The best Podcast since the Shayam Sankir Palantir discussion...summary below

Erik Prince is a former U.S. Navy SEAL, and the founder of Blackwater. Prince heads Frontier Resource Group, a private equity firm.

Erik Bethel is a General Partner at Mare Liberum



The Shawn Ryan Show episode (#209, aired June 16, 2025) with Erik Prince and Erik Bethel discussed the China-Taiwan confrontation, U.S. policy, economic impacts, and regional roles. Below is a concise summary of what was explicitly stated, based on available sources, avoiding speculation or counterviews.

• Taiwan's Critical Role: Taiwan produces 92% of advanced semiconductors via TSMC, and $2.45 trillion in trade transits the Taiwan Strait annually. A Chinese takeover would devastate the global economy by over $1 trillion and threaten U.S. credibility in the Indo-Pacific.
• China's Military Options: China plans a 2027 invasion, with Prince detailing a helicopter-based "decapitation strike" on Taipei due to unsuitable amphibious landing sites. China builds barges for troop transport. A blockade would disrupt trade but hurt China's import-reliant economy (73% oil, 42% gas). China's 300% increase in Taiwan Strait crossings rehearses unification. A2/AD systems, including hypersonic missiles, challenge U.S. forces, but U.S. submarines and fighters deter.
• U.S. Policy Failures: U.S. "strategic ambiguity" on Taiwan's defense deters invasion but strains under tensions. U.S. military readiness is weakened by low sustainment and A2/AD vulnerabilities. Prince urged Taiwan to adopt a "porcupine" defense with anti-ship missiles and mines. Bethel stressed diplomacy to avoid war. Obama's inaction during China's 20132016 South China Sea island-building (3,200 acres, militarized with airstrips and missiles) emboldened Beijing, weakening U.S. deterrence and harming allies like the Philippines.
• Economic and Dollar Risks: A Taiwan takeover would cause a global depression, disrupting chips and shipping. It would erode trust in U.S. security, collapsing the dollar's reserve status, causing devaluation, inflation, and a debt crisis ($33 trillion, 30% foreign-held). China could push the yuan, leveraging Taiwan's tech. De-risking from China is essential.
• Taiwan's Defenses: President Lai Ching-te prepares for cyber, military, and economic coercion with 17 strategies and trade diversification. Taiwan's tech (AI, semiconductors) strengthens its global role.
• Japan, Philippines, South Korea:
  
  • Japan: Close to Taiwan, Japan fears Chinese control, which threatens its security. It boosts defense and hosts U.S. bases, with U.S. missile deployments planned for a Taiwan crisis.
  • Philippines: China harasses Filipino fishermen and militarizes reefs in its EEZ, enabled by Obama's inaction. The Philippines expands U.S. base access and joins the U.S.-Japan-Australia quad, with U.S. missiles planned.
  • South Korea: Focused on North Korea, South Korea avoids direct Taiwan involvement but joins U.S.-Japan trilateral efforts. It seeks more U.S. forces and aligns its semiconductors with U.S. goals.
• Broader Impacts: A takeover would embolden authoritarianism, give China an Indo-Pacific foothold, and destabilize Japan and the Philippines. A dollar collapse would cut U.S. military funding and influence. China's South China Sea actions (e.g., oil rigs, mislabeled bases) escalate tensions. Nuclear or cyber war risks require diplomacy to prevent.

That was an outstanding episode, and also terrifying.

I wrongly posted on a thread where Ryan spoke to the VP of Taiwan, but the topic was the same.

Ryan's guests are generally awesome. The guy who owns Rainmaker was amazing for an interview I thought was going to be either dull or not informational.

In fact, for a 25 year old to have the wisdom h does was impressive.

They touched on the UKE vs Russia war for a split second in this podcast. I said the same thing about the US pivoting towards Russia in a thread and it was not well received. The US needs to be doing a lot more work adding wrinkles to the Russia and China relationship. I am glad I wasn't the only one that thought this.

The entire free world continues to suffer from obama's reign.

fasthorse05 said:

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That was an outstanding episode, and also terrifying.

I wrongly posted on a thread where Ryan spoke to the VP of Taiwan, but the topic was the same.

Ryan's guests are generally awesome. The guy who owns Rainmaker was amazing for an interview I thought was going to be either dull or not informational.

In fact, for a 25 year old to have the wisdom h does was impressive.

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Agreed. As long as he stays away from the remote viewing and UAP kooks. They can be entertaining, but interviews like this are more productive.

fasthorse05 said:

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That was an outstanding episode, and also terrifying.

I wrongly posted on a thread where Ryan spoke to the VP of Taiwan, but the topic was the same.

Ryan's guests are generally awesome. The guy who owns Rainmaker was amazing for an interview I thought was going to be either dull or not informational.

In fact, for a 25 year old to have the wisdom h does was impressive.

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Yes it was outstanding....this is what we need folks focused on, not Iran. What happens with China will decide our future

A short excerpt of the podcast - Erick Bethel..."If I'm not getting screwed over in China, somethings wrong"

• Evolution of China from 2004 forward
• Chery vs Chevy
• Intellectual property theft
• The Great Leap Forward and Institutionalized Immorality
• Infant formula

You would get the exact same characterization from anyone with extensive time dealing with the Chinese

Another short:

Xi's grip on power
Jack Ma and others...disappearances
Social credit system
Surveillance state - facial recognition camera's in excess of 600m, speed monitoring and fines (on some of my trips, I was required to exit my vehicle every 100km, show my papers and be cleared to proceed or not. In one instance on the Tibetan Plateau, I had to back track 170km due to a disturbance on the route I was on. While we were waiting to be released to go back, a dozen PAP vehicles (troops, ZBL-09 type vehicles, etc.) blew past us headed into the county they weren't letting us travel thru. Apparently one of the Llama's had gotten out of control. ).

It just absolutely devastates me more Americans have NO idea how gawd awful Mao was in China.

Folks throw around Hitler like he was the grand champion of murdering, and he was in the top ten, but Mao is the unquestioned champion.

Anyone who can murder 50 to 70 million---of your own citizens in one of the most horrifying ways possible--starvation, deserves to be roundly criticized every day. Stalin is number two.

Of course, few ever mention we have a modern day concentration camp in China with 1 1/2 million. I'm no fan of the Uyghers, but only people like Mao and Stalin deserve to be in one.

For all of the Hitler lovers in America, meaning he's the only one people are aware of, who knows how many Uyghers have been murdered, assaulted, and mistreated. And I guarantee you our white, communist loving, women in America don't know.

fasthorse05 said:

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It just absolutely devastates me more Americans have NO idea how gawd awful Mao was in China.

Folks throw around Hitler like he was the grand champion of murdering, and he was in the top ten, but Mao is the unquestioned champion.

Anyone who can murder 50 to 70 million---of your own citizens in one of the most horrifying ways possible--starvation, deserves to be roundly criticized every day. Stalin is number two.

Of course, few ever mention we have a modern day concentration camp in China with 1 1/2 million. I'm no fan of the Uyghers, but only people like Mao and Stalin deserve to be in one.

For all of the Hitler lovers in America, meaning he's the only one people are aware of, who knows how many Uyghers have been murdered, assaulted, and mistreated. And I guarantee you our white, communist loving, women in America don't know.

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Excellent post

fasthorse05 said:

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It just absolutely devastates me more Americans have NO idea how gawd awful Mao was in China.

Folks throw around Hitler like he was the grand champion of murdering, and he was in the top ten, but Mao is the unquestioned champion.

Anyone who can murder 50 to 70 million---of your own citizens in one of the most horrifying ways possible--starvation, deserves to be roundly criticized every day. Stalin is number two.

Of course, few ever mention we have a modern day concentration camp in China with 1 1/2 million. I'm no fan of the Uyghers, but only people like Mao and Stalin deserve to be in one.

For all of the Hitler lovers in America, meaning he's the only one people are aware of, who knows how many Uyghers have been murdered, assaulted, and mistreated. And I guarantee you our white, communist loving, women in America don't know.

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YES!

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And I guarantee you our white, communist loving, women in America don't know.

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I wonder who has done more damage to our country. Obama or white college educated women who are communist useful idiots ??
I don't have an answer. I am curious which way the board leans!!

There's a lot of fear mongering going on there. America can park a few destroyers thousands of miles away from Chinese waters and within six months induce a famine that kills a hundred million people in China. We can single handedly collapse their civilization without firing a shot. And they know this.

Their society is already in the midst of a demographic collapse. They aren't going to hasten the process with a futile move on Taiwan.

fasthorse05 said:

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It just absolutely devastates me more Americans have NO idea how gawd awful Mao was in China.

Folks throw around Hitler like he was the grand champion of murdering, and he was in the top ten, but Mao is the unquestioned champion.

Anyone who can murder 50 to 70 million---of your own citizens in one of the most horrifying ways possible--starvation, deserves to be roundly criticized every day. Stalin is number two.

Of course, few ever mention we have a modern day concentration camp in China with 1 1/2 million. I'm no fan of the Uyghers, but only people like Mao and Stalin deserve to be in one.

For all of the Hitler lovers in America, meaning he's the only one people are aware of, who knows how many Uyghers have been murdered, assaulted, and mistreated. And I guarantee you our white, communist loving, women in America don't know.

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Mao is high up in the hierarchy of human evil, but what separates him from the Nazis is the intentional mechanistic nature of the deaths.

The vast majority of the deaths that Mao is responsible for were through starvation via terrible, misguided Marxist ideology. The Nazis developed a finely tuned and weaponized version of mass execution never before seen before or since and intentionally murdered the majority of their victims. Mao's body count is higher merely due to circumstance, but the Nazis were far more intentional in their evil.

Also there's the reality that, for better or worse, 1930s-1940s Germany is view as a civilized christian society and China at the time is viewed as largely rural backwater savages. It's just more shocking to our senses that arguably the most advanced civilization in the world at the time was capable of that as opposed to a bunch of fed up rice farmers who revolted and killed a bunch of people because they couldn't math.

Like I said previously, I predict Xi will be gone before summer is out. Hopefully somebody who doesn't want to destroy their country to invade Taiwan will win the free-for-all currently happening behind the scenes to replace him. Hopefully if that occurs, this will all be a moot point.

EX TEXASEX said:

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Like I said previously, I predict Xi will be gone before summer is out. Hopefully somebody who doesn't want to destroy their country to invade Taiwan will win the free-for-all currently happening behind the scenes to replace him. Hopefully if that occurs, this will all be a moot point.

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This would be a world-changing event then. I just don't think it's in their DNA to give in though.

fasthorse05 said:

---

It just absolutely devastates me more Americans have NO idea how gawd awful Mao was in China.

Folks throw around Hitler like he was the grand champion of murdering, and he was in the top ten, but Mao is the unquestioned champion.

Anyone who can murder 50 to 70 million---of your own citizens in one of the most horrifying ways possible--starvation, deserves to be roundly criticized every day. Stalin is number two.

Of course, few ever mention we have a modern day concentration camp in China with 1 1/2 million. I'm no fan of the Uyghers, but only people like Mao and Stalin deserve to be in one.

For all of the Hitler lovers in America, meaning he's the only one people are aware of, who knows how many Uyghers have been murdered, assaulted, and mistreated. And I guarantee you our white, communist loving, women in America don't know.

---

We always hear more about Hitler because supposedly the Nazi movement was "right wing" (it was not). But Mao and Stalin were straight up communists and represent the end result of unfettered communism. The media, academia, Hollywood, etc has no interest in educating people of this fact.

fasthorse05 said:

---

That was an outstanding episode, and also terrifying.

I wrongly posted on a thread where Ryan spoke to the VP of Taiwan, but the topic was the same.

Ryan's guests are generally awesome. The guy who owns Rainmaker was amazing for an interview I thought was going to be either dull or not informational.

In fact, for a 25 year old to have the wisdom h does was impressive.

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The Rainmaker founder was so impressive for a 25 year old. Such wisdom and ability to communicate at a young age. He reminds me of a young Elon Musk. Everyone should give it a listen.

EX TEXASEX said:

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Like I said previously, I predict Xi will be gone before summer is out. Hopefully somebody who doesn't want to destroy their country to invade Taiwan will win the free-for-all currently happening behind the scenes to replace him. Hopefully if that occurs, this will all be a moot point.

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Highly unlikely. One thing the Chinese fear above all else is chaos; internal disorder; much more than any external threat (luan is the Chinese term). A sudden, unplanned changed is very low on the realistic scenarios that could occur in China.

Hard to see a scenario where prior to 2027 he faces a real threat. His hold is secure and likely to go through at least 2030 (he'll be 77 at that time and they have to have a plan at that point. He has consolidated control over the CCP (Electronic "Party" billboards are on remote mountainsides all over the country real time stream platitudes extolling the benefits of the Party), military, and state through his loyalty-based appointments, ideological enforcement, and surveillance. All the things that used to seem fanciful in movies regarding the ability to see everyone, all the time, and intercede in their lives; is actually happening in China real time. And, there are really no internal challengers.

A few years of high youth unemployment could take it's toll; but for the masses; and anyone over 50, it's still a pretty good situation. Xi is seen as the indispensable leader who restored China's strength and unity; and unity is paramount.

One last anecdote; the China experts always put a lot of stock in the younger educated class adopting Western values and overthrowing the CCP (yes, the same old Democracy Nation building bull****). I was having a discussion over beers one afternoon with a group of 30/40 somethings on various topics and I threw out Tiananmen Square. The unanimous POV was; tough decision; absolutely had to happen. Fear of disorder far outweighs freedom concerns. Anyone over 40 remembers food insecurity.

Bingo!

After quite a bit of reading about their political culture, I've come to the same conclusion. I would assume Tianenmen Square just completely terrified the commie party 35 years ago.

Yes, they play the long game, and find value in western democracies with little to no backbone so they can continue to confiscate land. But they're main goal every day is to keep the natives in place and happy, or at least terrified of speaking out since social credit penalizes everyone for every single legal mishap, and does it quickly.

Oh, "food insecurity" takes on such a new meaning in that country. I know what you meant, but Mao should always be considered one of the leading sociopaths in world history.

Speaking of food, I assume you know the Chinese pay most of the central America countries tons of cash to fish with abandon on the Pacific side? They just drag the net, catch everything, throw nothing back, and follow their own rules.

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Highly unlikely. One thing the Chinese fear above all else is chaos; internal disorder; much more than any external threat (luan is the Chinese term)

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Could I be wrong about Xi being gone in the next 2 months? Yes. This is my opinion after reading and watching sources I have come to trust over the years. I feel confident to make this public prediction. I feel very strongly this is going to happen. Again, I could have egg on my face come Sept. 1st. One thing is for sure. We will know either way in the coming months who is right and who is wrong!!! May the best opinion win

Respectively, I disagree. I agree about order and harmony, and the CCP doesn't want any changes or anything they can't control. However, Xi's rule since 2013 has been chaos and lack of order. After Mao destroyed the country with a cult of personality/one-man rule during the Cultural Revolution. They went to collective leadership to avoid this from ever happening again. What did Xi do? Immediately started a purge against everybody else with his anti-corruption campaign, going after millions of party members in the last 10 years, as he says, "Both tigers and flies." which means nobody is safe from the faux anti-corruption campaign.

Last year, Xihad former premier Li Keqiang, WHO HAS JUST RETIRED, murdered. Which went against their rule of not going after people when they retire and drop out of politics. Lately Xi has not shown up at functions he should have, and Xinhua and People's Daily have stopped mentioning him FOR WEEKS. That NEVER happens unless you are losing power. Some of his allies have been executed lately. He has burned to many people in power. Destroyed too many ccp members lives and made too many emenies. When EVERYBODY is your enemy, who is left to be your ally ? We have reached that point with Xi

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A few years of high youth unemployment could take it's toll; but for the masses; and anyone over 50, it's still a pretty good

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That is not true . two things with age in china. if you are women and over 30 you are a " Left over women " no man wants once you hit 30. you chances of getting married drop by 99% and if you are a male and loose your job after age 35 nobody wants to hire. you are unemployable at this poiint. Remeber age discrimination in china is perfectly legal.


There is so much more I want to say, but I am at work and I have no time to give you a proper response.


There are so many sources to choose from to make my case, but I really trust her. Always fantastic analysis.

I absolutely hate it when I see things I want, or need, to watch/listen, but don't have time like right now.

ts5641 said:

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We always hear more about Hitler because supposedly the Nazi movement was "right wing" (it was not). But Mao and Stalin were straight up communists and represent the end result of unfettered communism. The media, academia, Hollywood, etc has no interest in educating people of this fact.

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Hitler and the Nazi Party, followed by Benito Mussolini and Italy's National Fascist Party, were the absolute extreme "right" of the political spectrum. In contrast, Stalin's Communist regime represented the absolute extreme "left". This is why the two sides were hostile toward each other.

To put it simply. Right wing ideologies promote inequality, while Left Wing ideologies promote equality.

The Nazis believed in a strict social hierarchy. They thought some races were better than others, with the "Aryan" race at the top. They believed in keeping the class system, and they didn't support equality. They wanted a powerful national identity, control over the population, and no tolerance for opposition.

On the contrary, the Communist Party under Stalin, was about getting rid of social classes and creating an absolute equal society by eliminating private property and capitalism. You as a citizen are no better or no worse in any way than your neighbor. Of course, Stalin's regime was brutal and authoritarian too, but the core ideas behind communism are very different from what the Nazis stood for.

Saying the Nazis weren't "right wing" just because the media, Hollywood, etc. is trying to take a shot at Trump and Republicans just isn't accurate.

She is very smart with an analytical mind. She really researches her topics. I would bookmark her as a go-to source if you have a topic you are interested in regarding China. She is a native Chinese so goes to the direct source material in China for research. Although she can never set foot in China or HK again.

I stopped watching at "Ju Jintao" is really calling all the shots for a myriad of reasons. He's been seen one time (a funeral attendance) in 3 years since Xi had him publicly humiliated and removed from the Peoples Congress session. Most of his protege's have likewise disappeared, or are suspected to be under confinement.

About the only thing I know for sure is we're both wrong on our timeline or assumptions. But given his "disappearance" and the fact that he's 83 and frail at his last sightings, Ju is not calling the shots.

EX TEXASEX said:

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She is very smart with an analytical mind. She really researches her topics. I would bookmark her as a go-to source if you have a topic you are interested in regarding China. She is a native Chinese so goes to the direct source material in China for research. Although she can never set foot in China or HK again.

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I just sat down to ask you that question.

I don't mind listening to someone to make up my own mind, but when I can ask someone who I have a certain amount of respect for, it's a hell of a lot easier to choose to take two hours out of your day.

Gracias!

Speaking of China lovers, ever since two of their elected officials were shot, with one murdered, good ole Mr. Minnesota has been pretty damned quiet in the last two weeks. It's a shame it took a calamity that big to get him to shut the hell up.

But man, what a relief.