Better put the time and effort in the House races at this point.

k

I've got a feeling that the GOP pulls it out in PA and GA. Add NV to the mix and I think the GOP retakes control.

NV is looking like a win barring Trump screwing it up.

NV, AZ, OH, GA, PA are the swing states. It's looking fairly good in about 4 of those for Republicans. But who knows what will happen in the next month.

Arizona and even New Hampshire aren't lost yet either. Hassan has lost a few points in the last few days and it's approaching MOE. Nevada looks really good for the GOP. Have to see how all this new mess for Walker plays out in GA. Fetterman continues to lose ground in PA and I don't know how he gets momentum back.

It's going to be close.

Gabster43213 said:

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Better put the time and effort in the House races at this point.

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Why not both?

Wow OP you really laid it all out there.

will25u said:

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NV, AZ, OH, GA, PA are the swing states. It's looking fairly good in about 4 of those for Republicans. But who knows what will happen in the next month.

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Colorado and Washington are also looking iffy for the communists.

NH has become a possibility.

Buldoc and Sununu are different parts of the GOP spectrum, but in the state like NH, if Buldoc is within a few points of Hassan, Sununus popularity might just pull him through to a win. Sununu is up by 15 points and has stayed above 50% in all but one single Poll this entire cycle. That's textbook cruising to victory.

I haven't paid close enough attention. I doubt Sununu is allowing Buldoc to ride his coattails, but it might not matter if Hassan stays below 50% and Buldoc is polling within the MoE.

As an early night indicator I would look at the results of this race to gauge what might happen in NV and AZ. NH doesn't have the same Latino dynamics as AZ and NV, so that makes the three different on that front, but a GOP win in NH does probably give an indication of where the Independent voters head is in this cycle. Might show that economy and perhaps even immigration are more important than abortion and "threats to democracy" and that Independents aren't really buying what Dems are selling with the lies they are running on.

policywonk98 said:

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NH has become a possibility.

Buldoc and Sununu are different parts of the GOP spectrum, but in the state like NH, if Buldoc is within a few points of Hassan, Sununus popularity might just pull him through to a win. Sununu is up by 15 points and has stayed above 50% in all but one single Poll this entire cycle. That's textbook cruising to victory.

I haven't paid close enough attention. I doubt Sununu is allowing Buldoc to ride his coattails, but it might not matter if Hassan stays below 50% and Buldoc is polling within the MoE.

As an early night indicator I would look at the results of this race to gauge what might happen in NV and AZ. NH doesn't have the same Latino dynamics as AZ and NV, so that makes the three different on that front, but a GOP win in NH does probably give an indication of where the Independent voters head is in this cycle. Might show that economy and perhaps even immigration are more important than abortion and "threats to democracy" and that Independents aren't really buying what Dems are selling with the lies they are running on.

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Agree. Do not sleep on this race. Maggie Hassen is about as generic democrat as they come.

I don't understand why that race isn't any closer, but I've seen no signs of it being more like a 5 point vs. a 12 point race to date. Maybe the leftist media up there has made Bolduc out to be an extremist/conspiracy theorist or something.

Washington and Colorado look more competitive, imho, to play offense.

Another hit and run troll thread by a leftist from the GB.

It's hard to fathom a rhit aard dead mf like Fetterman might be elected by the people of Pennsylvania to be one of only 100 select individuals as the top lawmakers in the land.

John Fetterman is not ok. pic.twitter.com/6WToqZzARd

— Steve Guest (@SteveGuest) October 5, 2022

This country is ****ed if that guy represents what Americans want as US Senators.

Gabster43213 said:

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Better put the time and effort in the House races at this point.

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Which races?

Against whom?

Why?

Dude - delete your thread. this is ridiculous.

Oz is going to pull it out.

History shows the other side wins the midterms. This is always seen as a given and doesn't look like that's going to change this time.

I fully expect the GOP to take control of both houses.

To your point.

Sean Trende of RCP has a great write up about this from a history and data analysis stand-point from last week.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2022/09/29/setting_expectations_for_the_house_in_2022_midterms.html

Some great data to ponder in the article.

His concluding statement.

Quote:

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So where does this leave us? It's plausible for Democrats to hold the House, but it really would require some reordering of our understanding of what makes elections work. Even elections that look extreme or unusual, like 2002 or 1998, weren't unusual; the presidents were just popular, much as Joe Biden is not.

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Polls are worthless.