Increases in COVID-19 infxns unrelated to levels of vaccination across populations

2,635 Views | 17 Replies | Last: 3 yr ago by Belton Ag
abram97
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
8:33p, 10/6/21
AG
Increases in COVID-19 are unrelated to levels of vaccination across 68 countries and 2947 counties in the United States.

Some high points of the article...

"Of the top 5 counties that have the highest percentage of population fully vaccinated (99.984.3%), the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) identifies 4 of them as "High" Transmission counties. Chattahoochee (Georgia), McKinley (New Mexico), and Arecibo (Puerto Rico) counties have above 90% of their population fully vaccinated with all three being classified as "High" transmission.

Conversely, of the 57 counties that have been classified as "low" transmission counties by the CDC, 26.3% (15) have percentage of population fully vaccinated below 20%."


"...in a report released from the Ministry of Health in Israel, the effectiveness of 2 doses of the BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) vaccine against preventing COVID-19 infection was reported to be 39% [6], substantially lower than the trial efficacy of 96% [7]. It is also emerging that immunity derived from the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine may not be as strong as immunity acquired through recovery from the COVID-19 virus [8]. A substantial decline in immunity from mRNA vaccines 6-months post immunization has also been reported [9]. Even though vaccinations offers protection to individuals against severe hospitalization and death, the CDC reported an increase from 0.01 to 9% and 0 to 15.1% (between January to May 2021) in the rates of hospitalizations and deaths, respectively, amongst the fully vaccinated [10]."

...Those numbers people love to quote about vaccinated people not getting hospitalized as much or dying - the worm seems to be turning. Perhaps we should have studied this a bit more and taken more time with it.

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10654-021-00808-7

No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
Reply Quote
19
1 edit
Old Buffalo
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
8:34p, 10/6/21
AG
I know you're a doctor and you've provided a scientific paper to support your claim, but can you please provide actual proof?

/F84
“The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.”
Reply Quote
34
Pookers
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to abram97 • 8:35p, 10/6/21
AG
abram97 said:
Increases in COVID-19 are unrelated to levels of vaccination across 68 countries and 2947 counties in the United States.

Some high points of the article...

"Of the top 5 counties that have the highest percentage of population fully vaccinated (99.984.3%), the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) identifies 4 of them as "High" Transmission counties. Chattahoochee (Georgia), McKinley (New Mexico), and Arecibo (Puerto Rico) counties have above 90% of their population fully vaccinated with all three being classified as "High" transmission.

Conversely, of the 57 counties that have been classified as "low" transmission counties by the CDC, 26.3% (15) have percentage of population fully vaccinated below 20%."


"...in a report released from the Ministry of Health in Israel, the effectiveness of 2 doses of the BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) vaccine against preventing COVID-19 infection was reported to be 39% [6], substantially lower than the trial efficacy of 96% [7]. It is also emerging that immunity derived from the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine may not be as strong as immunity acquired through recovery from the COVID-19 virus [8]. A substantial decline in immunity from mRNA vaccines 6-months post immunization has also been reported [9]. Even though vaccinations offers protection to individuals against severe hospitalization and death, the CDC reported an increase from 0.01 to 9% and 0 to 15.1% (between January to May 2021) in the rates of hospitalizations and deaths, respectively, amongst the fully vaccinated [10]."

...Those numbers people love to quote about vaccinated people not getting hospitalized as much or dying - the worm seems to be turning. Perhaps we should have studied this a bit more and taken more time with it.

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10654-021-00808-7

All the more reason why if you've not gotten one of the Fauci Juices yet you should continue to abstain. They have a short time to force mandates before the whole damn narrative blows up.
Reply Quote
21
General Omar
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
8:36p, 10/6/21
Great article...thank you for posting this.
General Omar '79
Reply Quote
10
Fishing Fools
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
8:45p, 10/6/21
Wife and I still be clean and free from slavery.
Reply Quote
16
ProgN
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to abram97 • 8:46p, 10/6/21
Thanks for posting this. I'll never take this vaccine because the risks far surpass the benefit for me.

I'm currently on day 4 of having Covid (Delta). I received Regeneron's monoclonal antibody treatment yesterday at 8 am. The doc told me it would be rough, and he was right, but that I'd feel fine afterwards. He was right again. I feel like I did before I was infected and only have an occasional cough. I know I'm still contagious and not cured, but I feel great. The Regeneron treatment is miraculous in my book.
Reply Quote
17
WolfCall
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
8:46p, 10/6/21
AG
A few journal articles since mid-September regarding Myocarditis as a sequelae to Covid vaccination.

Quote:
1. Myocarditis after Covid-19 Vaccination in a Large Health Care Organization.
Witberg G, Barda N, Hoss S, Richter I, Wiessman M, Aviv Y, Grinberg T, Auster O, Dagan N, Balicer RD, Kornowski R. N Engl J Med. 2021 Oct 6. doi: 10.1056/NEJMoa2110737. Online ahead of print.
PMID: 34614329

2. A Report on Myocarditis Adverse Events in the U.S. Vaccine Adverse Events Reporting System (VAERS) in Association with COVID-19 Injectable Biological Products.
Rose J, McCullough PA. Curr Probl Cardiol. 2021 Sep 30:101011. doi: 10.1016/j.cpcardiol.2021.101011. Online ahead of print. PMID: 34601006 Free PMC article. Review.

3. Cardiac Manifestations of Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome in Children (MIS-C) Following COVID-19. Wu EY, Campbell MJ. Curr Cardiol Rep. 2021 Oct 1;23(11):168. doi: 10.1007/s11886-021-01602-3. PMID: 34599465 Free PMC article. Review.

4. Postmortem investigation of fatalities following vaccination with COVID-19 vaccines.
Schneider J, Sottmann L, Greinacher A, Hagen M, Kasper HU, Kuhnen C, Schlepper S, Schmidt S, Schulz R, Thiele T, Thomas C, Schmeling A. Int J Legal Med. 2021 Sep 30:1-11.doi:10.1007/s00414-021-02706-9. Online ahead of print. PMID: 34591186 Free PMC article.

5. Acute Myopericarditis after COVID-19 Vaccine in Teenagers.
Ambati S, Colon M, Mihic M, Sanchez J, Bakar A.
Case Rep Cardiol. 2021 Sep 20;2021:8268755. doi: 10.1155/2021/8268755. eCollection 2021.nPMID: 34589238 Free PMC article.

6. Acute Myocardial Infarction and Myocarditis following COVID-19 Vaccination.
Aye YN, Mai AS, Zhang A, Lim OZH, Lin N, Ng CH, Chan MY, Yip J, Loh PH, Chew NWS.
QJM. 2021 Sep 29:hcab252. doi: 10.1093/qjmed/hcab252. Online ahead of print. PMID: 34586408
I voted for this because I like Mean Tweets!
Reply Quote
3
cisgenderedAggie
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to abram97 • 8:48p, 10/6/21
abram97 said:
Increases in COVID-19 are unrelated to levels of vaccination across 68 countries and 2947 counties in the United States.

Some high points of the article...

"Of the top 5 counties that have the highest percentage of population fully vaccinated (99.984.3%), the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) identifies 4 of them as "High" Transmission counties. Chattahoochee (Georgia), McKinley (New Mexico), and Arecibo (Puerto Rico) counties have above 90% of their population fully vaccinated with all three being classified as "High" transmission.

Conversely, of the 57 counties that have been classified as "low" transmission counties by the CDC, 26.3% (15) have percentage of population fully vaccinated below 20%."


"...in a report released from the Ministry of Health in Israel, the effectiveness of 2 doses of the BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) vaccine against preventing COVID-19 infection was reported to be 39% [6], substantially lower than the trial efficacy of 96% [7]. It is also emerging that immunity derived from the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine may not be as strong as immunity acquired through recovery from the COVID-19 virus [8]. A substantial decline in immunity from mRNA vaccines 6-months post immunization has also been reported [9]. Even though vaccinations offers protection to individuals against severe hospitalization and death, the CDC reported an increase from 0.01 to 9% and 0 to 15.1% (between January to May 2021) in the rates of hospitalizations and deaths, respectively, amongst the fully vaccinated [10]."

...Those numbers people love to quote about vaccinated people not getting hospitalized as much or dying - the worm seems to be turning. Perhaps we should have studied this a bit more and taken more time with it.

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10654-021-00808-7



I think the bolded statement is a bit misleading. The citation is a slide deck (slide 3).

https://fm.cnbc.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/editorialfiles/2021/07/30/CDC_slides.pdf

That's not a rate of hospitalization and death in vaccinated people. It's a proportion of hospitalized and deaths that are vaccinated. It's not saying that 15% of breakthrough cases end up hospitalized. That's within the context of a massive increase in the number of Americans that were vaccinated between January and May. The populations aren't the same at the start and stop.

I do agree with the overall sentiment though. The vaccines aren't something that should be used to stigmatize people.
Reply Quote
3
CondensedFogAggie
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
8:55p, 10/6/21
What a terrible paper

It's one week of data (Aug 26 to Sep 2) compared to the previous 7 days (Aug 18 to 25). So "no relationship over a single week over week period" is a more accurate framing. Looking at rates this late in the pandemic is a bad metric under any set of conditions, since the standard model of population infection says that, for R_t>1 the higher R_t is, the earlier your epidemic is over.

They also compared infection rate differences across different counties, which all have vastly different cultures and policies. For example, this does not even attempt to characterize mitigation efforts: Israel got rid of nearly all restrictions before delta hit, the same cannot be said for many unvaccinated countries.

These type of unconditional mean comparisons are done holding all else constant. If we know there is non-equivalency of the underlying factors, holding stuff constant is a useless exercise.

Tamu has a world class stats department, perhaps they can teach some basic stats to these authors.

Of course, those on Twitter and Facebook with zero knowledge of stats won't read nor understand this papers fallacies and just spread it.
Reply Quote
10
lb3
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
9:32p, 10/6/21
AG
Here is the graph from the article showing that places with higher vaccination rates actually have higher infection rates.
Reply Quote
7
TAMUallen
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
9:34p, 10/6/21
AG
Get vaxxed, catch covid
Reply Quote
7
ProgN
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to lb3 • 9:37p, 10/6/21
SHHHH, don't spook the covidian. If he accidentally sees his shadow then we'll get 6 more years of fear porn.
Reply Quote
18
SociallyConditionedAg
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
5:25a, 10/7/21
AG
The spike protein, which causes blood coagulation, is also the basis for the shots. Why would anyone think that's a good idea?
Reply Quote
8
1 edit
MouthBQ98
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to SociallyConditionedAg • 8:45a, 10/7/21
AG
I wonder if they screw up and put the vaccine directly into a vein, such that it gets rapid widespread distribution in the body instead of a more gradual dispersion from the point of injection, if that causes a burst of replication or immune activity that is too intense?
Reply Quote
1
jpb1999
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to ProgN • 9:26a, 10/7/21
AG
ProgN said:
Thanks for posting this. I'll never take this vaccine because the risks far surpass the benefit for me.

I'm currently on day 4 of having Covid (Delta). I received Regeneron's monoclonal antibody treatment yesterday at 8 am. The doc told me it would be rough, and he was right, but that I'd feel fine afterwards. He was right again. I feel like I did before I was infected and only have an occasional cough. I know I'm still contagious and not cured, but I feel great. The Regeneron treatment is miraculous in my book.
How and where did you get the Regeneron treatment? Did you have any risk factors to allow you to get it? If and when I get Covid I would like to take it, but worried I will not be able to for some reason.
_________________________________________

Spane Bohem


Reply Quote
ProgN
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to jpb1999 • 9:35a, 10/7/21
My GP gave the referral. I'm 49 and have slightly high blood pressure but that's it. I wasn't going to take it if they had limited supplies because I wouldn't want to take it and an elderly person be denied, but he assured me they had plenty. The hospital works off referrals only now because a couple tried to come in a month or so ago and get the Regeneron treatment because they were going on a cruise and didn't want to catch covid. They were not infected with covid and caused a scene when they were escorted out of the hospital. They just didn't want a repeat scenario, so now Regeneron appointments can only be made by the doctor. If you request it, I'm confident you'd be approved for it.
Reply Quote
NASAg03
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to CondensedFogAggie • 9:49a, 10/7/21
CondensedFoggyAggie said:
What a terrible paper

It's one week of data (Aug 26 to Sep 2) compared to the previous 7 days (Aug 18 to 25). So "no relationship over a single week over week period" is a more accurate framing. Looking at rates this late in the pandemic is a bad metric under any set of conditions, since the standard model of population infection says that, for R_t>1 the higher R_t is, the earlier your epidemic is over.

They also compared infection rate differences across different counties, which all have vastly different cultures and policies. For example, this does not even attempt to characterize mitigation efforts: Israel got rid of nearly all restrictions before delta hit, the same cannot be said for many unvaccinated countries.

These type of unconditional mean comparisons are done holding all else constant. If we know there is non-equivalency of the underlying factors, holding stuff constant is a useless exercise.

Tamu has a world class stats department, perhaps they can teach some basic stats to these authors.

Of course, those on Twitter and Facebook with zero knowledge of stats won't read nor understand this papers fallacies and just spread it.


Sorry your vaccine lost...
Reply Quote
10
SociallyConditionedAg
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to MouthBQ98 • 1:58p, 10/7/21
AG
MouthBQ98 said:
I wonder if they screw up and put the vaccine directly into a vein, such that it gets rapid widespread distribution in the body instead of a more gradual dispersion from the point of injection, if that causes a burst of replication or immune activity that is too intense?

I read about that possibility recently and it was theorized that some of the bad reactions are due to that. Why won't they investigate?
Reply Quote
Belton Ag
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
10:12a, 10/8/21
AG
If the vaccines don't work as well as we'd hoped then that actually plays right into the hands of the people in charge of Washington and the blue states. It just gives them more excuses to continue endless lockdowns, mask mandates and "social distancing" measures. None of which actually prevent the transmission of Covid.
Reply Quote
Refresh
Page 1 of 1
 
×
subscribe Verify your student status
See Subscription Benefits
Trial only available to users who have never subscribed or participated in a previous trial.