Some of the formerly most prestigious real estate.

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Big Apple office buildings have never been so empty.
While the peak era of remote work may feel long ago in the past, the number of vacant offices in Manhattan just hit a new record.

The borough's office availability rate - or, how much of that market is currently unfilled hit 18.1% in the first quarter of 2024, the highest rate ever recorded. That's according to a recent report by investment management company Colliers, Crain's first reported.

In contrast, that number, which includes currently empty offices and those that will be empty in the very near future, was just 10% back in March 2020. The majority of the 8% vacancy increase that has occurred since then happened between 2020 and 2022.

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With the increase in availability, rent has also gone down slightly; 0.2% over the course of February.

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"We are still waiting for demand to catch up and surpass supply," Colliers Executive Managing Director Franklin Wallach told Crain's. "It's still the early innings of 2024, and there are both a fair number of large leases pending and a large number of tenants in the market. But we also anticipate some large blocks of space to be added."

Downtown is hurting the most, according to Colliers, with the Financial District the most forsaken of commercial markets.

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Midtown has fared better, but the biggest divide in which offices will find tenants and which will remain derelict isn't based on neighborhood, but age and offerings. Newer, more amenity-filled Class A buildings, as they're called, are getting leased at a significantly faster clip.

For those banking on the death of remote work and the reclaiming of offices, there is one positive angle in Colliers' findings, Crain's notes: The rate at which offices are emptying out is, at least, not as fast as it was at the height of COVID-19.

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LINK

More tax revenue out of the window. Throw in the stupid Trump conviction, can it recover anytime soon?

PA24 said:

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China will pick up the prime real estate for nickels on the dollar.

All our major cities are poorly ran.

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Why? To tear down and rebuild housing?

Good. Hope they collapse.

The pluses to own a business and work in NYC are all going away:

It's too expensive. Anywhere else is cheaper.
Crime and homelessness are turnoffs.
Stores are closing due to crime.
It's inconvenient. I'd rather work from home.
The weather is horrible.
Almost everybody that lives there is a Democrat.
AOC/dems are actively running of businesses.
The shows are almost all woke BS now.

If I'm the NY Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq, I'm moving to Florida. Zero state income taxes, it's not freezing, it's growing instead of shrinking, the water and beaches are much prettier and Florida actually wants my business. And I can own guns but am much less likely to need them! In Florida the criminals go to jail and the victims are free. In NYC the criminal are set free and the victims are jailed!

Homeless shelters? NYC is Gotham City.

This clearly falls in the category of " you hate to see it".

I wonder what the real number is because I am betting it's a lot higher than that

halfastros81 said:

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This clearly falls in the category of " you hate to see it".

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We lived up north in the early 70s and Dad worked in NYC. It was a hell hole with crime and garbage back then but the office buildings still were occupied.

Guiliani cleaned it up and the city was booming. Guiliani had much more to work with the restore NYC.

Has now fallen back into bankruptcy, high crime and just another hellhole. Only this time there is far less to work with to get the city back on track to being a desirable place to work and live.

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prime real estate is still prime real estate especially in lower Manhattan.

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To whom? The group of buyers for such commercial real estate will be getting smaller not larger in time unless the other issues start to get resolved, IMO.

Remote work has changed that dynamic imo.

PA24 said:

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aggiehawg said:

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PA24 said:

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China will pick up the prime real estate for nickels on the dollar.

All our major cities are poorly ran.

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Why? To tear down and rebuild housing?

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Everything is cyclical, undesirable now, but in a few years, back on top again.

prime real estate is still prime real estate especially in lower Manhattan.

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Wanna bet? This is not some normal, cyclical thing. There is a sea change in the nation. Marxism versus Freedom. NYC has chosen lawlessness and Marxism.

Houston, Dallas, San Fran, LA it's all the same. NY just like the rest.

Old class B office space is really hard to lease now. Some will be converted to residential if viable. The others will be an eyesore, hopefully some get knocked down. Cities should move quickly to redevelop downtown area's or become Houston and Dallas during the oil bust of the 80's.

Houston's new Mayor plans to invest Billions downtown. Not sure where he's getting the cash.

Valuable real estate will eventually sell. Unless you are a concrete shell of an old hotel across the street from
Metro Station. No one wants that corner in Houston. The City should force its demolition.

Nobody wants to work in the office anymore.

NEW: The NYC Council began its meeting today by praising Allah as the supreme lord of the world, expressing their reverence in both Arabic and English. pic.twitter.com/yXX39lw61l

— I Meme Therefore I Am 🇺🇸 (@ImMeme0) April 12, 2024

I'm sure that is going to help matters.

The real estate recko ing is coming, it's going to hurt.

pfo said:

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The pluses to own a business and work in NYC are all going away:

It's too expensive. Anywhere else is cheaper.
Crime and homelessness are turnoffs.
Stores are closing due to crime.
It's inconvenient. I'd rather work from home.
The weather is horrible.
Almost everybody that lives there is a Democrat.
AOC/dems are actively running of businesses.
The shows are almost all woke BS now.

If I'm the NY Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq, I'm moving to Florida. Zero state income taxes, it's not freezing, it's growing instead of shrinking, the water and beaches are much prettier and Florida actually wants my business. And I can own guns but am much less likely to need them! In Florida the criminals go to jail and the victims are free. In NYC the criminal are set free and the victims are jailed!

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In my opinion the two highlighted points are the biggest drivers of businesses out of NYC.

Cost is always, always, always a consideration on locating a business. For years it has amazed me how so many companies located in NYC despite the costs associated with being in the city. I think that post Covid a lot of companies are rethinking their office plans in general. Work from home is part of that consideration but not all of it. The people running NYC have ignored the cost factor for decades and they kept adding fees and expenses and just assumed that businesses would just continue to pay whatever the cost was. Times have changed.

Dems/Libs are now actively running businesses out of NYC and NYS. This is out right stupid, but no one seems to be calling them out. There is no reason to set up shop in a City or State that is actually business unfriendly. You never know when you will be the next business that will be attacked and run off due to some political whim.

I have been wondering for years why the major Stock Exchanges are still even located in NYC or NYS. Everything is done electronically these days. Just moving out of NYC into the burbs would save millions every month. Moving to a no income tax state would probably save billions. This needs to happen.

PCC_80 said:

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pfo said:

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The pluses to own a business and work in NYC are all going away:

It's too expensive. Anywhere else is cheaper.
Crime and homelessness are turnoffs.
Stores are closing due to crime.
It's inconvenient. I'd rather work from home.
The weather is horrible.
Almost everybody that lives there is a Democrat.
AOC/dems are actively running of businesses.
The shows are almost all woke BS now.

If I'm the NY Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq, I'm moving to Florida. Zero state income taxes, it's not freezing, it's growing instead of shrinking, the water and beaches are much prettier and Florida actually wants my business. And I can own guns but am much less likely to need them! In Florida the criminals go to jail and the victims are free. In NYC the criminal are set free and the victims are jailed!

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In my opinion the two highlighted points are the biggest drivers of businesses out of NYC.

Cost is always, always, always a consideration on locating a business. For years it has amazed me how so many companies located in NYC despite the costs associated with being in the city. I think that post Covid a lot of companies are rethinking their office plans in general. Work from home is part of that consideration but not all of it. The people running NYC have ignored the cost factor for decades and they kept adding fees and expenses and just assumed that businesses would just continue to pay whatever the cost was. Times have changed.

Dems/Libs are now actively running businesses out of NYC and NYS. This is out right stupid, but no one seems to be calling them out. There is no reason to set up shop in a City or State that is actually business unfriendly. You never know when you will be the next business that will be attacked and run off due to some political whim.

I have been wondering for years why the major Stock Exchanges are still even located in NYC or NYS. Everything is done electronically these days. Just moving out of NYC into the burbs would save millions every month. Moving to a no income tax state would probably save billions. This needs to happen.

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Don't forget the energy issues in NY state with shutting down power plants and not allowing new pipelines to transport natural gas supplies to them. New builds have restrictions on new gas taps, last I checked. And Cuomo threatened to take over Con Ed when he was governor. Keeping the lights on could eaily become an issue in the near future.

aggiehawg said:

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PCC_80 said:

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pfo said:

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The pluses to own a business and work in NYC are all going away:

It's too expensive. Anywhere else is cheaper.
Crime and homelessness are turnoffs.
Stores are closing due to crime.
It's inconvenient. I'd rather work from home.
The weather is horrible.
Almost everybody that lives there is a Democrat.
AOC/dems are actively running of businesses.
The shows are almost all woke BS now.

If I'm the NY Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq, I'm moving to Florida. Zero state income taxes, it's not freezing, it's growing instead of shrinking, the water and beaches are much prettier and Florida actually wants my business. And I can own guns but am much less likely to need them! In Florida the criminals go to jail and the victims are free. In NYC the criminal are set free and the victims are jailed!

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In my opinion the two highlighted points are the biggest drivers of businesses out of NYC.

Cost is always, always, always a consideration on locating a business. For years it has amazed me how so many companies located in NYC despite the costs associated with being in the city. I think that post Covid a lot of companies are rethinking their office plans in general. Work from home is part of that consideration but not all of it. The people running NYC have ignored the cost factor for decades and they kept adding fees and expenses and just assumed that businesses would just continue to pay whatever the cost was. Times have changed.

Dems/Libs are now actively running businesses out of NYC and NYS. This is out right stupid, but no one seems to be calling them out. There is no reason to set up shop in a City or State that is actually business unfriendly. You never know when you will be the next business that will be attacked and run off due to some political whim.

I have been wondering for years why the major Stock Exchanges are still even located in NYC or NYS. Everything is done electronically these days. Just moving out of NYC into the burbs would save millions every month. Moving to a no income tax state would probably save billions. This needs to happen.

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Don't forget the energy issues in NY state with shutting down power plants and not allowing new pipelines to transport natural gas supplies to them. New builds have restrictions on new gas taps, last I checked. And Cuomo threatened to take over Con Ed when he was governor. Keeping the lights on could eaily become an issue in the near future.

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I had not thought about that. But, you are correct, NY has been very energy unfriendly which has also been stupid on their part. I doubt any major manufacturing plant would consider locating in NY due to their constrained energy supplies. It is like the whole state is run by children and or morons.

They can blame this on work from home, but I'd bet it's a lot more than that. All those companies that moved jobs to TX, FL, TN, UT have a lot to do with it.

The problem transcends NYs mismanagement.

https://www.kastle.com/safety-wellness/getting-america-back-to-work/

PA24 said:

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aggiehawg said:

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PA24 said:

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China will pick up the prime real estate for nickels on the dollar.

All our major cities are poorly ran.

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Why? To tear down and rebuild housing?

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Everything is cyclical, undesirable now, but in a few years, back on top again.

prime real estate is still prime real estate especially in lower Manhattan.

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People said the same thing about Detroit.

Detroit never fixed itself or its corruption and alot of Big 3 auto money left for greener pastures because of it....now look at it.

Past success does not guarantee future success and noone is too big to fail.

Ags4DaWin said:

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PA24 said:

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aggiehawg said:

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PA24 said:

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China will pick up the prime real estate for nickels on the dollar.

All our major cities are poorly ran.

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Why? To tear down and rebuild housing?

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Everything is cyclical, undesirable now, but in a few years, back on top again.

prime real estate is still prime real estate especially in lower Manhattan.

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People said the same thing about Detroit.

Detroit never fixed itself or its corruption and alot of Big 3 auto money left for greener pastures because of it....now look at it.

Past success does not guarantee future success and noone is too big to fail.

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Add San Fran and Minneapolis to that list of not coming back. Probably Seattle and Portland too.

But no more mean tweets! That's what matters!

Agreed

Unfortunately office is massively down everywhere, including all the TX and FL markets. Houston (has been bad for a very long time) and Austin are some of the worst in the nation. This is far worse than the Great Recession. The work from home trend has crushed the office market and it will take a long time to heal. I don't seen property values reaching pre COVID levels for at least a decade.

We gonna have to bail out danged ol Memaw again cause her pension in REITs!

It's not just "it is too expensive" for the businesses. It's harder to keep talent there because of state and local taxes. People move to somewhere where they can keep more of their paycheck.

birdman said:

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It's not just "it is too expensive" for the businesses. It's harder to keep talent there because of state and local taxes. People move to somewhere where they can keep more of their paycheck.

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And the commuter lifestyle kind of sucks if living across state lines in Connecticut or New Jersey.

If a Republican ever wins the presidency again, you don't want to be caught living in a blue city Hell hole with a massive debt and deficit. A Republican isn't going to bail out NYC, LA, Seattle, Portland or Chicago. So what are those cities going to do? They can't afford to run the day to day without a subsidy, much less pay the incredibly underfunded city and state pensions they owe. So either they are going to raise taxes hugely on whoever is stupid enough to stay there or they are going to reduce services and not pay pensions. It's going to be an angry city full of garbage, crowded pothole filled streets with minimal police protection.

pfo said:

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If a Republican ever wins the presidency again, you don't want to be caught living in a blue city Hell hole with a massive debt and deficit. A Republican isn't going to bail out NYC, LA, Seattle, Portland or Chicago. So what are those cities going to do? They can't afford to run the day to day without a subsidy, much less pay the incredibly underfunded city and state pensions they owe. So either they are going to raise taxes hugely on whoever is stupid enough to stay there or they are going to reduce services and not pay pensions. It's going to be an angry city full of garbage, crowded pothole filled streets with minimal police protection.

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So like it was in the 70s?

PA24 said:

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I tend to disagree, NYC will always be one of the top cities in the world.

Another Rudy will come along in the next few years and reverse the down cycle.

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Not chance in hell at least not in time to fix it in a matter of a few years. Will take longer than that.