SEC Round-Up: Does risk of playing in Atlanta outweigh the reward?
The reward isn’t always worth the risk.
Ole Miss football coach Lane Kiffin made that point earlier this week.
Ole Miss hasn’t won a Southeastern Conference football championship since 1963, and Kiffin apparently doesn’t want the Rebels playing for the SEC title this year.
The reward of reaching Atlanta to play for the SEC Championship isn’t worth the risk of omission from the College Football Playoff.
Six teams remain in contention for the SEC Championship Game. Four of them — Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee and, yes, Ole Miss — have two losses.
One of the others — Texas A&M (8-2, 5-1) and Texas (9-1, 5-1) — will have at least two losses because the Aggies and Longhorns play on Nov. 30.
Indeed, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that six teams could finish 6-2 in the league and tied atop the SEC standings.
In that case, the SEC will go to its convoluted tie-breaker procedures to decide which teams advance to Atlanta.
- A. Head-to-head competition among the tied teams
- B. Record vs. all common Conference opponents among the tied teams
- C. Record against highest (best) placed common Conference opponent in the Conference standings, and proceeding through the Conference standings among the tied teams
- D. Cumulative Conference winning percentage of all Conference opponents among the tied teams
- E. Capped relative total scoring margin (see Appendix A) per SportSource Analytics vs. all Conference opponents among the tied teams
- F. Random draw of the tied teams
The SEC could save time and brain cells by adding:
- “G. Teams that actually want to play for the SEC title.”
Kiffin said a lot of coaches say they’d rather not play for the conference title because that could prevent them from competing for the national championship.
“The conference championship could have a big impact both ways,” Kiffin said earlier this week. “I’ve talked to some other coaches, and the feeling is that they don't want to get in it. The reward to get a bye (in the playoffs) vs. the risk of getting knocked out completely … is a really big risk.”
Three losses likely equates to elimination from the College Football Playoff and competition for the national championship.
The loser of the SEC title game could have three losses. Therefore, a two-loss team may be better off not playing in Atlanta.
No other SEC coaches have publicly said they’d rather miss the conference championship game, but Kiffin’s probably right.
The national championship is the ultimate goal. Why make the path harder to get there by playing in a conference title game?
In 2021, Georgia lost to Alabama in the SEC Championship Game. Fortunately for the Bulldogs, who were previously unbeaten, that loss did not keep them out of the playoffs. Georgia won a rematch with Alabama for the national championship.
Competing for the SEC championship would not have been worth it had Georgia been eliminated from the playoff.
The reward wouldn't have been worth the risk.
It won't be this year, either.
Around the SEC
This week’s games: No. 15 Texas A&M at Auburn; Kentucky at No. 3 Texas; No. 23 Missouri at Mississippi State; No. 7 Alabama at Oklahoma; Vanderbilt at LSU; No. 9 Ole Miss at Florida; UMass at No. 10 Georgia; UTEP at No. 11 Tennessee; Wofford at No. 18 South Carolina; Louisiana Tech at Arkansas
Who’s hot: South Carolina quarterback LaNorris Sellers is emerging as one of the SEC’s most explosive quarterbacks. In the last three games, he has passed for 835 yards and nine touchdowns. He has also rushed for 189 yards and a score in that span.
Who’s not: Yes, Kentucky quarterbacks threw four touchdown passes last week. That was against Murray State. When facing SEC opponents, the Wildcats passing game has managed just five touchdown passes while throwing 10 interceptions. Kentucky has passed for fewer than 200 yards in its last four games vs. SEC opponents. Kentucky hasn’t reached the 200-yard mark in six of seven SEC games.
Keep an eye on: Vanderbilt’s Diego Pavia is a running quarterback. LSU has trouble with running quarterbacks. The Tigers gave up 143 rushing yards and two touchdowns to South Carolina quarterback LaNorris Sellers. They gave up 62 yards and three touchdowns to Texas A&M’s Marcel Reed. They gave up 185 yards and four touchdowns to Alabama’s Jalen Milroe. Pavia leads Vanderbilt with 628 rushing yards. Don’t be surprised if he adds significantly to that total.
The pressure is on: Oklahoma needs one more victory to secure bowl eligibility. Their final games are vs. Alabama and at LSU. If the Sooners don’t win at least one, they will be omitted from postseason play for the first time since 1998. They’re also in danger of their second losing season in three years under coach Brent Venables.
Best matchup: Florida’s offensive line has made major progress. The Gators have allowed only 13 sacks — the second-fewest in the SEC. They’ve given up just one in the last two games. They face an Ole Miss pass rush that leads the nation with 46 sacks.
