I have posted it here many times but believe the predicative capabilities of this poll are the single greatest indicator of how the 2024 Presidential election will turn out.

Link to historical data on this poll

Add in 2020: 70% WT and 30% RT. That flipped from R to D.

So let's look at the here and now. What is the Right Track / Wrong Track poll saying
73% WT, 27% RT. (Link McLaughlin & Ass 1-11 thru 1-14)
78% WT, 22% RT. (Link Hill recap)

There is plenty of reason to be optimistic about 2024 and Trump's chances of winning. Don't be persuaded by individuals gut and anecdotes and instead look at real data with a proven history of predictive success.

Where's 2020? Because that poll is a case of whether or not you're satisfied with the incumbent, but both major candidates are effectively incumbents, and I suspect Trump's results were also in the red (no pun intended).

Run anyone except trump against Biden and agree you have a point.

We haven't had a figure as polarizing as Trump before either, who's been impeached twice and indicted four times.

Run someone other than Trump and the general election is about Biden. The R's win that one easily.

Run Trump against Biden and it becomes about Trump. I'm afraid the Dems win that one.



We will see... I can't change it. I guess I need to find a way to just enjoy the pure entertainment value of the circus we'll see all the way through and post-election.

Can't be an official thread without ******************************** being on the thread title.

Jeeper79 said:

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Where's 2020? Because that poll is a case of whether or not you're satisfied with the incumbent, but both major candidates are effectively incumbents, and I suspect Trump's results were also in the red (no pun intended).

Run anyone except trump against Biden and agree you have a point.

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This unfortunately. No idea what the primary electorate is thinking.

Philip J Fry said:

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Jeeper79 said:

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Where's 2020? Because that poll is a case of whether or not you're satisfied with the incumbent, but both major candidates are effectively incumbents, and I suspect Trump's results were also in the red (no pun intended).

Run anyone except trump against Biden and agree you have a point.

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This unfortunately. No idea what the primary electorate is thinking.

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If the GOP ran anyone else but Trump then the democrats wouldn't be running Biden.

Exactly

Trump just gifted Dems total immunity from having to run on the issues or defending Bidens abysmal record and instead made it 100% "But Orange Man BAD!"

Not only that, all those Dems who would have sat home instead of voting FOR Biden will crawl over glass to vote against Orange Boogeyman

Add to it further that there aren't enough Independents who like Trump to secure victory in the swing states and there's virtually no chance Trump wins the general


We tried to tell you

We tried to warn you

But the media played the party base like a cheap violin with making Trump a martyr and they took the bait without a second thought

It is good data to keep in mind.

But as already stated, there are aspects of this year that are unique.

You'd have to go back to Teddy Roosevelt running as a Progressive Party candidate to get a former president running a virtual incumbency campaign without being in the office. The only thing that blocked Teddies win inside the GOP was the power of incumbency currently in office from within the same party.

While they won't receive the benefit of a master government executive with DeSantis, the benefit the GOP and perhaps America will enjoy with a Trump victory inside the GOP primary is the elimination of Bull Moose Party 2.0. Bull Moose 1.0 brought us Wilson and some of the most egregious federal government overreach in U.S. history. Overreach we all suffer through to this day.

We can certainly hope that in a Trump candidacy the GOP has a unified Roosevelt/Taft ticket to defeat the Democrats.

Let's just hope if Trump gets past the finish line first he's more Taft and less Teddy. It's a bit unnerving that the GOP presumptive nominee has a little dash of Eugene Deb's to go along with his Teddy tendencies.


Some of you that are certain Trump can't win I think are overlooking just how much power the media has lost in the current age. They certainly have lots of tricks up their sleeves to block information from the masses, but it has become a very difficult thing to fully control enough to persuade a rock solid majority of likely voters.

Is they had much power as you are still giving them there would be far more people absolutely certain the Trump led an insurrection than currently exists.

Sean Trende is a data analyst over at RCP that last posted up an article on the data back in November. I look forward to see his upcoming analysis. It's worth taking a look at it.

The problem Dems have is that they have thrown so much false information against Trump for so long that the laws of diminishing returns are starting to have there way. Keep in mind. Trump will never have to persuade any of the populations in the 20 states he's never won. He only has to convince 3 of the 5 he won once and lost once and get the democrats off balance in places like Nevada and NH.

Oh and he has to have a party that has figured out how to ballot harvest.

Maroon Dawn said:

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Exactly

Trump just gifted Dems total immunity from having to run on the issues or defending Bidens abysmal record and instead made it 100% "But Orange Man BAD!"

Not only that, all those Dems who would have sat home instead of voting FOR Biden will crawl over glass to vote against Orange Boogeyman

Add to it further that there aren't enough Independents who like Trump to secure victory in the swing states and there's virtually no chance Trump wins the general


We tried to tell you

We tried to warn you

But the media played the party base like a cheap violin with making Trump a martyr and they took the bait without a second thought

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We have established a "baseline" for Right Direction and Wrong track with results as of Jan 11-14th of 2024. these results would be before the people being polled were forced to see "wrong track" as being not on Trump's track. As it becomes clearer that saying right track means saying Biden's administration and saying Wrong Track means preferring Trump's administration then the movement from now will be telling.

If what you say is true you should see the RT/WT pull closer to 45 to 55 (RT/WT). If it stays split as is, that would likely mean the electorate already accepted Trump as the alternative and that is overwhelming approval for him.

Your cynicism is noted. When you turn out wrong again you can thank us non-chicken littles

Jeeper79 said:

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Where's 2020?

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2020 wasn't included because of cheating. HTH

I don't think people realize how big X not being subject to FBI/DOJ directed censorship is. FB/Instagram can't compete with the speed of news on X.

I'd be interested in the trend of most popular podcasters toward democrats. If people are consuming more of that longform content that is more conservative in dogma then that will be a big sign. Though that is more indicative of male voting trends.

TexAgs91 said:

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Jeeper79 said:

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Where's 2020?

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2020 wasn't included because of cheating. HTH

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I did include 2020. It would have predicted a switch from Republican to Democrat.

Covid made this result rather screwy in my opinion.

Mclaughlin Time series of RD/WT poll
On slide 2 of the above link, you will see how Trump's WT was hovering around 55% until Covid in Feb 2020. Trump winning would have been confirmation that people were more afraid of Biden's direction of handling covid then Trump's. Keep in mind that all took substantial censorship on the part of Twitter, FB, MSM, Instagram etc to create so much negativity towards Trump.

What are other predictors you look at for the 2024 election?

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Run Trump against Biden and it becomes about Trump. I'm afraid the Dems win that one.

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This election is about America versus marxism. Anyone who makes it about anything else is a marxist or ignorant. Don't be distracted.

Ellis Wyatt said:

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Quote:

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Run Trump against Biden and it becomes about Trump. I'm afraid the Dems win that one.

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This election is about America versus marxism. Anyone who makes it about anything else is a marxist or ignorant. Don't be distracted.

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So was 2020. So was 2016.

2012 and 2008, as it turns out, were Marxism vs Marxism-lite.

Latest YouGov poll Right Direction Wrong Track YouGov (pg 4, 55)

Generally on the right track: 26%
On the wrong track: 63%
Unsure: 12%
That is -37% points.

What makes these polls interesting is at this point Trump will be seen as the clear alternative to Biden. So psychologically I'd expect to see RT/WT flatten out to 50/50 if people are more scared of Trump than Biden as they will see those as the only alternatives.

TLDR, still good news for Trump.