Chinese President Xi Jinping has told his military that he wants to have the capability to take control of Taiwan by force by 2027, per CIA Deputy Director David Cohen—but, he said, the IC does not currently believe that Beijing has made a decision about whether to proceed.

— Katie Bo Lillis (@KatieBoLillis) September 16, 2022

“He has not made the decision to do that, but he has asked his military to put him in a position where if that's what he wanted to do, he would be able to. It's still the assessment of the IC as a whole that Xi's interest in Taiwan is to get control through nonmilitary means.”

— Katie Bo Lillis (@KatieBoLillis) September 16, 2022

Our IC has been really good about reading enemy intentions..

The U.S. should massively ramp up production of AA missile batteries, harpoon antiship missiles, and anti-tank/anti-armor ordinance and deliver to Taiwan. Throw in some anti-ship mines and a few attack subs.

There is no way the U.S. can successfully defend Taiwan against overwhelming Chinese forces, but we can make it very, very expensive for them like we have with Russia and Ukraine.

The difference is that China is much more formidable than Russia is.

C@LAg said:

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joe biden already ordering the withdrawal of all personnel.
/s

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After his check for 10% clears.

C@LAg said:

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joe biden already ordering the withdrawal of all personnel.
/s

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I think what you meant to say is that he has already adjusted his portfolio to profit off of this.

This is fascinating. We have some really smart people here saying China is likely to come apart as a unified nation in this decade yet the leader is saying he wants to take Taiwan by force within five years. Zeihan has said repeatedly that Xi has created an environment where nobody is willing to tell him anything bad which is leading to some really bizarre decisions by people under him who think they're doing what he wants but are afraid to ask for fear of retribution. At this point I'm not sure anyone really knows what's happening over there which is scary for a nuclear armed nation with the second largest economy in the world.

Central Committee said:

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The U.S. should massively ramp up production of AA missile batteries, harpoon antiship missiles, and anti-tank/anti-armor ordinance and deliver to Taiwan. Throw in some anti-ship mines and a few attack subs.

There is no way the U.S. can successfully defend Taiwan against overwhelming Chinese forces, but we can make it very, very expensive for them like we have with Russia and Ukraine.

The difference is that China is much more formidable than Russia is.

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I'm not saying we will stop them but hypothetically why can't we? How is China going to deploy their invasion force in your mind? Serious question because honestly I disagree but I'd love to hear the thought process.

US resolve has always been questioned by the Chinese communist and for good reason, but do it at your own peril.

Central Committee said:

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The U.S. should massively ramp up production of AA missile batteries, harpoon antiship missiles, and anti-tank/anti-armor ordinance and deliver to Taiwan. Throw in some anti-ship mines and a few attack subs.

There is no way the U.S. can successfully defend Taiwan against overwhelming Chinese forces, but we can make it very, very expensive for them like we have with Russia and Ukraine.

The difference is that China is much more formidable than Russia is.

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If China wants Taiwan and will use force, no one can stop them. Their proximity, willingness to sacrifice men (and enemy) and suppress their own peoples dissent will make it a guaranteed victory. It'll happen in the lifetime of Xi.

Burpelson said:

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US resolve has always been questioned by the Chinese communist and for good reason, but do it at your own peril.

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I think that's a fair thing for them to question. We change direction every 4-12 years which makes us a bit difficult to predict. Our government was designed to be small and unobtrusive and has somehow become the largest political and economic entity in human history. We don't have a system designed to run the world yet here we are.

newbie11 said:

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Central Committee said:

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The U.S. should massively ramp up production of AA missile batteries, harpoon antiship missiles, and anti-tank/anti-armor ordinance and deliver to Taiwan. Throw in some anti-ship mines and a few attack subs.

There is no way the U.S. can successfully defend Taiwan against overwhelming Chinese forces, but we can make it very, very expensive for them like we have with Russia and Ukraine.

The difference is that China is much more formidable than Russia is.

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If China wants Taiwan and will use force, no one can stop them. Their proximity, willingness to sacrifice men (and enemy) and suppress their own peoples dissent will make it a guaranteed victory. It'll happen in the lifetime of Xi.

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That's not an answer. They have to physically get them there. Yes they have a huge amount of people but only 500 military boats. Assuming we have the resolve to sink all of those vessels, and make no mistake we have the ability to do just that, how are they going to get them there and why can't we physically stop it? It's an 80 mile wide moat. That's a whole lot of distance to cover with a vastly inferior naval force. Why is it assumed they take it when they're ready? If they believed that they'd already have tried.

LOYAL AG said:

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newbie11 said:

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Central Committee said:

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The U.S. should massively ramp up production of AA missile batteries, harpoon antiship missiles, and anti-tank/anti-armor ordinance and deliver to Taiwan. Throw in some anti-ship mines and a few attack subs.

There is no way the U.S. can successfully defend Taiwan against overwhelming Chinese forces, but we can make it very, very expensive for them like we have with Russia and Ukraine.

The difference is that China is much more formidable than Russia is.

---

If China wants Taiwan and will use force, no one can stop them. Their proximity, willingness to sacrifice men (and enemy) and suppress their own peoples dissent will make it a guaranteed victory. It'll happen in the lifetime of Xi.

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That's not an answer. They have to physically get them there. Yes they have a huge amount of people but only 500 military boats. Assuming we have the resolve to sink all of those vessels, and make no mistake we have the ability to do just that, how are they going to get them there and why can't we physically stop it? It's an 80 mile wide moat. That's a whole lot of distance to cover with a vastly inferior naval force. Why is it assumed they take it when they're ready? If they believed that they'd already have tried.

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This is an important point.

The PLA invading Taiwan would be the most complicated invasion in military history and a challenge for a country who hasn't been a part of a war since 1984.

Furthermore, even during the Korean War Mao felt pressure as personnel losses mounted, today the PLAA is about the same size as the USA.

LOYAL AG said:

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This is fascinating. We have some really smart people here saying China is likely to come apart as a unified nation in this decade yet the leader is saying he wants to take Taiwan by force within five years. Zeihan has said repeatedly that Xi has created an environment where nobody is willing to tell him anything bad which is leading to some really bizarre decisions by people under him who think they're doing what he wants but are afraid to ask for fear of retribution. At this point I'm not sure anyone really knows what's happening over there which is scary for a nuclear armed nation with the second largest economy in the world.

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People on these boards have been erroneously predicting, with such certainty, China's collapse for years

It hasn't happened, and it won't happen anytime soon, if ever

These people impute the West's ability to withstand punishment, discomfort, economic depression, and social unrest onto China

It don't work that way.

Losing or killing millions of their own citizens is nothing to them. They don't blink an eye

Central Committee said:

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The U.S. should massively ramp up production of AA missile batteries, harpoon antiship missiles, and anti-tank/anti-armor ordinance and deliver to Taiwan. Throw in some anti-ship mines and a few attack subs.

There is no way the U.S. can successfully defend Taiwan against overwhelming Chinese forces, but we can make it very, very expensive for them like we have with Russia and Ukraine.

The difference is that China is much more formidable than Russia is.

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Wait! Our missiles run on AA batteries?!?!

aezmvp said:

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Our IC has been really good about reading enemy intentions..

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lol
Assume this is sarcasm.

Yes they can be stopped. And if the world reacts in a unified fashion as they have with Ukraine (to arm Taiwan and to harm China economically) but with even more concern because of TSMC it can even be forever forestalled. The world is slowly waking up.

It seems that only the US government is committting harikari via its war on western energy climate crisis. China has no oil and gas. We do. China has most of the worlds lithium and other materials for batteries we do not. Everything we do in that space only helps China and hurts the west.

We can Collapse China economically within months by blockade of petroleum, coal, food, and raw materials.

While the west leans heavily on China for strategic metals, China is utterly dependent on foreign imports for sufficient food, energy, and many raw materials. Most of that is ocean transported. China could be starved and economically crushed in short order, and they know it. They know it would be very painful for their enemies to do, but that it is a very real threat they cannot yet prevent, if ever.

Captain Pablo said:

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LOYAL AG said:

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This is fascinating. We have some really smart people here saying China is likely to come apart as a unified nation in this decade yet the leader is saying he wants to take Taiwan by force within five years. Zeihan has said repeatedly that Xi has created an environment where nobody is willing to tell him anything bad which is leading to some really bizarre decisions by people under him who think they're doing what he wants but are afraid to ask for fear of retribution. At this point I'm not sure anyone really knows what's happening over there which is scary for a nuclear armed nation with the second largest economy in the world.

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People on these boards have been erroneously predicting, with such certainty, China's collapse for years

It hasn't happened, and it won't happen anytime soon, if ever

These people impute the West's ability to withstand punishment, discomfort, economic depression, and social unrest onto China

It don't work that way.

Losing or killing millions of their own citizens is nothing to them. They don't blink an eye

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That is it.

I like ziehan but i think he misses this fact, and also the fact (maybe, i dont know) that in a command authoritarian economy, economic rules dont always apply.

So what if they suckered their citizens into spending their savings on empty buildings and ghost cities and their population is decreasing and theyre all gonna lose their life saving? What r they gonna do about it?

Ziehan thinks they collapse. I think they get told to get ****ed, stfu, and get back to work by guys in tanks.

So what if they have too many old pensioners? Ziehan thinks they collapse. I think they round up all those old folks and starve their asses in camps. And tell everyone else to get ****ed, stfu, and get back to work.

China is now the first digital leninist dystopian nightmare. Their society is so far beyond orwell now it is beyond belief.

So its not just guys in tanks. Its 24/7/365 surveillance/ai sorting listening devices to identify dissidents and prevention of their travel, aggregation, or organization. Its drone swarm assassinations. Its robot sentries. Etc.,

They may keep it together literally as long as they can feed and supply their military and critical 20% of workers.



And then put the thread title into context. In a command economy, i think you can build a deepwater navy in 5 years, and a regionally dominant air force. That is all they need to turn their collapse outward and go seize the food and resources they need.

Captain Pablo said:

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LOYAL AG said:

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This is fascinating. We have some really smart people here saying China is likely to come apart as a unified nation in this decade yet the leader is saying he wants to take Taiwan by force within five years. Zeihan has said repeatedly that Xi has created an environment where nobody is willing to tell him anything bad which is leading to some really bizarre decisions by people under him who think they're doing what he wants but are afraid to ask for fear of retribution. At this point I'm not sure anyone really knows what's happening over there which is scary for a nuclear armed nation with the second largest economy in the world.

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People on these boards have been erroneously predicting, with such certainty, China's collapse for years

It hasn't happened, and it won't happen anytime soon, if ever

These people impute the West's ability to withstand punishment, discomfort, economic depression, and social unrest onto China

It don't work that way.

Losing or killing millions of their own citizens is nothing to them. They don't blink an eye

---

Yeah that's just simply false. This is the same mindset that believed the Soviets would win the Cold War. The past 35 years has been a golden era for China that in the 1000 years prior they couldn't create on their own. They owe the past 35 years entirely to US created and supported globalization. The current world order allowed them to be the worlds #1 source of cheap labor but those days are over and will not return in our lifetime. In this decade China will have more retirees than workers and by 2050ish they'll have half the population they have today. Chinas days as an economic power are ending and it can't be stopped. That's pretty much the definition of collapse. I don't care how they treat their people. Bad economic policy is bad economic policy and they don't have the natural advantages to overcome it.

See the Soviet Union. Collapse and replacement of the Communist party is a possibility if enough of the population can see it as a failure.

I think that is the debate. Does china collapse due to economics, or can they command/attack their way out of it?

Captain Pablo said:

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LOYAL AG said:

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This is fascinating. We have some really smart people here saying China is likely to come apart as a unified nation in this decade yet the leader is saying he wants to take Taiwan by force within five years. Zeihan has said repeatedly that Xi has created an environment where nobody is willing to tell him anything bad which is leading to some really bizarre decisions by people under him who think they're doing what he wants but are afraid to ask for fear of retribution. At this point I'm not sure anyone really knows what's happening over there which is scary for a nuclear armed nation with the second largest economy in the world.

---

People on these boards have been erroneously predicting, with such certainty, China's collapse for years

It hasn't happened, and it won't happen anytime soon, if ever

These people impute the West's ability to withstand punishment, discomfort, economic depression, and social unrest onto China

It don't work that way.

Losing or killing millions of their own citizens is nothing to them. They don't blink an eye

---

You haven't been reading what they have been saying though outside of the headline. Xi and the CCP are not going to go out quietly. It's unlikely we will see it until it is happening just like the Fall of the Berlin Wall. Virtually NO ONE from the outside has been reporting from large sections of China since Covid. They restrict the hell out of everything and outsiders only see what they want people to see or you get some pirated messages that are generally ignored by most. Now you can assume that's because all is well in China I guess but that seems very unlikely.

China is not Russia. It is a country with a very long history of constant Civil War. I was just helping my son study for his World History lately and the chapter on China was just a great reminder of what a hostile history that place has, it's a dizzying and endless history of rulers fighting with each other for all kinds of reasons. The CCP has held that off but only because they have been able to increase standard of living. Take that away and they will lose the people and challenges will happen. They are not some big united people that love China and the CCP, not remotely. The amount of corruption there is also staggering.

As for Taiwan everyone here is talking as though it is all about what the US does to stop them. They seem to be forgetting that Taiwan has a serious military with Western weapons and F-15s that has been preparing for a defensive war for 70 years. There are multiple fortified islands in the Strait with who knows what waiting to stop attacks and outside of the main cities Taiwan is very mountainous terrain. They have a large and well trained standing army, a huge reserve, and EVERY adult male born on the island has been required to serve so the civilians know how to fight. Millions of them. They also know exactly what will happen to them if China wins, many will die and the best they can hope for is to effectively become slaves of the CCP. They will fight to the end.

Oh, and let's not forget Japan. Japan has a better Navy than China and they definitely do not want China taking Taiwan. Japan has islands almost as close as Mainland China to Taiwan too.

In the end China can absolutely take Taiwan so long as the US and Japan let them and China is fine with either going nuclear or completely destroying the island in the process. So super high risk and in order to win they will destroy the thing of value they needed. It's not like the US or the West is just going to keep trading with them either. Taiwan doesn't have natural resources, the value is the chips and manufacturing but if you destroy that to win and the West isn't going to trade with you if you do anyway what exactly is the point?

The only reason you do it is out of sheer desperation to try to rally the Chinese people in a common cause that likely fails. It's the ultimate hail mary of a regime on the edge of collapse.

Happy to hear why I am wrong though.

cbr said:

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I think that is the debate. Does china collapse due to economics, or can they command/attack their way out of it?

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I've thought for a long time that China saber rattles towards Taiwan because they need the US engaged in global trade to maintain their standard of living. Same reason they have worked so hard to corrupt our politicians. China returns to the mean without globalization and they know that, or at least I assume they know it. I don't really think they intend to try to take Taiwan and seeing how the world responded to Russia invading Ukraine probably eliminated any thoughts they did have.

MouthBQ98 said:

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We can Collapse China economically within months by blockade of petroleum, coal, food, and raw materials.

While the west leans heavily on China for strategic metals, China is utterly dependent on foreign imports for sufficient food, energy, and many raw materials. Most of that is ocean transported. China could be starved and economically crushed in short order, and they know it. They know it would be very painful for their enemies to do, but that it is a very real threat they cannot yet prevent, if ever.

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The West (including the US unfortunately) is also very vulnerable. I assume if China was backed into a corner it could wreak unbelievable havoc on our country, whether by cyber attacks against our infrastructure, sleeper terror cells which I suspect are already here thanks to our open border, or even nukes as a last resort. Vulnerability cuts both ways.

LOYAL AG said:

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This is fascinating. We have some really smart people here saying China is likely to come apart as a unified nation in this decade yet the leader is saying he wants to take Taiwan by force within five years. Zeihan has said repeatedly that Xi has created an environment where nobody is willing to tell him anything bad which is leading to some really bizarre decisions by people under him who think they're doing what he wants but are afraid to ask for fear of retribution. At this point I'm not sure anyone really knows what's happening over there which is scary for a nuclear armed nation with the second largest economy in the world.

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I'll believe in the collapse of Red China when I see it with my own lyin' eyes. US policy should be that CCP is foreign enemy #1 of the USA. CCP just has most of DC bought and paid for.

People believe what they want to believe like Joe Biden poops in his pants or that Hillary Clinton smells like cabbage farts.

aezmvp said:

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Our IC has been really good about reading enemy intentions..

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I think SadamHussein stashed his WMD in Taiwan.

newbie11 said:

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Central Committee said:

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The U.S. should massively ramp up production of AA missile batteries, harpoon antiship missiles, and anti-tank/anti-armor ordinance and deliver to Taiwan. Throw in some anti-ship mines and a few attack subs.

There is no way the U.S. can successfully defend Taiwan against overwhelming Chinese forces, but we can make it very, very expensive for them like we have with Russia and Ukraine.

The difference is that China is much more formidable than Russia is.

---

If China wants Taiwan and will use force, no one can stop them. Their proximity, willingness to sacrifice men (and enemy) and suppress their own peoples dissent will make it a guaranteed victory. It'll happen in the lifetime of Xi.

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Its tougher than you think. Anti-ship missiles are cheap and very effective. The Chicoms would be exposed setting ducks on the South China sea for hours. All Taiwan has to do is is stock pile the inventory and have the air defenses in places to keep the Chicom air force off the anti ship launch sites. Some subs would be a big help too. Cheaper but quiet diesel boats could be effective here.

A very risky and expensive undertaking for sure

If the CIA is saying this, then it's 100% false.

K2-HMFIC said:

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Chinese President Xi Jinping has told his military that he wants to have the capability to take control of Taiwan by force by 2027, per CIA Deputy Director David Cohen—but, he said, the IC does not currently believe that Beijing has made a decision about whether to proceed.

— Katie Bo Lillis (@KatieBoLillis) September 16, 2022

“He has not made the decision to do that, but he has asked his military to put him in a position where if that's what he wanted to do, he would be able to. It's still the assessment of the IC as a whole that Xi's interest in Taiwan is to get control through nonmilitary means.”

— Katie Bo Lillis (@KatieBoLillis) September 16, 2022

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Got it. China is planning to invade Taiwan in 5 years. They haven't decided for sure they'll do it, because they're hoping to take it another way (fake election and puppet government maybe), but if they don't have it some other way, they will just invade. Nothing to be concerned about. They're just prudently keeping their options open.