Since more people need to see it, evidence of voter fraud

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SLAM
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12:34p, 11/5/20
Benford's law

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benford's_law

This statistical distribution can be used to discover all sorts of real world datasets to see if they are fake or real. It's been used in elections in the past and in the financial world.



https://boards.4chan.org/pol/thread/287767231

Quote:
These data are from Milwaukee's various wards. Trump vote totals conform rather well to Benford's law, one of the first things you'd check in trying to determine whether there was fraud. Biden's fail miserably, and, what's more, the frequencies of leading digits for him are virtually symmetric about 5: exactly what you get if these were faked by those ignorant of Benford's law, and wanting to manufacture "average" looking numbers, those that begin with 4,5, or 6.

False debunkings:

>those not understanding the difference between sufficient and necessary conditions

There are plenty of kinds of data sets that are pretty much guaranteed to follow Benford's law. Even if votes in wards aren't one of those kinds, it doesn't mean this isn't anomalous.

>experts say this is useless when it comes to elections

Some do. Some say the opposite. Also, this isn't just a failure of Benford's law, it's a specific kind of failure (symmetric about 5) in an area where voter fraud is already expected.

>there are anomalous results in Trump's favor

Show me one that looks like this, and not like random "noisy" failure, and where voter fraud is already suspected.


Trump's votes follow the distribution while Biden's do not.


Biden's vote distribution looks worse than Enron's Financials.


Another comparison between Trump and Biden



Edit - Here is a rigged Iranian election for comparison.

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GE
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12:40p, 11/5/20
AG
What is the "tally" number that the first digit thing is referring to?
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ANSC Ag
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12:44p, 11/5/20
SLAM
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12:50p, 11/5/20
Bump, this cannot be allowed to fade away.




Edit - here is the source code if you want to check for yourself

https://pastebin.com/YKFyKtbc

Our very own Fooz has confirmed it's legit.

Edit 2 - picture of the original twitter thread when it gets deleted by twitter

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UntoldSpirit
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12:53p, 11/5/20
AG
There's no evidence of fraud until CNN and MSNBC say there is evidence. We know this already and its been proven time after time.

There was no evidence the Obama Administration spied on the Trump campaign. CNN said so.

There was no evidence Joe Biden did anything wrong when Hunter took foreign money for jobs in which he had no qualifications. Joe is on tape bragging about getting a foreign government's prosecutor fired that wanted to investigate Hunter's employer. CNN said there was no evidence. Nothing there.

Hunter's laptop. Sorry, CNN said it can't be verified. Despite multiple witnesses, digital records, and an FBI investigation, it isn't verifiable and it is disinformation, so says CNN and MSNBC.

As long as the MSM holds the line, and says "there is no evidence of voter fraud", then for half of the country, there is no evidence, regardless of the evidence.

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Cinco Ranch Aggie
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12:53p, 11/5/20
AG
/F16 libs
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Canyon99
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12:54p, 11/5/20
AG
Ttt
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AAggie
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12:55p, 11/5/20
wHeReS yOuR pRooF- Braindead Zombie
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Waffledynamics
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12:56p, 11/5/20
AG
I've talked with someone who literally saw nothing wrong with SIX FIGURE NUMBERS of ballots all being Biden in one batch.

That is so statistically improbable it may as well be impossible. These people are unbelievable.
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LatinAggie1997
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12:59p, 11/5/20
AG
Can they graph the increase in Biden votes with each batch/drop and include the down ballot increases in those races...or is it only rhe presidential numbers changing with new ballots?
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fooz
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In reply to SLAM • 1:01p, 11/5/20
Here's the source code if you want to add tp OP.

https://pastebin.com/YKFyKtbc
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SLAM
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In reply to fooz • 1:03p, 11/5/20
fooz said:
Here's the source code if you want to add tp OP.

https://pastebin.com/YKFyKtbc


Done
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aggiehawg
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1:04p, 11/5/20
AG


FWIW.
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TravelAg2004
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In reply to GE • 1:05p, 11/5/20
AG
GE said:
What is the "tally" number that the first digit thing is referring to?
It's the count for each ward/precinct.

Essentially, they are taking a large data set (the total votes in each precinct/ward) and seeing what the distribution of the first number is. So if Ward 1 has 1980 votes, the talley is 1980 and they put a tick in the 1 column. If another ward had 875 total votes, they would put a tick in the 8 column. They do that for each ward/precinct and get a total count of each digit 1-9.

Then you graph that and would expect a curve where 1 is the highest and it drops to 9 if the data is truly random.

What they are asserting is the data/votes have been manipulated because they don't follow that trend.
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dmart90
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1:15p, 11/5/20
AG
Got to meet Professor Benford at a conference once. His presentation was awesome. It's quite useful at finding people that are stealing or cheating. I can see how it could be used here effectively.
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AgFormerlyInIrving
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1:16p, 11/5/20
AG
Biden says this was debunked at the same time Hunter/Ukraine stuff was debunked.

Then he went back to looking through his feces for a pencil.
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Gig em G
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1:25p, 11/5/20
AG
Unfortunately I don't trust...where's the underlying data? The data on the backend can be manipulated however they want it to look.

And if it's posted on 4chan then forget it. Not looking around there
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aggiez03
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In reply to aggiehawg • 1:28p, 11/5/20
AG
aggiehawg said:


FWIW.
This has to be a statistical anomaly...

You are trusting a random tweet...

Won't believe it till I see it on CNN...

All libs on F16
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_mpaul
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1:31p, 11/5/20
AG
Very interesting. Even if they end up giving it to Biden, there should be more than enough ammo to attempt to neuter the effectiveness of Biden or Harris over the next four years, exactly like they tried to do to Trump.
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SLAM
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In reply to Gig em G • 1:34p, 11/5/20
Gig em G said:
Unfortunately I don't trust...where's the underlying data? The data on the backend can be manipulated however they want it to look.

And if it's posted on 4chan then forget it. Not looking around there


It was originally posted on Twitter, the 4chan thread just has additional data. The original twitter thread is in the OP.
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mazag08
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In reply to _mpaul • 1:35p, 11/5/20
AG
_mpaul said:
Very interesting. Even if they end up giving it Biden, there should be more than enough ammo to attempt to neuter the effectiveness of Biden or Harris over the next four years, exactly like they tried to do to Trump.
That's fine. Biden is still going to get us back into the Paris Climate Accords, nueter Trump's trade agreements, sign executive orders (Republican judges don't play team red like Hawaii does), and be in power during the next election where fraud is now enabled and celebrated.
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Keegan99
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In reply to aggiehawg • 1:36p, 11/5/20
AG
For comparison, here is 2016 in PA.

There is SOME undervote on Senate, but nothing like 2020.


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SLAM
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In reply to _mpaul • 1:36p, 11/5/20
_mpaul said:
Very interesting. Even if they end up giving it Biden, there should be more than enough ammo to attempt to neuter the effectiveness of Biden or Harris over the next four years, exactly like they tried to do to Trump.


This is enough to invalidate the entire election. It's huge.
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FIDO95
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1:38p, 11/5/20
AG
Is Raquel Rodriguez in jail? Has she be indicted?

If nothing happens to someone who admits to committing voter fraud, then nothing is going to happen to those who deny being involved.

This is really no different then the abandoned building parable. If a broken window goes unrepaired, someone is more likely to break out another window then if all the windows were intact. The problem gets exponentially worse the more windows that are left in disrepair.

If we want a civil society, we have to be a nation of rules and laws. Allowing little instances of fraud to go unchecked, has allowed for, or at least the suspicion of, more widespread fraud. Has there been enough fraud to turn the election? We will never know. It matters not. The fact of the matter is that everyone has lost faith in the rules and laws and we are on the verge of losing a civil society.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
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Gaw617
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1:38p, 11/5/20
There is so much fraud but how do you prove it? Once those fraudulent ballots are counted how do you get them out of the tally? I just don't see how you fix this. To make it worse now that Democrats know they can get away with it the fraud will only increase in future elections.
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StrikeWater00
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1:38p, 11/5/20
AG
Looks like Benford's is often applied to 2nd digit, not first. Also appears Benford's is not exactly the best application:

https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/206427437.pdf
https://www.degruyter.com/view/journals/jbnst/231/5-6/article-p719.xml

Food for thought...
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SLAM
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1:40p, 11/5/20


Another dataset of a Benford law violation.
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_mpaul
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In reply to SLAM • 1:41p, 11/5/20
AG
SLAM said:
_mpaul said:
Very interesting. Even if they end up giving it to Biden, there should be more than enough ammo to attempt to neuter the effectiveness of Biden or Harris over the next four years, exactly like they tried to do to Trump.
This is enough to invalidate the entire election. It's huge.
I think its indicia of mischief, no doubt. The problem is our legal system is not really set up to provide that kind of remedy. Nor is it particularly set up to provide ANY remedy quickly.
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bmks270
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1:43p, 11/5/20
AG
Is election data comparable to financial transaction data?
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Eso si, Que es
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In reply to SLAM • 1:45p, 11/5/20
SLAM said:


Another dataset of a Benford law violation.
Zero occurrences of his vote total ending in 69



Kamala disapproves
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SLAM
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In reply to bmks270 • 1:46p, 11/5/20
bmks270 said:
Is election data comparable to financial transaction data?


They are both common datasets used for distributions so yes.
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_mpaul
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In reply to mazag08 • 1:47p, 11/5/20
AG
mazag08 said:
_mpaul said:
Very interesting. Even if they end up giving it Biden, there should be more than enough ammo to attempt to neuter the effectiveness of Biden or Harris over the next four years, exactly like they tried to do to Trump.
That's fine. Biden is still going to get us back into the Paris Climate Accords, neuter Trump's trade agreements, sign executive orders (Republican judges don't play team red like Hawaii does), and be in power during the next election where fraud is now enabled and celebrated.
Yeah, if only the Republicans would have taken the initiative to restrain the jurisdiction of courts to issue nationwide injunctions when they had the legislature in 2017-2018. Unfortunately, they were too busy stroking each other about how great and wonderful they were.

By the way, if I'm the President, I take the position that the courts don't have any authority to enjoin the executive branch as a coequal branch of government--and certainly not nationally. What are the courts going to do ? Send over their police force? And just to be clear, I love the federal courts. Not sarcasm.
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F2Aggie
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In reply to TravelAg2004 • 1:47p, 11/5/20
AG
TravelAg2004 said:
GE said:
What is the "tally" number that the first digit thing is referring to?
It's the count for each ward/precinct.

Essentially, they are taking a large data set (the total votes in each precinct/ward) and seeing what the distribution of the first number is. So if Ward 1 has 1980 votes, the talley is 1980 and they put a tick in the 1 column. If another ward had 875 total votes, they would put a tick in the 8 column. They do that for each ward/precinct and get a total count of each digit 1-9.

Then you graph that and would expect a curve where 1 is the highest and it drops to 9 if the data is truly random.

What they are asserting is the data/votes have been manipulated because they don't follow that trend.
Thank you for the explanation. Have read up on it some. In the video I watched he stated the first example was population of the world you could apply this theory or law, but the data must span a couple order of magnitudes.

I guess does the population of the precincts/areas span enough orders of magnitudes(dividing it) for this law to apply?



https://datatodisplay.com/blog/politics/benfords-law-elections-1/
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fooz
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In reply to Gig em G • 1:48p, 11/5/20
Gig em G said:
Unfortunately I don't trust...where's the underlying data? The data on the backend can be manipulated however they want it to look.

And if it's posted on 4chan then forget it. Not looking around there
The source code was posted. Stop being so dense my man!
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AccountantAg
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1:48p, 11/5/20
AG
I don't understand this, can someone do a benford law for dummies explanation?

Why would a 1 be the most common number?
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