US PPI at 2.6% YoY (-0.1% expected 0.3%)
US Core PPI at 2.8% YoY (0.3% expected 0.3%)

Still above the YoY target of 2%, but people will call for rate cuts, but good numbers for Trump

Prices for final demand services declined 0.2 percent, and the index for final demand goods rose 0.1 percent.

There was a weird trade flip of -1.7% for trade is that is the big driver here

If PPI keeps that pace and stacks on top of housing decreases, we'll print low 1s or even a sub 1 CPI in the not too distant future.

I have no idea and find all of this just incredibly confusing, especially on the backside of the story yesterday about Biden jobs numbers being absolute lies for at least the last 2 quarters of 'his' presidency and into Trump's.

Interesting take! The negative MoM PPI (e.g., -0.2% in Aug 2025) does point to deflationary pressure, which counter tariff-inflation narrative. However, San Francisco Fed’s 2025 study suggests tariffs might nudge investment goods prices up due to import reliance—context matters

— james (@The_Genesis_0) September 10, 2025

Which of those two make a better point? Not sure, but maybe 'investment assets' like the stock market are going up because, in part, investments in American manufacturing/economy are picking up as a consequence of the tariff/trade revolution that is being effectively put in place.

Note again, I am not a macro-economic/stock market/bond rate expert at all, and just try to figure out who is calling balls and strikes better than others.

Tariffs are hard to pin down because yes, they are inflationary... when taking the entire system into account. If you only take the one country numbers into account, which is what we are looking at, then it may not be inflationary (or more correctly, only inflationary to one country). It completely depends on the specifics of the markets to which they are applied. It's a snapshot of an open system. Anyone who is telling you they know exactly how tariffs will affect the American economy is either living and breathing the details of every market... or they are full of *****

inflation coming in lower than expected

and lower than the spring and summer

rate cuts better be this month!!

perfect for the economy that inflation is cooling while the stock market is all time highs

and billions of investments coming in next three years.

also while we have the doom and gloom Pravda media and the leftist politicians running around screeching that tariffs will destroy the country...

the USA was an even richer country in the 1890s when there were massive American tariffs.

and in reality- tariffs went into effect in April, and most were then lowered by June.

in a 19 trillion dollar economy- how much did the tariffs even make up as a percentage of total economic activity?!?!

nortex97 said:

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I have no idea and find all of this just incredibly confusing, especially on the backside of the story yesterday about Biden jobs numbers being absolute lies for at least the last 2 quarters of 'his' presidency and into Trump's.

Interesting take! The negative MoM PPI (e.g., -0.2% in Aug 2025) does point to deflationary pressure, which counter tariff-inflation narrative. However, San Francisco Fed’s 2025 study suggests tariffs might nudge investment goods prices up due to import reliance—context matters

— james (@The_Genesis_0) September 10, 2025

Which of those two make a better point? Not sure, but maybe 'investment assets' like the stock market are going up because, in part, investments in American manufacturing/economy are picking up as a consequence of the tariff/trade revolution that is being effectively put in place.

Note again, I am not a macro-economic/stock market/bond rate expert at all, and just try to figure out who is calling balls and strikes better than others.

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Tariffs have an inflationary impact on an economy. Full stop. That being said, I appreciate their use in a limited fashion to negotiate better deals.

All a matter of scope and consideration of other factors. In isolation, on a small time scale, absent measuring other tangential effects, you'd be correct in a way that merits no further discussion. (full stop in other words).

However, if I stick a pot of boiling water in the freezer...things will get hotter...for a few minutes then eventually the water will freeze.

Sims said:

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All a matter of scope and consideration of other factors. In isolation, on a small time scale, absent measuring other tangential effects, you'd be correct in a way that merits no further discussion. (full stop in other words).

However, if I stick a pot of boiling water in the freezer...things will get hotter...for a few minutes then eventually the water will freeze.

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Sure.. if your tariffs are so punitive that you choke out any demand whatsoever, I guess you could get deflationary pressure. However, I'm not sure that is the end goal we should be striving for. Tariffs, if used in a way consistent with historical precedent, have inflationary pressures on the country that is imposing them.

Can we have the YoY argument again? That was fun. I forget who was involved last time.

LMCane said:

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inflation coming in lower than expected

and lower than the spring and summer

rate cuts better be this month!!

perfect for the economy that inflation is cooling while the stock market is all time highs

and billions of investments coming in next three years.

---

Don't be misled...the economy is not in a good situation.

Ask those in manufacturing, especially manufacturing related to housing.

Texas 8&4 said:

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LMCane said:

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inflation coming in lower than expected

and lower than the spring and summer

rate cuts better be this month!!

perfect for the economy that inflation is cooling while the stock market is all time highs

and billions of investments coming in next three years.

---

Don't be misled...the economy is not in a good situation.

Ask those in manufacturing, especially manufacturing related to housing.

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economy is better in reality now than it was under Biden with his 9% inflation rate.