It’s early, but as the great Texan Kenny Rogers once said, “You’ve got to know when to hold ‘em, know when to fold ‘em.”
The same premise that applies to the poker table can also be applied to preseason takes. Sometimes, you have to fork over a bad hand/take and move on to the next one. It happens.
It happens often in the SEC where a preseason take can look doomed just a few weeks into the season. Now that everyone in the SEC has faced at least one Power Conference foe — something that can’t be said in the Big Ten — we can have some actual takeaways based on what we’ve seen.
I’m bailing on these seven SEC takes before the last weekend of September:
7. Alabama didn’t do enough to change its historically bad run game
Why I’m bailing — The Crimson Tide had the worst rushing attack in program history in 2025. The offseason answers included keeping Ryan Grubb as offensive coordinator, starting over on the offensive line (with less experience) and losing its lone Power Conference running back transfer commit (Hollywood Smothers) to Texas. So no, I didn’t expect Alabama to turn things around up front.
Through three games — two of which were against Power Conference competition — Alabama has doubled its rushing yards/game average. The ground attack is averaging 5.0 yards per carry (3.35 last year) and has already posted more games of 150 rushing yards vs. Power Conference competition (2) than it did all of last year. If Alabama is going to continue to put up 210 yards/game on the ground with a versatile, well-balanced attack to support emerging first-year starter Keelon Russell, look out. That team will stay in the SEC title hunt.
6. Byrum Brown, Marcel Reed and John Mateer are better than Kamario Taylor
Why I’m bailing — To be clear, I had Taylor ranked No. 10 among SEC quarterbacks entering the season with the full expectation that he’d rise on the list. In my defense, this was someone who faced a pressure rate of 47 percent last year, and his pocket presence hadn’t been on display yet. He had only converted one third-and-10 or longer entering 2026, and he had yet to win a start at the college level in limited action as a freshman last year.
My goodness, how things have changed. Taylor has Mississippi State off to a 3-0 start with a pair of dazzling showings in true road games against respected foes. The arm strength, the touch on the deep ball, the understanding of the offense, the pocket presence … it’s all there. I mean, he’s averaging 19.2 yards/pass attempt under pressure with a perfect NFL QB rating (158.3) in those spots. He’s been beyond even the wildest expectations that started to follow him post-Manning Passing Academy. There’s no question that he’s been a much better, more dynamic player than those three veteran signal-callers, all of whom already had tough showings in losing efforts.
The better question is whether Taylor is going to stay in the Heisman Trophy discussion throughout the 2026 season. He’s firmly there just three games into his blistering start.
5. Kentucky will win three games in Year 1 of the Will Stein era
Why I’m bailing — UK is a win vs. South Alabama away from matching my projected season-long total, so yeah, we’re punting on that one. I almost wanted to bail on this take after Stein’s first half of SEC play when he had Alabama on the ropes early. Then the second half happened, and we were reminded that UK’s attempt at pulling a total 180 would be an uphill climb.
But after seeing what the Wildcats did at Kyle Field, we need to go there. If former Texas A&M defensive coordinator Jay Bateman is going to post showings like that in SEC play, UK will be a whole lot friskier than I expected. Flustering SEC offenses like he did for roughly six of his first eight quarters of conference play bodes well for Year 1. If CJ Baxter can stay healthy behind that expensive Big Blue Wall (that’s what they call the offensive line), Kentucky will have a Year 1 identity that'll be felt throughout SEC play.
4. Aaron Philo will struggle against pressure as Florida’s QB1
Why I’m bailing — This was based on watching Philo in those spots at Georgia Tech and seeing some mechanical issues. All Philo has done through three games at Florida is post the best adjusted completion percentage under pressure (91.7%) among all Power Conference quarterbacks (min. 10 pressured drop-backs). Not too shabby. And sure, Philo had the benefit of Buster Faulkner’s system, which he’s now entering Year 3 in, having spent the previous two as Haynes King’s backup at Georgia Tech. But to do that when the bullets are flying is a different beast.
Philo has had exceptional surroundings so far. On top of having perhaps the best running back in the sport in Jadan Baugh, he’s got a group of pass-catchers who have been reliable and dynamic after the catch. It also helped that Philo has only been pressured on 26.4 percent of his drop-backs, and that resulted in just three sacks taken. Everything about Philo’s start screams “on schedule.” That’s as good as the Gators could’ve hoped for from their new QB1.
3. Isiah Canion will be SEC Offensive Newcomer of the Year
Why I’m bailing — A couple of things on this. One is that I’m still a believer in Canion as a player. If and when he gets an opportunity at the next level, I do believe that the former Georgia Tech transfer will show that he’s a pro receiver. I won’t bail on that belief at this point.
But I’m bailing on this preseason prediction for multiple reasons. One is that he’s got just three catches for 28 yards through three games, and he now enters late September with a leg injury that he suffered in the SEC opener against Arkansas. That timing couldn’t be worse. Gunner Stockton has been phenomenal so far, but he’s also still trying to establish a rapport with all of these new receivers, including Canion.
The other issue is that Canion is playing in an offense that’s been able to run the ball at will. While that competition will inevitably ramp up beginning this weekend against Oklahoma, Georgia might be able to have a very 2021- 22-like approach with the low passing volume. That could put a lower ceiling on Canion’s ability to become a breakout player.
2. Oklahoma will beat both Georgia and Texas
Why I’m bailing — The weird thing is that I picked Oklahoma to start 2-1 with a loss at Michigan, so the Sooners are in the exact spot that I projected in July. Oklahoma even has the No. 4 scoring defense in America heading into Week 4. Then why bail this soon?
How do I say this kindly … I’m bailing because I’ve watched the Oklahoma offense. I watched it score 14 points against New Mexico, wherein the Sooners didn’t score a second touchdown until the third quarter, when John Mateer was only made aware that Isaiah Sategna was open downfield because the crowd told him so. That’s not ideal. It’s also not ideal that Oklahoma is No. 123 in FBS in rushing yards/game with an offensive line that’s already shuffling the deck. Getting Michael Fasusi back will help, but not totally fix those woes.
We heard all offseason that Mateer was jacked and healthy, and that he’d soon return to his pre-Dr. Shin form that saw him race out to “Heisman Trophy favorite” status last September. Mateer might be jacked and healthy, but he looks like a guy who is completely lacking confidence ahead of a gauntlet schedule. That’s a brutal combination.
1. It will be a fourth consecutive year of the SEC failing to win a national championship
Why I’m bailing — I’m already out on my preseason national championship pick, Oregon. Yes, it’s possible that the Ducks right the ship and pull a 2024 Notre Dame, who made it to the national championship after suffering a Week 2 loss to Northern Illinois. But so far, no good in far too many phases of the game.
The Big Ten as a whole hasn’t exactly backed up its offseason of chest-puffing. On top of the Oregon stumble at Oklahoma State...
- Ohio State blew a 20-point lead at Texas
- Michigan needed an extra second to beat Western Michigan
- The defending champs, Indiana, have basically played against air
The Big Ten team that has looked best so far is USC, which is led by a coach who hasn’t won a Playoff game. The Big Ten is 4-9 vs. other Power Conference foes, while the SEC is 10-2. Hence, the SEC has 10 teams ranked inside the AP Top 25, with three of the top four.
Is it early? Sure. For all I know, Miami or Notre Dame will prove to be the team to beat and the Big Ten-SEC debate will be moot. But after the SEC didn’t have a single preseason No. 1 vote in the AP Poll (which I didn’t push back on), it took just three weeks for the conference to suddenly look like it has several legitimate title contenders.
