https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/worlds-largest-fertilizer-company-warns-crop-nutrient-disruptions-through-2023

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Fertilizer disruptions could be a multi-year event. Already, farmers worldwide are reducing fertilizers, which may threaten yields come harvest time. The repercussions could be huge: Lower yields may exacerbate the food crisis.

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Peter Zeihan is making regular appearances on the board now. If you believe him then it will last longer than the above article claims. To recap

• 3 types fertilizer, Nitrogen from natural gas, pot ash which is mined, and phosphate mostly from China
• China halted exports to focus on their own food problems and was the world's largest supplier
• Pot Ash for the world mostly comes from Russia and Belarus
• Nitrogen is made from natural gas which is rising in price and the distribution network isn't there to get product to places that now need a new source

It would seem that if the US took this problem seriously it would still take us at least 18 months if not longer to address the global shortage in any significant way. Canada has pot ash but not the distribution network to get it where it needs to go.

Oh this gonna be fun......

Amount of ag-grade bull**** coming from democrats ought to cover this.

Manure and compost will surely make up the difference.

DC produces enough crap to fertilize the world for years....

Was hoping these food shortages would've already started by now, been waiting since 2021. Need to lose a couple pounds before going to the beach.

Oh well, maybe two more weeks

If farmers can find it, it is too high in price. some are planting and not applying fertilizer this year.

I would guess these fertilizers are not necessarily interchangeable (you may need one kind for your land but not others). Can one of you ag types confirm?

I have also run across news of several new fertilizer plants being built around the country. I don't know when they are expected to come online.

We're definitely going to need a president who is great at negotiating deals to get us out of this mess.

TexAgs91 said:

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We're definitely going to need a president who is great at negotiating deals to get us out of this mess.

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There's negotiating deals, then there's negotiating good deals. And good for whom.

type and amount of fertilizer you use depends on what you are planting and what the soil is deficent of, as per taking soil samples and sending it off to a lab.

mustang1234 said:

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If farmers can find it, it is too high in price. some are planting and not applying fertilizer this year.

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Correct.

Thanks CMs. Your vote elected an inept govt that will starve thousands of people to death worldwide. Sleep well.

Buck Turgidson said:

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I would guess these fertilizers are not necessarily interchangeable (you may need one kind for your land but not others). Can one of you ag types confirm?

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Absolutely. Soil testing is certainly in order to see exactly what is lacking. Many soils in Texas have more than adequate potassium. Few ever have enough natural phosphorus. Nitrogen is almost always the most limiting factor.

fixer said:

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Amount of ag-grade bull**** coming from democrats ought to cover this.

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Yep, they make this look like a little ant mound.

torrid said:

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TexAgs91 said:

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We're definitely going to need a president who is great at negotiating deals to get us out of this mess.

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There's negotiating deals, then there's negotiating good deals. And good for whom.

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Yeah, what a concept!

Can someone explain the downsides of no till and or cover crop farming to the non farmer? Seems like you'd have less output per acre but less outside inputs in terms of foreign imported resources?

Fertilizer is another place where O&G inputs are never considered by the average Dimokrat

FJB. anti oil a-hole.

fertilizer comes from oil, libs!

moses1084ever said:

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Can someone explain the downsides of no till and or cover crop farming to the non farmer? Seems like you'd have less output per acre but less outside inputs in terms of foreign imported resources?

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I'll hit the high points, but this would take pages to explain…..

Expensive equipment (planters have to be able to handle all the "trash")
Completely different fertilizer application (can't till it in)
Weed control is an issue (no "steel" for weed control)
Cover crops are now running $60-70 an acre to plant and kill.
Cover crops do not manufacture fertilizer, and neither does no till. While legumes do add nitrogen, the tonnage made in a cover crop simply won't make enough N for most crops.
Cover crops suck moisture from the profile. In wet areas, not a problem. For most of Texas, screw that.
No-till doesn't mesh with all crops - especially veggies on a large scale.

EDIT: Where it works, it works well. It's just not for everybody.

Pepaw gonna send errebody in America a compost bin.

Apartment/condo dwellers get a counter top bin.

Don't worry, the Regime thinks that we can just all go Organic now and use manure! This is a good thing!

Thread about Samantha Power insanity

...in abundance!

Romello said:

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Thanks CMs. Your vote elected an inept govt that will starve millions of people to death worldwide. Sleep well.

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FIFY

I hope the Haney test becomes more utilized. May not meet as much fertilizer as you think.

I think some do understand and want millions if not billions of people erased from the planet ASAP. What could be greener?

But these same people also are unhappy that the "wrong" people are starving to death and not the "right" people.

But they will take it as a half win.

Maybe this can counter some of the fertilizer issues

Bidens leg hairs said:

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I hope the Haney test becomes more utilized. May not meet as much fertilizer as you think.

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The Haney test has some definite weak points, mainly that it assumes too much with the "pool" it tries to tap for nutrients.

Whatever. We can just use the Bloomberg farming method: You dig a hole, you put a seed in, you put dirt on top, add water, up comes the corn.

Feed yards are cleaning up

I don't post much here but I work in the fertilizer industry and wanted to give y'all a little background. Currently we are not experiencing any supply disruptions in fertilizer in the Southern US.

Much like the meat packing industry, US fertilizer production is really controlled by a handful of companies.
Nitrogen: CF, Koch
Phosphate: Mosaic
Potash: Nutien (formerly Potash Corp), Intrepid
There are other players but the above are the 800lb gorillas

In 2020 Mosaic filed a countervailing suit with the Dept of Commerce alleging phosphate producers in Russia and Morocco were dumping product in the US. In February of 21 the Dept of Commerce ruled in their favor and issued duties on Russian and Moroccan phosphates effectively ending our supply of cheap imports. This immediately caused US phosphate prices to skyrocket.

This past July CF followed Mosaic's lead and filed a countervailing suit accusing Russia and Trinidad and Tobago of dumping nitrogen products in the US. While this hasn't been finalized yet it did cause fall nitrogen pricing to increase significantly just based on fear. That followed by increases in natural gas and the prospect of $6 corn led to near record high nitrogen prices this winter. However, the nitrogen market calmed a bit and actually retreated considerably prior to the Russian invasion. CF threatened to start exporting nitrogen if the US price fell further, but after the invasion Russian nitrogen imports at any price effectively disappeared and China announced it would not export nitrogen so the market responded with another surge in pricing. It is currently easing down as drought/excessive rain (depending on where you are) have created doubts about planted corn/cotton acres.

All of that to say. We have enough fertilizer in the US, domestic producers have made moves to limit imports, other countries are limiting exports and of course there is some good old fashioned profit taking due to an increase in commodity prices.

It's the same old story for farmers, despite high commodity prices inputs are up and in the end good producers will make a little money, some will break even and some will lose.

Politically, we in the industry knew before the 20 presidential election that Mosaic would win their suit and unless the commodity groups lobby extremely hard it seems CF will win theirs. So it's kinda hard to say either administration has helped that situation. I'm sure Biden's energy policy didn't help NG pricing but even with higher gas prices, urea only costs about 200/ton to produce domestically.

This isn't a couple of years problem. This is a problem that will last the rest of our lives, because governments are scared of those that scream the loudest about fossil fuels and their belief in anthropogenic climate change. We are in for long-term misery, however you want to define it. I will define it as everything gets expensive.

mustang1234 said:

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If farmers can find it, it is too high in price. some are planting and not applying fertilizer this year.

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Oh come on....yes, the price is high but we are not planting without fertilizer.