These guys are in serious trouble.

At this rate, they will lose almost 1% of their population every 5-6 years.

That's bad.


"China ended 2023 with 1.410 billion people, a drop of 2.08 million, as births continue to plummet

...

The latest number points to a fertility ratethe number of children a woman has over her lifetimethat is close to 1.0, a level considered by demographers as "ultralow."



Paywall:
China's Population Decline Accelerates https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-population-decline-accelerated-last-year-a5096672

China cares about the earth after all.

Logos Stick said:

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These guys are in serious trouble.

At this rate, they will lose almost 1% of their population every 5-6 years.

That's good

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FIFY

You think that's bad? Take a look at the fertility rate in S Korea. They legitimately wont exist in 50 years.

It's a fact and favorable to the US. That said...Wsj and NYT both have this as front page stories this morning. This has deep state written all over it.

Tea Party said:

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I love that guy. He's right, too.

tk111 said:

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You think that's bad? Take a look at the fertility rate in S Korea. They legitimately wont exist in 50 years.

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Every Northeast Asian country is experiencing this issue: China, South Korea, Taiwan, Japan, etc.

Despite wildly different governments and different overarching cultures and religions, they are in steep declines from a TFR standpoint.

I am convinced it's a racial genetic issue at this point. Their collectivist nature has made them incapable of bucking societal trends. Since the current trend is not having kids, it's very unlikely to ever change unless the government forces it at gunpoint. They have all tried incentives and none of them have changed anything at all.

Still 4x population of USA.

Don't worry, the Palestinians will make up the difference. We could ship them to China...

Someone actually believes numbers out of China?
If the CCP is admitting a dropping birth rate you can bet it is a lot more than what they say it is.

CDUB98 said:

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I hope and pray I see the fall of the Chinese Communist gov't in my lifetime.

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You better be very, very young.

1% every 5-6 years.

So 4% in in 2 decades... sorry, but this doesnt seem like a big deal.

I also dont believe any numbers coming out of china... so it could be twice as bad or half as bad... depending on what angle they are trying to play.

If we could bring this guy back from the 80's he could resurrect Japan's birthrate

rab79 said:

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Someone actually believes numbers out of China?
If the CCP is admitting a dropping birth rate you can bet it is a lot more than what they say it is.

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Yes because South Korea's, Japan's, and Taiwan's numbers are similar or even lower.

Logos Stick said:

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These guys are in serious trouble.

At this rate, they will lose almost 1% of their population every 5-6 years.

That's bad.


"China ended 2023 with 1.410 billion people, a drop of 2.08 million, as births continue to plummet

...

The latest number points to a fertility ratethe number of children a woman has over her lifetimethat is close to 1.0, a level considered by demographers as "ultralow."



Paywall:
China's Population Decline Accelerates https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-population-decline-accelerated-last-year-a5096672

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Peter Zeihan talks about this a lot. The Han people that are the core of China and the CCP could cease to exist in as little as 50 years.

I don't think China is going to run out of people any time soon.

Nanomachines son said:

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rab79 said:

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Someone actually believes numbers out of China?
If the CCP is admitting a dropping birth rate you can bet it is a lot more than what they say it is.

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Yes because South Korea's, Japan's, and Taiwan's numbers are similar or even lower.

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And I am saying that the drop in birth rate is greater than what the CCP will admit.

I think the major concern is the decline in future working age adults that will be relied on in 10-20 years to support China's vast future elderly population.

torrid said:

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I don't think China is going to run out of people any time soon.

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Come back to me after you read that thread about the man-rat brain killing disease the Chicom labs are cooking up.

Of course if they let that go, every other country might run out of people too.

torrid said:

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I don't think China is going to run out of people any time soon.

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Of course there will be people but an upside down demographic has dire consequences for a society to function. Everything breaks down unless you have a real plan to deal with it. Japan for instance has actually done real planning. They have moved a lot of their manufacturing to the US and they are heavy into Robotics. It won't solve the problem but it will at least help. China has little high skill labor and what it has generally leaves, same with Russia. I have hired a LOT of both and these folks don't want to go back except to visit, maybe. Indians like to go home and stay connected. Chinese and Russians? Not nearly as much unless they are supporting older parents. I've hired and worked with a LOT of them.

The only negative on China imploding (which is absolutely happening) is that means they might do desperate and irrational things. We need to keep them from invading Taiwan and doing all we can to disengage and let them self destruct on their own. The CCP is doomed and it is unlikely to go quietly into the night, we just don't want to get in the middle of that anymore than necessary.

Anything we have dependence on China for we should be aggressively moving away from. Even the pork infused CHIPs Act is worth it. We need to GTFO of China in every way we can yesterday.

Fumbleruski said:

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I think the major concern is the decline in future working age adults that will be relied on in 10-20 years to support China's vast future elderly population.

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Exactly. "Have more kids, comrade" will be a non-starter for a young couple supporting four elderly parents.

Time for Abbott to start a Tex-China pipeline for illegals

DallasAg 94 said:

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HollywoodBQ said:

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I don't see a problem here.
China cedes the population lead to India.
3rd place is over 1B behind #1 and #2 and we certainly don't need anymore low skilled people.

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3rd place, sure... and when you realize that #1, 5, and 8... if you combined 5 & 8, it'd be 3rd.


1 India 1,428,627,663 0.81 %
2 China 1,425,671,352 -0.02 %
3 USA 339,996,563 0.50 %
4 Indonesia 277,534,122 0.74 %
5 Pakistan 240,485,658 1.98 %
6 Nigeria 223,804,632 2.41 %
7 Brazil 216,422,446 0.52 %
8 Bangladesh 172,954,319f 1.03 %

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Pretty sure that US number is about 25 million higher than what is being reported.

Fumbleruski said:

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I think the major concern is the decline in future working age adults that will be relied on in 10-20 years to support China's vast future elderly population.

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Insert WuFlu 2.0 which unsurprisingly will target elderly.

What matters is prosperity per capita. Not the number of people.

If a nation looses population (like when a boomer population dies off) but the people left behind are more productive than the prosperity per capita would increase and they would be better off in general. If they double their population, but only increase production by 50%, then they will be worse off.

rab79 said:

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Nanomachines son said:

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rab79 said:

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Someone actually believes numbers out of China?
If the CCP is admitting a dropping birth rate you can bet it is a lot more than what they say it is.

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Yes because South Korea's, Japan's, and Taiwan's numbers are similar or even lower.

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And I am saying that the drop in birth rate is greater than what the CCP will admit.

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Probably. South Korea is at 0.7.

I'm glad. China was due to take a step back. They've been on a massive upswing since the early 90's.

Honeymoon years ago (last decade). The Hans might be the rudest self serving culture I have ever had to interact with. F the Hans. That is all.

I'm not talking American Chinese. I'm talking pure bred Han a holes that are the most entitled small dick energy folks I've ever had to be around for a significant amount of time.

Not Coach Jimbo said:

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1% every 5-6 years.

So 4% in in 2 decades... sorry, but this doesnt seem like a big deal.

I also dont believe any numbers coming out of china... so it could be twice as bad or half as bad... depending on what angle they are trying to play.

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That 4% in 20 years are all the prime workers not being born by that point in time while all the Chinese gen xers retire… sets up an economic mess