https://www.bovada.lv/sports/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2024

EVEN.

Was watching the Sean Spicer YouTube channel today.(he's great by the way) and he had a GOP strategist on.

He was sworn to secrecy on the internal polling, but seemed pretty confident in a Trump plus Senate win.

When he was asked about the House, the guy hesitated and started talking about how much money the Democrats were spending compared to the GOP in some swing districts.

That's the tone right now, for what It's worth.

GOPs money problems and infighting between Trumplicans and Blue Blood Republicans at the state level was always going to be a problem for holding the house.

GOP was unable to create the house races as a cohesive national election.

I will be pleasantly surprised if the GOP ends with all three. Still a strong shot they end with a stronger than expected Senate and that's it.

policywonk98 said:

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GOPs money problems and infighting between Trumplicans and Blue Blood Republicans at the state level was always going to be a problem for holding the house.

GOP was unable to create the house races as a cohesive national election.

I will be pleasantly surprised if the GOP ends with all three. Still a strong shot they end with a stronger than expected Senate and that's it.

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You think there's a strong shot that Trump loses?

Still do not understand why betting sites are seen as credible.

Because instead of pollsters getting paid for supplying data regardless if it's wrong or not betters get money by being right.

Where in this thread did anyone say they were? He is pointing out where to get the best odds

I have seen people say they are going to emotional hedge. For those that are here is probably your best one (I'm not an emotional hedge guy just giving advice)

Let's say you are going to bet $310 on Kamala at +170. Win is roughly $527. She loses you lose it all.


For her to win it looks like she has to sweep WI, MI, and PA most likely path. You could bet she does it's also +170 this is terrible odds should be about 8.5-1


You could do the following
$100 on PA at +130. Win is $130
$100 on WI at +120. Win is $120
$110 on MI at -110. Win is $100

Maximum win $350
Maximum loss $310

Here is what makes it better bet she could win MI and lose the other two and you are only out $100 (Trump is president)
She could win MI and WI and lose PA (Trump is president and you win $130
There is also a scenario a really slight one where she wins all three and Trump still is president. Highly unlikely but never know.

No offense but here I thought I was a massive degenerate.

So even if we win the presidency and the Senate, if we lose the house we're talking non-stop investigations and impeachment hearings of Trump. Gov't will be at a standstill.

I'm slightly optimistic that the Democrats realize that the constant attacks against Trump have backfired on them.

But then again, we are talking about Democrats and how they are the party of emotion and psychosis.

Jack Boyette said:

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policywonk98 said:

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GOPs money problems and infighting between Trumplicans and Blue Blood Republicans at the state level was always going to be a problem for holding the house.

GOP was unable to create the house races as a cohesive national election.

I will be pleasantly surprised if the GOP ends with all three. Still a strong shot they end with a stronger than expected Senate and that's it.

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You think there's a strong shot that Trump loses?

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My wording there may have been a little too loose. If Trump polling trends hold up and translate in the GOTV, than it will be a comfortable EC margin of victory for him. I was not suggesting that is not a strong likelihood. I was simply saying there is a strong shot that the GOP has a better night in the Senate than expected but still loses the presidency. I would put money on Moreno pulling out victory in Ohio and Senate GOP being 52 before I would put money on a Trump victory.

The way the polls have bounced around inside the MoE tells me this race is still razor thin in the states that can cause this to go either way just like in 2000, 2016, and 2020. When it comes to GOTV the Democrats have the ability to turn non voters into voters much easier by virtue of their control and organizational structure inside densely populated areas. GOP just doesn't have it. They have to count on the enthusiasm gap being significant enough that they neutralize the Dems ability to more easily flip non votes to votes. Aka ballot harvesting and GOTV like bus to the polls.

I hope for the sake of the country it is a blowout that is easy to call by 12am eastern time. Anything that drags out calling the election past 8am the next morning will not be good for our country. If Trump has managed an EC blowout with a stronger than expected showing in WI and PA I think the Senate GOP number goes up past 52 to 54. If Michigan polling has way undercounted Trump voters this cycle I think it's possible the GOP Senate lands at 55. That would be something.

Everyone needs a hobby

AtticusMatlock said:

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Was watching the Sean Spicer YouTube channel today.(he's great by the way) and he had a GOP strategist on.

He was sworn to secrecy on the internal polling, but seemed pretty confident in a Trump plus Senate win.

When he was asked about the House, the guy hesitated and started talking about how much money the Democrats were spending compared to the GOP in some swing districts.

That's the tone right now, for what It's worth.

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Watched that. Just a reminder that tonight is Sean's last road to 270 broadcast wherin he has people on the tell what they are seeing on the ground inside the battleground states. It has been very helpful and interesting to help understand everything else that is happning.

Waffledynamics said:

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Still do not understand why betting sites are seen as credible.

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Then you don't understand the machine that's called gambling

Trump is now -210 but some of the other lines have moved a little toward Kamala