https://www.wsj.com/world/africa/al-qaeda-is-on-the-brink-of-taking-over-a-country-ffd35ea4?st=aFzRdC&reflink=article_copyURL_share

Took them a bit longer than they planned but it looks like Al Qaeda is about to get its own country if you aren't counting Syria.

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Al Qaeda militants are moving closer to seizing the capital of the West African nation of Mali, which, should the city fall, would become the first country in the world run by the U.S.-designated terrorist group.

Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin, which translates as Support Group for Islam and Muslims, is betting on a creeping takeover rather than an all-out assault, European security officials say. "The longer the blockade drags on, the closer Bamako comes to collapse," said Raphael Parens, a fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, a nonpartisan policy center in Philadelphia.

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Africa is going to ultimately morph into an Arab / Islamist continent and there is nothing much we can do about that. Below quote doesn't even factor the Sudan War happening right now where Arabs are committing genocide against the black population. That war is full on Rwanda now. More here on that one: https://www.wsj.com/world/africa/sudan-militia-armed-with-drones-hunts-down-black-population-of-darfur-08469935?st=rgoifC&reflink=article_copyURL_share

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Al Qaeda and Islamic State militants are conducting insurgencies across a vast area of West Africa, including Niger, Burkina Faso and Mali in the arid Sahel, and creeping toward the traditionally more prosperous countriesBenin, Ivory Coast, Togo and Ghanaalong the Gulf of Guinea coast.

Mali, with a population of 21 million over an area triple the size of California, looks increasingly like it could fall first.

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Russia's Africa Corps will have something to say about it. They partner with the Malian government and also work to secure mining operations that Russia uses to help fund their own initiatives.

ETA: If they can't effectively secure Mali, or at least the parts they care about, then it could be a further indicator of Russia's degraded military and geopolitical strength.

Waffledynamics said:

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Russia's Africa Corps will have something to say about it. They partner with the Malian government and also work to secure mining operations that Russia uses to help fund their own initiatives.

ETA: If they can't effectively secure Mali, then it could be a further indicator of Russia's degraded military and geopolitical strength.

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They've already been neutralized and are getting their ass kicked. In Mali, they aren't doing anything there at this point besides helping with some aid.

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Earlier this year, the Russian military sent a new contingent of fighters under its direct control, but they lacked the experience to fight effectively in Mali's rough terrain. The militants easily ambushed their joint convoys with Malian forces, allowing the insurgents to seize more weapons and lay plans to seize the capital.

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Separate article on Russia in Africa. Getting their ass kicked pretty much everywhere and they are starting to pull back from Africa: https://www.wsj.com/world/africa/russias-ambitious-plans-in-africa-are-unraveling-f151906d?st=SZUYoD&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

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The Kremlin's new official guns-for-hire military force, the Africa Corps, has failed to replicate the financial success and political sway once held by Russia's private Wagner Group mercenary outfit. And some of Wagner's own African ventures have unraveled since 2023 when its founder, Yevgeny Prigozhin, rebelled against President Vladimir Putin and then died when an explosive device blew the wing off his plane at 28,000 feet.

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[url=https://www.wsj.com/world/africa/russias-ambitious-plans-in-africa-are-unraveling-f151906d?st=SZUYoD&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink][/url]

I hadn't seen that they were actually pulling back. Wow.

I guess I won't be visiting Timbuktu anytime soon.

That Al Qaeda still exists after '01 is another testimony to the 43 tenure of limited impact. There was no Nazi party or Tojo party after the Pear Harbor triggered war.

Waffledynamics said:

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I hadn't seen that they were actually pulling back. Wow.

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Yeah, I wonder what the Chinese are thinking since they've put so much into it in the last few years. If the Islamists keep spreading, they can kiss their investments good-bye.

Someone will need to build a giant wall here to keep Africa contained via land.



I have a newsletter if you would like to see more professional grade strategic maps like this one.

What is that wall going to do?

I know it was a joke, but northern Africa is almost more radical Islamic then the middle east.

Islam brings nothing but death and destruction with it.

texagbeliever said:

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What is that wall going to do?

I know it was a joke, but northern Africa is almost more radical Islamic then the middle east.

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Nothing. Israel will be fighting a massive war at some point in its future when the African Muslims get enough gumption and bodies to attack them from the west.

Africa seems more set on killing all the Christians in Africa and then taking over Europe. Israel is likely not as important to them.

texagbeliever said:

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Africa seems more set on killing all the Christians in Africa and then taking over Europe. Israel is likely not as important to them.

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I'm thinking long-term. Once they take most of Africa they will naturally want to extend their global jihad and Israel is the crown jewel of that jihad.

which falls to Islam first?

Africa or France or the United Kingdom?

great job to the leftists in the West!

Or turn the tables in a more cynical sense. Empower Egypt to be mightier and even more like Ataturk Turkey than it already is. That would form a natural barrier for some decades. Nothing lasts (see Turkey itself) but its an approach.

LMCane said:

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which falls to Islam first?

Africa or France or the United Kingdom?

great job to the leftists in the West!

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Good question. Africa is so huge it's hard to even grasp it so you would have to weigh the logistics of conquering a massive continent housed with people who provide little to no resistance vs much smaller pieces of geography that have people who can defend it, if they choose to not commit suicide.

YouBet said:

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LMCane said:

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which falls to Islam first?

Africa or France or the United Kingdom?

great job to the leftists in the West!

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Good question. Africa is so huge it's hard to even grasp it so you would have to weigh the logistics of conquering a massive continent housed with people who provide little to no resistance vs much smaller pieces of geography that have people who can defend it, if they choose to not commit suicide.

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Given the Soros-toned enabling cultural ruin leadership in Europe/UK currently, the answer here may surprise. It might well be Africa that would be harder. The Catholic and Christian "trad" brand is very strong in Africa, not the weak variety here. Take the gloves off and tell them go into "Crusade" mode and they may well do so. Then it would be just a matter of do they have a friendly right wing govt to help them.

I wouldn't count on a significant chunk of Africa falling under one banner. There are too many competing interests. They'll always fight each other for the most part.

That's huge and concerning news If Al Qaeda takes Mali's capital, it would mark the first country fully run by a U.S.-designated terrorist group, A geopolitical shift like this could ripple across global security and markets.

Should have established Kurdistan as a reward for the Kurds fighting harder than anybody in the region against Islamists. They would own all of Syria on their own by now.

YouBet said:

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texagbeliever said:

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Africa seems more set on killing all the Christians in Africa and then taking over Europe. Israel is likely not as important to them.

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I'm thinking long-term. Once they take most of Africa they will naturally want to extend their global jihad and Israel is the crown jewel of that jihad.

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I think as they grow more dominant sectarian troubles will increase. I think that region will be too hard to unify.
Plus at some point America will likely intervene against them.

aTmAg said:

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Should have established Kurdistan as a reward for the Kurds fighting harder than anybody in the region against Islamists. They would own all of Syria on their own by now.

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We were not a good actor much of this century. Especially after 2009. The window was missed.

titan said:

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aTmAg said:

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Should have established Kurdistan as a reward for the Kurds fighting harder than anybody in the region against Islamists. They would own all of Syria on their own by now.

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We were not a good actor much of this century. Especially after 2009. The window was missed.

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We've been absolutely clueless on foreign policy since Reagan left office.

aTmAg said:

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titan said:

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aTmAg said:

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Should have established Kurdistan as a reward for the Kurds fighting harder than anybody in the region against Islamists. They would own all of Syria on their own by now.

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We were not a good actor much of this century. Especially after 2009. The window was missed.

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We've been absolutely clueless on foreign policy since Reagan left office.

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I disagree. Our politicians have been making bank on our foreign policy. It isnt ineptitude but different priorities...

We could have eliminated Al-Qaeda and the Taliban when they were all bottled up in Tora Bora.

But we didn't have the guts to authorize the release of the B-61-11 bombs.

aTmAg said:

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titan said:

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aTmAg said:

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Should have established Kurdistan as a reward for the Kurds fighting harder than anybody in the region against Islamists. They would own all of Syria on their own by now.

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We were not a good actor much of this century. Especially after 2009. The window was missed.

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We've been absolutely clueless on foreign policy since Reagan left office.

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Trump has obviously been the best since Reagan. He's made some blunders but largely been really good.

CDUB98 said:

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Islam brings nothing but death and destruction with it.

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don't forget about the pedophilia.

YouBet said:

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aTmAg said:

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titan said:

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aTmAg said:

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Should have established Kurdistan as a reward for the Kurds fighting harder than anybody in the region against Islamists. They would own all of Syria on their own by now.

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We were not a good actor much of this century. Especially after 2009. The window was missed.

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We've been absolutely clueless on foreign policy since Reagan left office.

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Trump has obviously been the best since Reagan. He's made some blunders but largely been really good.

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Being the best since Reagan is a really low bar.

Not letting Israel finish the job in Iran was a huge mistake that I think will come to haunt us later. And not letting them finish off Hamas will come back to haunt the Israelis.


But I agree he has been better than Obama and Biden. Obama taking out Gaddafi after he ended his nuke program probably being the #1 mistake so far in this century. That taught the entire world that they better hurry up and get their nuclear immunity card. Leaving our allies to die in Afghanistan is #2.

Quote:

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Africa is going to ultimately morph into an Arab / Islamist continent and there is nothing much we can do about that.

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North Africa has been Islamic for well over 1000 years. The Islamic rules of dealing with others took care of that a long time ago

It's ok to lie to spread Islam
It's ok to take slaves, but you can't take a Muslim as a slave
Better trade conditions if you're Muslim