This is a fascinating piece that touches on everything from AI to immigration, and how businesses are dealing with the biggest tech change since the PC was invented.
The American worker is getting more done. That's great for the economy, not always for workers.
The American worker is getting more done. That's great for the economy, not always for workers.
^^^I've heard very similar reports from law firms and computer engineers. What would take hours, days, or weeks, now takes minutes with the advent of AI.Quote:
Take Vic Viktorov, a gym owner who increased revenue at his Boston business in 2024 by 30% without adding a single salesperson to the two already on staff. Instead, he has been using an artificial-intelligence model loaded with company documents, sales materials and other information. Now, he can complete in just minutes work that used to take hours, such as writing marketing plans, email drafts and social-media posts.
"It allows us to be lean, nimble and fast," said Viktorov.
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Productivitythe total output of the economy divided by hours workedrose 2% in the third quarter compared with a year earlier, according to the Labor Department. That marked the fifth quarter in a row with an increase of 2% or better. In the five years before the pandemic, there were only two such quarters.
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Another big change in the American labor forcea massive influx of immigrationmight also have played a role. Immigrants are often slotted into manual-intensive jobs, which could allow other workers to move up to more highly skilled jobs.
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Of course, increased productivity isn't always good news for workers: One way that companies get more productive is by laying off employees. New technologies such as AI can create new jobs and make workers more efficientor take their jobs.
^^^But there is always a political angle.Quote:
The recent dockworkers strike was fueled in part by port employers' desire to expand the use of automated machinery on docks. President-elect Donald Trump threw his support behind the dockworkers, saying in December that automation threatened jobs.
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America's scope for expanding its labor force is limited: The population is increasing slowly, the baby-boom generation is retiring, and Trump has promised to heavily restrict immigration and deport millions of immigrant workers who are already in the U.S. Stronger productivity would help bolster the economy and support an aging population.
^^^It's gonna be super exciting to see where we are in 10 years whenAI really hits the ground running.Quote:
First, when there are new opportunities for innovation, as with cars a hundred years ago or computers in the 1980s and 1990s, new businesses proliferate. Second, new businesses are quicker to adopt new technologies. That can allow them to hire fewer workers to get things done.
"They're more likely to do radical things," Haltiwanger said. "They don't have anything to lose, so to speak."
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"If I can save an hour, two hours a day by speeding up these tasks, it makes me much more efficient," said Viktorov, whose gym is a Boston-area franchise of Tennessee-based D1 Training.
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It takes time, though, for a successful technology to be used widely enough and effectively enough for it to show up. So while ChatGPT and other GenAI tools are garnering lots of attention, and some businesses are using them, they are probably too new to move the needle on productivity across the economy yet, said Harvard University economist David Deming.
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Raj Karanam took over Architectural Surfaces, which distributes stone and other materials for homes, five months ago. In that short time, he has reduced product shortages 95%, largely by using advanced analytics and AI to manage inventory.
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In the past, he said, a showroom in Denver might need a slab of quartzite that is in stock in Austin, Texas. Dozens of emails would go back and forth to approve and initiate a transfer. Now, he said, all of that happens automatically.
