I strongly believe AI will increasingly hurt new grads disproprtionate with more senior position. However, I've been unsatisfied with the quality of evidence in several recent Forum 16 discussions on CS grads.

I would like to add this post to that discussion, probably my last OP on the topic for quite a while

"The number of students earning a bachelor's degree in computer and information sciences has more than doubled over the last decade, from 51,696 in the 2013-2014 academic year to 112,720 in the 2022-2023 academic year."

Related associate's degrees increased at a similar rate.

Other important factors: AI, H1Bs, leveling of hyped post-COVID demand, decreasing quality of CS graduates...

But, it seems to me the largest source of pain for CS majors currently finding jobs is the oversupply of students pursuing a "sure thing" future and just not enough demand.

There is no such thing as a "sure thing".

https://www.studentclearinghouse.org/nscblog/computer-science-has-highest-increase-in-bachelors-earners/

BTW, plenty of "fault" to go around, but these grads are adults and made their own choices. In the end, it is on them and their parents to figure this out.

I would start with not believing the educational establishment; "we" are largely self-serving. Deans will do almost almost anything to fill seats.

The IT jobs are off shored. Everyone in any large firm can confirm this. Stateside IT personnel are more like project managers and teachers grading the work of the offshore team.

There would be enough demand if the jobs weren't first given to Indians who will take lower pay first (either in America through visas or in India through offshoring).

It's really that simple.

texagbeliever said:

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The IT jobs are off shored. Everyone in any large firm can confirm this. Stateside IT personnel are more like project managers and teachers grading the work of the offshore team.

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I had the joy of managing a "H1B" team in the building AND an offshore team. Simultaneously.

But there are still many US individual contributors.

I agree though, an increasing number will be offshored and the new H1B fee is likely to accelerate this.

And I am not complaining about the fee; I've said in other threads I don't see many good options.

AI hasn't taken a single CS job. It's all being outsourced to Indians.

Colonel Kurtz said:

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AI hasn't taken a single CS job. It's all being outsourced to Indians.

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I think its a combination. AI has definitely contributed to the higher UE for new grads.

Two sons who had CS degrees.

One is a cybersecurity analyst for the DoD. The other works for a data mining company. Both are very gainfully employed.

fc2112 said:

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Two sons who had CS degrees.

One is a cybersecurity analyst for the DoD. The other works for a data mining company. Both are very gainfully employed.

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And?

Been coding since 98. This is the worst job market that I have ever seen. Even 2008 had more job opportunities.

The company that I work for is covered up with CS resumes at career fairs. Never happened before.

Colonel Kurtz said:

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AI hasn't taken a single CS job. It's all being outsourced to Indians.

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Maybe one day soon, we can get AI to replace all of the Indians. Would certainly be cheaper.

The one sure thing is mechanical engineering with a focus on automation and implementation of artificial intelligence.

There are plenty of good jobs available in certain types of practical Engineering if you're smart enough and willing to work hard : Civil , Mechanical , Electrical , Marine ( there are bidding wars at graduation by shipping companies at the 5 Maritime Academy's ) Petroleum and Mining Engineering are also in great demand !

I'll write a longer diatribe later but the simple facts are, AI isn't taking any new graduates jobs yet.

Crappy management and poor leadership, especially from the subcontinent, are increasing the number of offshore bodies being hired which is decreasing the number of recent American graduates getting hired.

I recently hired some fresh Computer Science grads and it's shocking how little they know about computer systems and programming. Especially networking.

I don't know if there are quality graduates out there that I'm not seeing but I can tell you, some of the ones I interviewed were woefully unprepared.

So if I'm spending $70k on a US grad, I could get 7-8 Indian grads who will be worse but, they make management happy because they're cheap.

If you want a sure-thing job for the near-to-mid term, learn how to efficiently fact check AI through hallucination-free sources.

That is what entry-level analysts are going to be doing for the next 5 years or so, in pretty much any field that deals with facts and math.

The only sure thing these days has Jon Cusack in it…

oysterbayAG said:

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There are plenty of good jobs available in certain types of practical Engineering if you're smart enough and willing to work hard : Civil , Mechanical , Electrical , Marine ( there are bidding wars at graduation by shipping companies at the 5 Maritime Academy's ) Petroleum and Mining Engineering are also in great demand !

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I agree those types of Engineering are a better choice than Computer Science these days. My nephew is a newly graduated Civil Engineer that got hired right away, and still getting a lot of job offers in the last 6 months...He has an apprenticeship job with a good company...

Anything in IT these days they expect you to work with a skeleton crew in the US and be a slave while they offshore jobs to morons that are not very effective at reducing the workload for the US workers. It's not just the Developers at my company that complain about the offshore workers, It's everyone in IT, the Network team, the DBAs, the Middleware teams, etc.

Justwinags said:

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The only sure thing these days has Jon Cusack in it…

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That movie so undervalued. One of my favorite movies (and most common dream) of my youth.

My youngest is interested in CS and I really don't know how to guide him with the speed at which all this is evolving. I sometimes wonder if would be better to get trained through the military so he comes out on the back end with 4 years of experience/training and no debt?

My 25 year old dropped out of A&M as a sophomore and is kill'n it in HVAC.

There are options.

Colonel Kurtz said:

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AI hasn't taken a single CS job. It's all being outsourced to Indians.

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I wish companies would just quit doing this. You're selling out your countrymen to save some dollars. Just do the right thing.

Not mentioned are the massive number of IT layoffs that have been consistently happening since 2020 - in the hundreds of thousands. So, you have all of these new grad CS majors with no experience competing with veteran IT talent who are competing with H1Bs who are competing with outsourcing.

The US IT talent market is completely saturated on the sidelines while Big Corp continues to import Indians or outsource. Importing Indians is 1,000% unjustifiable and should be stopped across the board, indefinitely. I'm more lenient on outsourcing simply because of where a company might be in its maturity cycle, but it still sucks.

Many of these companies are not run by Americans. Large amount of foreigners (or first time citizens) now in management.

It has changed radically in the last 15 years.

Captain Ahab said:

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Been coding since 98. This is the worst job market that I have ever seen. Even 2008 had more job opportunities.

The company that I work for is covered up with CS resumes at career fairs. Never happened before.

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Me too. I started the same time as well.

Stop H1B.
Stop offshoring.

Voila. The CS job market in the US is much much better. We have sold ourselves to India and they are eating our lunch and the fake conservatives in the US wring their hands and giggle.

AI has nothing to do with it. AI will be a good tool to let you do more with less.

Don't believe CEOs that they are replacing people with AI. That is nonsense. These people are paid to hype their companies and boost stock price and AI does that these days. No one will dare to say they found AI inadequate and decided not to use it. They would get fired. We all know CEOs blow with the wind, they don't have an original thought in their brains.

YouBet said:

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Not mentioned are the massive number of IT layoffs that have been consistently happening since 2020 - in the hundreds of thousands. So, you have all of these new grad CS majors with no experience competing with veteran IT talent who are competing with H1Bs who are competing with outsourcing.

The US IT talent market is completely saturated on the sidelines while Big Corp continues to import Indians or outsource. Importing Indians is 1,000% unjustifiable and should be stopped across the board, indefinitely. I'm more lenient on outsourcing simply because of where a company might be in its maturity cycle, but it still sucks.

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Our leaders have failed us.

One cannot trust a CEO to be patriotic and hire American, he will hire cheap and low quality Indians so he can get a higher bonus (while driving the company into the ground long term).

Government has to do it. With more regulation on these companies.

I hope Trump tariffs the pants off everyone who outsources. Hire American else GTFO.

FIDO95 said:

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Justwinags said:

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The only sure thing these days has Jon Cusack in it…

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That movie so undervalued. One of my favorite movies (and most common dream) of my youth.

My youngest is interested in CS and I really don't know how to guide him with the speed at which all this is evolving. I sometimes wonder if would be better to get trained through the military so he comes out on the back end with 4 years of experience/training and no debt?

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Don't weight everything with debt. Debt is short term. I see people ask questions like: Should I go to Stanford and incur $200k debt or should I go to Lakeside Community College and graduate with no debt? Some idiots actually advice people to go to LCC and not Stanford. With a Stanford degree, your upside is much higher.You have the opportunity to get into positions where $200k is nothing. With a CC degree you just don't have the doors opening up for you. This is just an example.

Don't worry about debt. He should do CS is that is what he enjoys and move West where the jobs are. If he likes the military, then he should go join it. But changing plans because of debt is a long term bad idea.

Gilligan said:

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My 25 year old dropped out of A&M as a sophomore and is kill'n it in HVAC.

There are options.

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Is he is own guy yet (owner of his own business)? Or working in that direction?

Trump is negotiating with Harvard for them to spend 500 million to build and run Trade Schools. Hopefully, this will catch on with other wealthy colleges including the development of more traditional Vocational High Schools.