagon to theirs is the way to go.

No need to work hard in America any more.

This is how I paid all my debt in 2018 and have a very healthy net worth. I am in to contract work, I don't want to work as an employee anymore. No more going back to toxic 3rd world environments.

(If you think I am joking, I am not. Remember we are in 2025, not 1955 where hard work and loyalty mattered)

higher productivity to the rescue!

OP so desperate for a collapse

Good points Dan. Health insurance costs are so high. I'm an old guy and the cost of everything seems high to me.

On the flip side, Baby Boomers and those that own stocks and their own home and other assets have been doing well. Plus Baby Boomers now qualify for Medicare so their health insurance got cheaper. Plus Baby Boomers either spend it now or die with it so they are spending.

Tech spending is through the roof so anybody in that is making money.

Tradesmen are doing well. Electricians, welders, HVAC guys, and construction hands are building AI Data centers and building out the grid.

Obviously Wall Street is killing it as are lawyers, engineers and other professionals who solve problems and get things done.

So, many in our economy are still doing well. But if layoffs accelerate, the music will stop at some point.

Not a scientific study but restaurants are expensive and they're full.

AtticusMatlock said:

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Consumers have remained resilient overall, but it seems to be the upper middle class and high income earners who are driving much of the spending. Again, this has a lot to do with the stock boom.

The economy is dividing into a K shape. Some people are soaring while other people are diving.

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Fact. They are and at record numbers. We have two economic strata at this point.

From the WSJ today:

Quote:

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The top 10% of earners made up 49.2% of all spending nationally in the second quarter of 2025, a record high driven by spending by the very richest in this group, according to an analysis of government data from Moody's Analytics. Spending by the top 10%, a group that includes households earning roughly $275,000 a year or more, rose 4.4% from a year earlier, compared with a 2% increase for people earning less.

---

Yukon Cornelius said:

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OP so desperate for a collapse

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Don't know about OP, but I am a die-hard Trump supporter and concur with the OP.
It's a weird economy. Unemployment is low, for now, but it is absolutely an employer's market. I know a lot of people who hate their jobs, but can't move because there are about 500 applications for every job out there (I am in Tech).

H1Bs are a symptom. Companies are moving jobs overseas whenever they can, and that's problematic. Layoffs are only going to make this worse. I don't see anything on the horizon that will reverse the trend.

For the first time in my 30 year career, I am genuinely worried.

Worried about what exactly?

jja79 said:

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Not a scientific study but restaurants are expensive and they're full.

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America is driven by debt.
People drive nice cars too. And pay crazy monthly amounts for 7 years.

What's that saying...things go bad slowly, and then really fast.

Yukon Cornelius said:

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Worried about what exactly?

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Job mobility, stagnant wages, jobs moving overseas absolutely unchecked.
Democrats would love nothing more than tanking the economy, but outside of Trump no one seems to care on the R side.

Health insurance is getting more expensive, and regulatory bodies are as active as ever. Both of those are detrimental to growth and will require Congress to act. We are getting more uncompetitive with every passing day.

Keep this up, and the Rs are going to get thrashed in the midterms.

My company went through layoffs last year (fired all their US IT employees, and moved all jobs to India). I had some excellent engineers on my team, who couldn't find jobs for 6 months. And then when they did find it, for one of them it was at half the salary.

deddog said:

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Yukon Cornelius said:

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Worried about what exactly?

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Job mobility, stagnant wages, jobs moving overseas absolutely unchecked.
Democrats would love nothing more than tanking the economy, but outside of Trump no one seems to care on the R side.

Health insurance is getting more expensive, and regulatory bodies are as active as ever. Both of those are detrimental to growth and will require Congress to act. We are getting more uncompetitive with every passing day.

Keep this up, and the Rs are going to get thrashed in the midterms.

---

Our debt is the biggest issue but most don't care and many just laugh at it as if it doesn't matter.

So...."Thanks Tom Fox!" is what we should all be saying.

deddog said:

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Yukon Cornelius said:

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OP so desperate for a collapse

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Don't know about OP, but I am a die-hard Trump supporter and concur with the OP.
It's a weird economy. Unemployment is low, for now, but it is absolutely an employer's market. I know a lot of people who hate their jobs, but can't move because there are about 500 applications for every job out there (I am in Tech).

H1Bs are a symptom. Companies are moving jobs overseas whenever they can, and that's problematic. Layoffs are only going to make this worse. I don't see anything on the horizon that will reverse the trend.

For the first time in my 30 year career, I am genuinely worried.

---

How is unemployment low? Look through Linkedin, so many people looking for jobs and layoffs announced every day.

If official numbers say it is low, they are lying. Like Biden did.

YouBet said:

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deddog said:

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Yukon Cornelius said:

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Worried about what exactly?

---

Job mobility, stagnant wages, jobs moving overseas absolutely unchecked.
Democrats would love nothing more than tanking the economy, but outside of Trump no one seems to care on the R side.

Health insurance is getting more expensive, and regulatory bodies are as active as ever. Both of those are detrimental to growth and will require Congress to act. We are getting more uncompetitive with every passing day.

Keep this up, and the Rs are going to get thrashed in the midterms.

---

Our debt is the biggest issue but most don't care and many just laugh at it as if it doesn't matter.

---

Right.

Do like I did and pay off all debt. Be frugal.

The next step after that is to pay future purchases with cash (no debt). I just did that.
Let the fools go on credit and die on that hill.

The answer - AI

2025 AI is solely responsible for about 1/2 of our GDP increase.

2026 and 2027, AI is projected to be responsible of 75% of GDP growth.

The whole reason most analysts think we are not in a recession - AI.

A lot riding on AI. If it works out, a rising tide could raise all ships.

But, there are going to be a lot of people are going to be left on the shore, and it is likely not going to be good for them.

ETA - spelling

Agreed when I was still working I paid off my house and cars. Drove the cars to 200K or more (took real good care of them), saved money and paid cash for their replacements. Sold my Houston house and CS townhouse and cash for my CS free standing house.

Retirement has been a breeze with no debt!

Dan Scott said:

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Massive layoffs announced while companies are doing well. Wages aren't going to grow with all these layoffs. All types of insurance cost are ridiculous right now. The Obamacare premium increase is wild and lots of companies eating the increase or employees paying more. Electricity prices up double digits. Natural gas prices went over $4 last week quietly. Oil prices are steady keeping gas prices down though which is a help.

So many people are going to have to cutback on their spending it's going to trickle everywhere. And this is happening while we have $2T deficit. Where is the money going?!

People have been able to hang on but I think these health insurance costs are going to be the final nail. Families don't have the capacity for an additional $2K. And worse its $2K that doesn't bring any joy, it's a sunk cost on insurance that as Trump always says you've had to get hit by a bus for it to pay. People are cutting back on Chipotle which is decent value for a healthier option.

2026 is going to be ugly.

---

Remember when Obama told everyone that we all have to go through this together but then kept handing out trillions in freebies to the losers of society?

This is what it actually means to go through this together.

Already did. I've done everything I can do for my family at this point.

Debt free, invested consistently (but could have done much more) entire career, moved out of city.

infinity ag said:

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YouBet said:

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deddog said:

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Yukon Cornelius said:

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Worried about what exactly?

---

Job mobility, stagnant wages, jobs moving overseas absolutely unchecked.
Democrats would love nothing more than tanking the economy, but outside of Trump no one seems to care on the R side.

Health insurance is getting more expensive, and regulatory bodies are as active as ever. Both of those are detrimental to growth and will require Congress to act. We are getting more uncompetitive with every passing day.

Keep this up, and the Rs are going to get thrashed in the midterms.

---

Our debt is the biggest issue but most don't care and many just laugh at it as if it doesn't matter.

---

Right.

Do like I did and pay off all debt. Be frugal.

The next step after that is to pay future purchases with cash (no debt). I just did that.
Let the fools go on credit and die on that hill.

---

You should really write a book. Or maybe two of them.

Hard work still matters, even if it's not 1955.

agracer said:

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Hard work still matters, even if it's not 1955.

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Absolutely and many who do this are rewarded.

infinity ag said:

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deddog said:

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Yukon Cornelius said:

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OP so desperate for a collapse

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Don't know about OP, but I am a die-hard Trump supporter and concur with the OP.
It's a weird economy. Unemployment is low, for now, but it is absolutely an employer's market. I know a lot of people who hate their jobs, but can't move because there are about 500 applications for every job out there (I am in Tech).

H1Bs are a symptom. Companies are moving jobs overseas whenever they can, and that's problematic. Layoffs are only going to make this worse. I don't see anything on the horizon that will reverse the trend.

For the first time in my 30 year career, I am genuinely worried.

---

How is unemployment low? Look through Linkedin, so many people looking for jobs and layoffs announced every day.

If official numbers say it is low, they are lying. Like Biden did.

---

They've been lying a lot longer than that.

Isn't unemployment based on new applications for unemployment? I don't think it accounts for folks whose benefits have ended, folks who are underemployed (i.e. folks who took a big cut in pay for benefits), folks who have just given up, or retired folks.

Looking for a job on Linkedin is not unemployed

infinity ag said:

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deddog said:

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Yukon Cornelius said:

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OP so desperate for a collapse

---

Don't know about OP, but I am a die-hard Trump supporter and concur with the OP.
It's a weird economy. Unemployment is low, for now, but it is absolutely an employer's market. I know a lot of people who hate their jobs, but can't move because there are about 500 applications for every job out there (I am in Tech).

H1Bs are a symptom. Companies are moving jobs overseas whenever they can, and that's problematic. Layoffs are only going to make this worse. I don't see anything on the horizon that will reverse the trend.

For the first time in my 30 year career, I am genuinely worried.

---

How is unemployment low? Look through Linkedin, so many people looking for jobs and layoffs announced every day.

If official numbers say it is low, they are lying. Like Biden did.

---

I should have quoted "low" employment

Aglaw97 said:

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agracer said:

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Hard work still matters, even if it's not 1955.

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Absolutely and many who do this are rewarded.

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I think what gets looked over here is that you have to have a job to invest in the first place. I've worked my ass off my entire career. InfinityAg tends to leave out that half of the equation.

You can't just invest yourself to financial freedom without the cash flow to make the actual investments. An that cash flow comes from working for the man in the vast majority of cases.

This guy has the best advice for y'all.

1) Avoid debt like the plague
2) Live under your means
3) Invest in appreciating assets

Not that complicated. Works in 2025 just as it did in 1985. Build wealth one dollar at a time.

aTmAg said:

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Trump should have cut government. Not grow it.

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How much more can it be cut? Its not even open.

This is the answer.

If you weren't invested in the market or an alternative investment the last 5-6 years, you've been lapped.

The K-shaped economy was spurred on by COVID. Those that were barely above water or underwater are in worse shape. Those who had solid corporate jobs and "took a break" during COVID are still doing fine but they are falling behind the last group.

COVID created a situation where a whole heck of a lot of people started side businesses and got heavily into investing (stock market as well as crypto) that increased a lot of people's net worth exponentially.

Yes, there are a lot of people out there spending money they don't have (still) via credit card debt, but there are also a ton of people who became millionaires a few times over between 2020 and 2024.