So says one of the VERY few good pollsters out there, Rich Baris:

If Ron DeSantis was the nominee, Republicans would've lost this election.

If Nikki Haley was the nominee, Republicans would've lost this election.

Donald Trump won this election. Not Republicans.

They appear to be learning nothing.

Abosolutely, nothing.

— Rich Baris The People's Pundit (@Peoples_Pundit) November 22, 2024

ETA - Dammit, meant to say DeSantis, not Biden.
Also, Mark Mitchell, one of the other few good pollsters, also agrees with him.

Ok

How can you be certain of this outcome?

Data to back it up? I don't believe Desantis would have lost.

Haley? Maybe so.

Can we just stop the Trump v. DeSantis feud? Yes - they both wanted the same job. Yes - they both said/did things that I wish they wouldn't have. No - none of it was worthy of creating a rift in the tent over.

Trump carried Florida. The vast majority of whom supported DeSantis for governor.

This spat needs to die.

bobbranco said:

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How can you be certain of this outcome?

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You can't obviously but I think it's telling that two of the best pollsters around both think only Trump would have won this election. I agree with them, especially if Haley was the nominee.

Yes, DeSantis would have crushed Kamala at the debate but so what, debates don't move the needle. Millions likely would have stayed home for Ron and yes, a lot of never Trumpers would have stayed home too but I think the former far outweighed the latter.

Lifts wasn't beating Heels

Interestingly, if Biden hadn't been set up to fail in the debate, and had dumped Kamala and put Haley on as his VP for re-election, I think it coulda been a much closer election. And I think Nikki absolutely woulda joined if offered that slot.

And the Trumpers just can't let go of their hated for DeSantis, all because he dared to run against their god king.

And no one can say with certainty how the election would have turned out if it had been different candidates. They can only guess.

bobbranco said:

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How can you be certain of this outcome?

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Exit polling and canvassing of confirmed voters, that's how Baris can say that.

Remember, the Trump campaign and third parties supporting the GOTV efforts in the battleground states were targeting low to no propensity voters. Baris did the follow up with them asking about would they have registered and voted if DeSantis or Haley been the nominee.

That's rich, coming from the one poster who's also butthurt over all things Trump- LOL!!!!!!!

LOL!!!!!

nortex97 said:

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Interestingly, if Biden hadn't been set up to fail in the debate, and had dumped Kamala and put Haley on as his VP for re-election, I think it coulda been a much closer election. And I think Nikki absolutely woulda joined if offered that slot.

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And then have invoked the 25th against Biden the afternoon he was inaugurated?

Nah, just like their polling was wrong, this is wrong. Dem policies are and have been horrible and people are tired of it. Any Republican would have won.

aggiehawg said:

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bobbranco said:

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How can you be certain of this outcome?

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Exit polling and canvassing of confirmed voters, that's how Baris can say that.

Remember, the Trump campaign and third parties supporting the GOTV efforts in the battleground states were targeting low to no propensity voters. Baris did the follow up with them asking about would they have registered and voted if DeSantis or Haley been the nominee.

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Even that is sketchy. There is so much recency bias in a "what if someone who hasn't been right in front of us for 6 months was the nominee", that it doesn't make much sense in even asking.

Phatbob said:

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aggiehawg said:

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bobbranco said:

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How can you be certain of this outcome?

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Exit polling and canvassing of confirmed voters, that's how Baris can say that.

Remember, the Trump campaign and third parties supporting the GOTV efforts in the battleground states were targeting low to no propensity voters. Baris did the follow up with them asking about would they have registered and voted if DeSantis or Haley been the nominee.

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Even that is sketchy. There is so much recency bias in a "what if someone who hasn't been right in front of us for 6 months was the nominee", that it doesn't make much sense in even asking.

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Disagree with his methodology all you want but he was right about the results in the battleground states and was talking about the low propensity voters the entire time.

This is copium.

Because if this is true, the democrats don't have to soul search their own party. It was some fluke they lost.

aggiehawg said:

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Phatbob said:

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aggiehawg said:

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bobbranco said:

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How can you be certain of this outcome?

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Exit polling and canvassing of confirmed voters, that's how Baris can say that.

Remember, the Trump campaign and third parties supporting the GOTV efforts in the battleground states were targeting low to no propensity voters. Baris did the follow up with them asking about would they have registered and voted if DeSantis or Haley been the nominee.

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Even that is sketchy. There is so much recency bias in a "what if someone who hasn't been right in front of us for 6 months was the nominee", that it doesn't make much sense in even asking.

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Disagree with his methodology all you want but he was right about the results in the battleground states and was talking about the low propensity voters the entire time.

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It's one thing to ask people how they think they will vote right now. It's a whole other thing to ask "how would you have voted if the world was completely different"

Prosperdick said:

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So says one of the VERY few good pollsters out there, Rich Baris:

If Ron DeSantis was the nominee, Republicans would've lost this election.

If Nikki Haley was the nominee, Republicans would've lost this election.

Donald Trump won this election. Not Republicans.

They appear to be learning nothing.

Abosolutely, nothing.

— Rich Baris The People's Pundit (@Peoples_Pundit) November 22, 2024

ETA - Dammit, meant to say DeSantis, not Biden.
Also, Mark Mitchell, one of the other few good pollsters, also agrees with him.

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Life Truth : One person's opinion is not fact.

Phatbob said:

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aggiehawg said:

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Phatbob said:

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aggiehawg said:

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bobbranco said:

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How can you be certain of this outcome?

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Exit polling and canvassing of confirmed voters, that's how Baris can say that.

Remember, the Trump campaign and third parties supporting the GOTV efforts in the battleground states were targeting low to no propensity voters. Baris did the follow up with them asking about would they have registered and voted if DeSantis or Haley been the nominee.

---

Even that is sketchy. There is so much recency bias in a "what if someone who hasn't been right in front of us for 6 months was the nominee", that it doesn't make much sense in even asking.

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Disagree with his methodology all you want but he was right about the results in the battleground states and was talking about the low propensity voters the entire time.

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It's one thing to ask people how they think they will vote right now. It's a whole other thing to ask "how would you have voted if the world was completely different"

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Have you watched Baris' podcasts at the People's Pundit through the last months of the election cycle? Because he explained it very clearly.

aggiehawg said:

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Phatbob said:

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aggiehawg said:

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Phatbob said:

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aggiehawg said:

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bobbranco said:

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How can you be certain of this outcome?

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Exit polling and canvassing of confirmed voters, that's how Baris can say that.

Remember, the Trump campaign and third parties supporting the GOTV efforts in the battleground states were targeting low to no propensity voters. Baris did the follow up with them asking about would they have registered and voted if DeSantis or Haley been the nominee.

---

Even that is sketchy. There is so much recency bias in a "what if someone who hasn't been right in front of us for 6 months was the nominee", that it doesn't make much sense in even asking.

---

Disagree with his methodology all you want but he was right about the results in the battleground states and was talking about the low propensity voters the entire time.

---

It's one thing to ask people how they think they will vote right now. It's a whole other thing to ask "how would you have voted if the world was completely different"

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Have you watched Baris' podcasts at the People's Pundit through the last months of the election cycle? Because he explained it very clearly.

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Trump's path was never going to be any other person's path. Just because that is how Trump pulled his win together does not mean that is how anyone else would have. It is also impossible to say what would or would not have happened given 6 months of a campaign and world events.

Also, even if it were true that only Trump could have won (don't agree at all), then what does that do for the Republican party? If the best we have is now a lame duck... no one else could have beaten the worst presidential candidate in generations in the middle of their own recession? Then we are done as a party. I'm sorry, but I don't buy that at all.

aggiehawg said:

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nortex97 said:

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Interestingly, if Biden hadn't been set up to fail in the debate, and had dumped Kamala and put Haley on as his VP for re-election, I think it coulda been a much closer election. And I think Nikki absolutely woulda joined if offered that slot.

---

And then have invoked the 25th against Biden the afternoon he was inaugurated?

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I think she'd have waited a year. A shift toward fiscal focus (inflation) and border security with her as well on the ticket as a 'national security' (puke, but that's what she brands herself as) expert would have made the rust belt, NC (she's from SC) and NV much more competitive.

Kamala flamed out on the youth vote but I do think she'd have helped them perform better there, plus it wouldn't have been 'no policy differences I can think of' but rather her talking about a shift in focus/direction (Biden woulda still been in the basement anyway).

I love DeSantis. I think he's proven to be one of the very best governors ever and I would vote for him in a heartbeat, but Rich is 100% spot on.

We're eight years into major political realignment.

The coalitions (and demographics) that made GOP presidential candidates like George Bush 43, Bob Dole, George Bush 45, John McCain, Mitt Romney, and everyone other candidate since Reagan not named Trump "competitive" no longer exists.

At the presidential level any Republican that is still too closely associated (fairly or unfairly) with the GOP establishment, RINOs, foreign policy neoconservatives, pro-big business Wall Street/Chamber of Commerce types, or even just normal looking (1988 - present) mainstream conservativism cannot win in the Rust Belt (except Ohio, sometimes), any of the northern swing states, or Nevada... and would get slaughtered in the other northern states that swung heavily for Trump in 2024 (that he still lost).

Moving forward, any candidate that is not sincerely enough and sufficiently "Trumpy" (MAGA/America First) will get absolutely slaughtered in a national election (will be capped out at about a 268 maximum Electoral Vote potential).

Trump, on the other hand, has forged a larger, more diverse, and more nationwide MAGA/America First coalition for future Republican candidates to tap in to, but only if that future GOP presidential candidate can successfully convince the voters that he/she is as opposed to the toxic brand of post-Reagan "Republicanism" as Trump is. These voters, who have been lost to us since 1992 when Ross Perot courted them (or in the case of Hispanic voters have never been ours), have so far proven that they will come out to vote for Trump, but not, for the most part, other Republicans yet.

Over the next four years, therefore, our principle task as a party from a branding standpoint is to PROVE to the voters that we have sufficiently and finally broken away completely from the kind of Republicanism that still dominates in the US Senate.

Getting back to DeSantis... the people who ran his presidential campaign, the donors who supported it, and their messaging severely damaged his image with these new Republican-leaning voters. Regardless of how he has governed (which has been awesomely IMO), DeSantis became (unfairly IMO) associated in their minds with mainstream/establishment Republicanism which they loathe.

doubledog said:

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Prosperdick said:

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So says one of the VERY few good pollsters out there, Rich Baris:

If Ron DeSantis was the nominee, Republicans would've lost this election.

If Nikki Haley was the nominee, Republicans would've lost this election.

Donald Trump won this election. Not Republicans.

They appear to be learning nothing.

Abosolutely, nothing.

— Rich Baris The People's Pundit (@Peoples_Pundit) November 22, 2024

ETA - Dammit, meant to say DeSantis, not Biden.
Also, Mark Mitchell, one of the other few good pollsters, also agrees with him.

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Life Truth : One person's opinion is not fact.

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No **** Sherlock, where did I say it was a fact. I just pointed out that two of the most accurate pollsters, who have talked with THOUSANDS of voters across the swing states are stating this as their well informed opinion.

I also like DeSantis and think he's done a terrific job with Florida.

Prosperdick said:

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bobbranco said:

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How can you be certain of this outcome?

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You can't obviously but I think it's telling that two of the best pollsters around both think only Trump would have won this election. I agree with them, especially if Haley was the nominee.

Yes, DeSantis would have crushed Kamala at the debate but so what, debates don't move the needle. Millions likely would have stayed home for Ron and yes, a lot of never Trumpers would have stayed home too but I think the former far outweighed the latter.

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Trump vs Biden debate would like a word.

There's so much supporting data in the OP it's hard not to agree…

Quote:

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Taking a page from the successful ground game playbook in Florida's successful 2022 elections, American Majority Action (AMA) developed and launched a blanketing ballot-chasing initiative in four swing states Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and Wisconsin. The conservative grassroots nonprofit targeted low-to-moderate propensity voters, conservatives who rarely or never vote in elections, encouraging and cajoling them to not only to vote, but to vote early.

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Quote:

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Through millions of contacts and sustained relationship building, AMA helped cut the massive absentee ballot/early voting surpluses Democrats and leftist activists have built up in past elections cycles in Wisconsin, while giving Republicans a decided ballot advantage heading into Election Day in Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina.

In the end, former President Donald Trump won all seven battleground states, reversing narrow losses suffered in 2020 in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. And the GOP presidential nominee won North Carolina by more than 3 percentage points, more than doubling his margin of victory from 2020. While the Republican Senate candidates in Arizona, Nevada, and Wisconsin didn't come out victorious, the data show that in Wisconsin in particular challenger Eric Hovde benefited from a boost in lower-participation conservative voters. The Madison Republican businessman came within less than 30,000 votes of beating far-left incumbent Sen. Tammy Baldwin in what turned out by far to be Baldwin's narrowest election victory.

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Quote:

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After picking himself up off the floor in the red wave-less midterm elections, American Majority CEO Ned Ryun said he had an epiphany. He said he wished he would have had said epiphany early in 2022 when it might have helped salvage a disappointing election cycle, but better late than never.

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Quote:

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"We need to export the Florida GOP's absentee-ballot chase program into these key battleground states in 2024," Ryun told The Federalist in late September.

Once a critical swing state, Florida is now a reliable red. The great exodus of Americans from lockdown states to free state Florida during Covid may explain some of the political shift in recent years. There are a number of drivers, but the fact remains that this election cycle registered Republicans outpaced registered Democrats for the first time in Sunshine State history.

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More at the LINK

Baris explains more today.

aggiehawg said:

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bobbranco said:

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How can you be certain of this outcome?

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Exit polling and canvassing of confirmed voters, that's how Baris can say that.

Remember, the Trump campaign and third parties supporting the GOTV efforts in the battleground states were targeting low to no propensity voters. Baris did the follow up with them asking about would they have registered and voted if DeSantis or Haley been the nominee.

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Not going to spend a bunch of time on this but without the Trump assassination attempts the Democrats probably could have won the Presidency. We all dodged that bullet. Thank God. Can't wait for DeSantis to continue with national politics. He has a bright future.

1836er said:

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I love DeSantis. I think he's proven to be one of the very best governors ever and I would vote for him in a heartbeat, but Rich is 100% spot on.

We're eight years into major political realignment.

The coalitions (and demographics) that made GOP presidential candidates like George Bush 43, Bob Dole, George Bush 45, John McCain, Mitt Romney, and everyone other candidate since Reagan not named Trump "competitive" no longer exists.

At the presidential level any Republican that is still too closely associated (fairly or unfairly) with the GOP establishment, RINOs, foreign policy neoconservatives, pro-big business Wall Street/Chamber of Commerce types, or even just normal looking (1988 - present) mainstream conservativism cannot win in the Rust Belt (except Ohio, sometimes), any of the northern swing states, or Nevada... and would get slaughtered in the other northern states that swung heavily for Trump in 2024 (that he still lost).

Moving forward, any candidate that is not sincerely enough and sufficiently "Trumpy" (MAGA/America First) will get absolutely slaughtered in a national election (will be capped out at about a 268 maximum Electoral Vote potential).

Trump, on the other hand, has forged a larger, more diverse, and more nationwide MAGA/America First coalition for future Republican candidates to tap in to, but only if that future GOP presidential candidate can successfully convince the voters that he/she is as opposed to the toxic brand of post-Reagan "Republicanism" as Trump is. These voters, who have been lost to us since 1992 when Ross Perot courted them (or in the case of Hispanic voters have never been ours), have so far proven that they will come out to vote for Trump, but not, for the most part, other Republicans yet.

Over the next four years, therefore, our principle task as a party from a branding standpoint is to PROVE to the voters that we have sufficiently and finally broken away completely from the kind of Republicanism that still dominates in the US Senate.

Getting back to DeSantis... the people who ran his presidential campaign, the donors who supported it, and their messaging severely damaged his image with these new Republican-leaning voters. Regardless of how he has governed (which has been awesomely IMO), DeSantis became (unfairly IMO) associated in their minds with mainstream/establishment Republicanism which they loathe.

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Desantis became associated with mainstream establishment Republicanism in this campaign because that's exactly what Trump's team wanted everybody to think, and that's how they painted him. Remember that Trump's first enemy in this campaign was Desantis, and Trump and his campaign (including his surrogate candidate Ramaswamy) went after Desantis hard. Harder than they went after any other primary candidate including Haley. Hell, they basically ignored Haley until Desantis was out of the contest.

And to pretend like the current end result we got is any sort of indication of what would have happened if Trump had chosen not to run, and instead perhaps endorsed the next closest MAGA-candidate Desantis, is absurdly laughable, lol.

Prosperdick said:

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doubledog said:

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Prosperdick said:

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So says one of the VERY few good pollsters out there, Rich Baris:

If Ron DeSantis was the nominee, Republicans would've lost this election.

If Nikki Haley was the nominee, Republicans would've lost this election.

Donald Trump won this election. Not Republicans.

They appear to be learning nothing.

Abosolutely, nothing.

— Rich Baris The People's Pundit (@Peoples_Pundit) November 22, 2024

ETA - Dammit, meant to say DeSantis, not Biden.
Also, Mark Mitchell, one of the other few good pollsters, also agrees with him.

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Life Truth : One person's opinion is not fact.

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No **** Sherlock, where did I say it was a fact. I just pointed out that two of the most accurate pollsters, who have talked with THOUSANDS of voters across the swing states are stating this as their well informed opinion.

I also like DeSantis and think he's done a terrific job with Florida.

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Your Title :

Quote:

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Biden DeSantis and Haley both would have lost to Kamala

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Can't speculate if anyone else on the Reblican ticket would have beaten either Biden or Harris.

What we DO KNOW WITH 100% CERTAINTY is the Democrat party helped Trump win FAR MORE than the Republican party. The lawfare, assassination attempts, and constant and obvious gaslighting by the Democrat party energized a lot of voters to pull the lever for Trump. Trump did a fantastic job using their tactics against them.

BTKAG97 said:

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Can't speculate if anyone else on the Reblican ticket would have beaten either Biden or Harris.

What we DO KNOW WITH 100% CERTAINTY is the Democrat party helped Trump win FAR MORE than the Republican party. The lawfare, assassination attempts, and constant and obvious gaslighting by the Democrat party energized a lot of voters to pull the lever for Trump. Trump did a fantastic job using their tactics against them.

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Trump routinely out performed down ballot Republicans in the swing states. And he had coattails to pull several across the finish line.

Does anyone really believe that Haley or DeSantis would have out perfomed down ballot races at those margins? Have definite coattails? Just not seeing it.

aggiehawg said:

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BTKAG97 said:

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Can't speculate if anyone else on the Reblican ticket would have beaten either Biden or Harris.

What we DO KNOW WITH 100% CERTAINTY is the Democrat party helped Trump win FAR MORE than the Republican party. The lawfare, assassination attempts, and constant and obvious gaslighting by the Democrat party energized a lot of voters to pull the lever for Trump. Trump did a fantastic job using their tactics against them.

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Trump routinely out performed down ballot Republicans in the swing states. And he had coattails to pull several across the finish line.

Does anyone really believe that Haley or DeSantis would have out perfomed down ballot races at those margins? Have definite coattails? Just not seeing it.

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I believe Trump would have received somewhere between 71-74 million votes if not for the Democrat party and their antics instead of the near 77 million he got. I don't believe anyone else on the Repblican ticket would have gotten 77 million.

With that said, yes, I do believe this also helped political free-riding (using an economic term) for down ballot positions for the Senate. Its hard to say Trump's presence helped the House give how narrow the total count finished.

These hypotheticals are stupid.

If Desantis was the nom and got shot in the ear, he prob would have won by as much or more. All who voted for Trump would have voted for Desantis, plus many never Trumpers.

What seperated Trump from Desantis was courting libertarians and bitcoiners. IF Desantis wouldn't have done that, than you may see Trump getting more votes.

Quote:

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With that said, yes, I do believe this also helped political free-riding (using an economic term) for down ballot positions for the Senate. Its hard to say Trump's presence helped the House give how narrow the total count finished.

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House races are harder due to gerrymandering of those districts and the Census screw up. That's not going away anytime soon either, unfortunately.

Rapier108 said:

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And the Trumpers just can't let go of their hated for DeSantis, all because he dared to run against their god king.

And no one can say with certainty how the election would have turned out if it had been different candidates. They can only guess.

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The only hatred we hear constantly on this forum is your hatred for Trump, the Concept of MAGA and Trump supporters......

You are so out of touch with reality!