Don't kill the messenger!

Looks like Beto campaign is touting a statistical tie In the race:

Beto O'Rourke: 45%
Greg Abbott: 49%
Margin of Error: 4.4%
Marist Texas Poll, October 12, 2022

Any truth to this? Never heard of Marist,when I first saw it I thought it said Marxist

Marist leans way left.

This will be the last round of push polling. They'll have to try to be more accurate in the coming weeks so they can say "see, see, see, we were right in the end" and everyone will forget all of their atrocious polling.

Right now they are trying to give the Democrats one last helping hand.

check and see how much they oversampled Democrats.

Its not a tie.

as usually happens with the polls, that remaining 6% will all vote for abbott

Well if you just poll women in the Big Metro Suburbs maybe. Going to be very surprised if this is within 10.

Also, those are numbers with "registered voters". Same poll among "likely voters" has Abbott up 8. With a left leaning poll that continually under-samples GOP voters, Beto's campaign is still dead in the water.

Two words: LOL

I think I read somewhere on 538 that Marist is usually 6-7 points to the left... I think that says all you need to know

Glad to hear many think this is all BS, it's what i initially thought! The idea of that goober being a governor is revulting, I want him to lose by 20 points or more so we never see him in politics again but I know that is wishful thinking.

Hi In4TheHuddle, this is Beto for Texas. Beto is running for governor to serve all Texas and it's going to take everyone's vote to help us win! Can we count on your support for Beto in the upcoming election?

Stop=opt out

A lot more Beto, Mother's Against Greg Abbott, and Judge Sakai signs in SA 78209 than I would like. However, seems like fewer than previous Beto campaigns and a lot more signs for conservatives.

GCRanger said:

---

A lot more Beto, Mother's Against Greg Abbott, and Judge Sakai signs in SA 78209 than I would like. However, seems like fewer than previous Beto campaigns and a lot more signs for conservatives.

---

78248 here.


There WERE 3.

GCRanger said:

---

A lot more Beto, Mother's Against Greg Abbott, and Judge Sakai signs in SA 78209 than I would like. However, seems like fewer than previous Beto campaigns and a lot more signs for conservatives.

---

I live in Williamson county and travel to Travis for work and notice FAR less than 2018 Beto signs

Good. I just put up my brand new Come and Take It flag so the idiots in my hood with Beto signs can tell Soy Boy Robert who's door to knock on first when he commences to start collecting guns.

Conservatives don't do polls

The only reason Abbott won't get 60% is the NeverAbbotts out there.

I don't think he'll get less than 54, and I'm betting he gets more.

GigEmJake17 said:

---

GCRanger said:

---

A lot more Beto, Mother's Against Greg Abbott, and Judge Sakai signs in SA 78209 than I would like. However, seems like fewer than previous Beto campaigns and a lot more signs for conservatives.

---

I live in Williamson county and travel to Travis for work and notice FAR less than 2018 Beto signs

---

fewer

I've seen approximately zero Beta signs in The Woodlands. There actually were some Beta signs around here when he ran for senate. I've seen one MAGA (confused brainwashed Mothers Against Greg Abbott) sign.

BQ78 said:

---

Hi In4TheHuddle, this is Beto for Texas. Beto is running for governor to serve all Texas and it's going to take everyone's vote to help us win! Can we count on your support for Beto in the upcoming election?

Stop=opt out

---

Yes! I've definitely been bombarded with the Beto spam, I keep leading them on that I'm undecided hoping to at least take some of their resurces away. I keep pinging them on specifically diametric topics.

What's his stance on fiat cryto?
Does he support the Fed's inflation?
Will Beto have a baby to prove men can have babies, if so, does that mean he's pro life?

They always get back to me, but keep pointing me to his website to which I reply I need specific answers

Rapier108 said:

---

Marist leans way left.

This will be the last round of push polling. They'll have to try to be more accurate in the coming weeks so they can say "see, see, see, we were right in the end" and everyone will forget all of their atrocious polling.

Right now they are trying to give the Democrats one last helping hand.

---

You misspelled Marxist.

Layne Staley said:

---

check and see how much they oversampled Democrats.

Its not a tie.

---

This is an old misconception. You have to look a lot deeper to see how they weigh those demographics.

If a pollster needs 25 responses to get a 5% error margin and one of their customers asks for preferences for Democrats in 10 year age groups between 18-78 they would need to sample 6 sets of 25 individuals in each age group. Or 150 in total.

If their customer is only interested in a breakdown of Republicans by sex, the pollster would seek responses by 25 men and 25 women. Or 50 total.

The pollster would not report a 75% - 25% split, it would depend on how they model the the electorate.

No one polled me.

No one ever polls me.

Edit: same poll

Difference of likely vs registered voters

In4TheHuddle said:

---

Don't kill the messenger!

Looks like Beto campaign is touting a statistical tie In the race:

Beto O'Rourke: 45%
Greg Abbott: 49%
Margin of Error: 4.4%
Marist Texas Poll, October 12, 2022

Any truth to this? Never heard of Marist,when I first saw it I thought it said Marxist

---

Marxist, oop I mean Marist ??? Bawahahah

Not worried in the least.

Can we bet on this? No way Beto wins Texas

If the margin of error is +/- 4%, that could also mean Abbott is up by as much as 12%...

It's going to be a 10-12 point win for Abbott

The amount of Beta commercials I'm seeing is insane. Literally every single commercial break on some channels runs one or both.

The first one is a woman talking about how much her daughter loved her shoes, and she could only be identified by her shoes after Uvalde. Then she says that Abbott hasn't done anything to keep kids safe "so that's why I'm voting for Beto." And of course, she says Beto in a heavy Spanish accent.

The second is a guy saying he's a trauma surgeon, but hospitals are turning people away and he isn't allow to help people because of Abbott so he's voting for O'Dork. Then O'Dork comes on and says he will expand Medicare which will cover 1.7 million Texans, create 300,000 jobs, and lower property taxes.

lb3 said:

---

Layne Staley said:

---

check and see how much they oversampled Democrats.

Its not a tie.

---

This is an old misconception. You have to look a lot deeper to see how they weigh those demographics.

If a pollster needs 25 responses to get a 5% error margin and one of their customers asks for preferences for Democrats in 10 year age groups between 18-78 they would need to sample 6 sets of 25 individuals in each age group. Or 150 in total.

If their customer is only interested in a breakdown of Republicans by sex, the pollster would seek responses by 25 men and 25 women. Or 50 total.

The pollster would not report a 75% - 25% split, it would depend on how they model the the electorate.

---

no offense but you are wrong. when they actually disclose this, they oversample. the old, archaic explanation is that there are more democrats the polster is making a representation of what they think the actual demographics are of the electorate.

Most polls are either
1) the media trying to create news and therefore $$$
2) a psyop to disenfranchise their opposition's supporters from showing up to the polls out of futility.

78232 here. There used to be a Beto sign across the street, but they took it down weeks ago. I haven't put my TEXIT NOW sign back up in a while, to be fair.

Current spread for this race 8.5 points

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/governor/tx/texas-governor-abbott-vs-orourke-7376.html

rocky the dog said:

---

No one polled me.

No one ever polls me.

---

Damn I love GSPs

My statistic professor used say statistics are awesome, give me a set of data and tell me what you want the results to be and it will.
It's ridiculously easy to make a poll say what you want based simply on the audience you survey.

Three keys are having a random sample of likely voters, the way the questions are worded, and sample size (usually not an issue). Definitely how the data is presented is crucial and researchers should decide a priori the most logical way to present the data before data collection.
Lots of junk out there and RARELY does the media present enough information to make an informed decision. Peer reviewed journals are preferred. Newspapers are notoriously poor sources.