*****Big Brother 17 SPOILERS Thread*****

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RockInspector
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In reply to Bunk Moreland • 10:21a, 9/16/15
quote:
****. that sucks for John. But credit where it's due to Vanessa. Once again when she had to have a win, she got one.

She is playing one hell of a game. I think you have to cut Liz now. Time heals all wounds, and once they sit in the jury they will understand that she has played the best game. And JMAC is the one that Vanessa should want to bring to F2 without a doubt.

It's all about her strategy now. Get rid of Liz, give her a week with Austin in jury, get most likely all 3 of their votes(no way they'd vote for John over her, maybe steve if they're bitter).

I know it's going to be a tough move for her to do and she'll cry like crazy, but Liz going is the right move.
I disagree. The twins are mean, nasty, vindictive little people. Austin is bitter. Vanessa will be solely responsible for getting both Austin and Liz out of the house at this point. I think people like Meg, James and even Becky understand how well Vanessa played the game and will probably vote for her. The wounds are both fresh and deep with the Austwins. They are shallow and hurt and will campaign against her. If anyone is on the fence (Jackie and Shelli) they may be able to sway them. I believe the remainder of JM and Steve will vote for Vanessa out of respect for her game.

She may be better off taking Liz to the final two. There are just as many people in the jury that don't like the Austwins as well as Vanessa. Now she only has to deal with two sure votes against her rather than three.

This is just my opinion but here is how I think it plays out for Vanessa if she makes final two.

Vanessa - Liz = Vanessa
Vanessa - Steve = Steve
Vanessa - JM = Vanessa (but I think it is closer than people think...almost 50/50)

I also think that if she saves JM, he will win the final HoH (which leaves her odd man out). As crazy as it sounds (keeping Liz)...and as much as I want JM to stay in the game...Vanessa would be foolish to save JM right now.

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MSCAg
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10:22a, 9/16/15
AG
I'd say getting out Liz is her best shot, but I understand not wanting to take John. The reality is any HG is stupid if they take Vanessa to F2.
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RockInspector
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In reply to MSCAg • 10:29a, 9/16/15
quote:
I'd say getting out Liz is her best shot, but I understand not wanting to take John. The reality is any HG is stupid if they take Vanessa to F2.
Would love to see a final two of Steve and Johnny Mac but that is unlikely to happen.
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Bunk Moreland
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10:34a, 9/16/15
Every year people leave the house upset and bitter. But Austin isn't vindictive. If he gets a week with Liz in the jury house, all will be well. The other jury members will sit and discuss how great of a game she played.

Vanessa v Steve might be tough for her because Shelli and Austin really like Steve, Jackie always felt sorry for him, and JMac would vote for Steve to win.

Vanessa vs Liz would auto-lose Julia/Austin as 2 votes. However, I think she'd get JMac, Shelli, Jackie, Becky, Meg, James, etc. and win. But it'd be a bit harder.

Vanessa vs. JMac is easy. She'd probably sweep the votes. The twins/Austin never liked JMac, Shelli and Becky would vote for her for sure, and Meg/James will vote who played hte best game.

She could go make a deal I guess with Liz to say she'll keep her if she makes a F2 deal promise, but Liz would go back on that immediately. Same thing with John. Vanessa can't think in terms of "who would take me" and she knows that.

If it were me, i'd look at john/liz and say "who out of these 2 would give me the best chance to win the game if I'm sitting next to them?" and the answer is John. Therefore, evict Liz, and do it now so she gets a full week to let the emotions wear off.
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JeffHamilton82
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11:28a, 9/16/15
If she gets rid of Liz then she has to win HOH to make F2. If she makes a deal and keeps Liz, then she has a better shot at getting F2 regardless of who wins HOH
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Bunk Moreland
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In reply to JeffHamilton82 • 11:32a, 9/16/15
Vanessa has to win final HOH no matter what. No one is taking her, not even Liz. Surely Liz is not stupid enough to think she could beat Vanessa in a F2.

Vanessa is rocking 4 HOH wins, 3 POV wins, and is the "known" person who was "behind every single move in the house"

She will get up there and give her big campaign speech, then every question thrown at her by the jury, she will answer with an exact reason for why she did what she did, with about 20 details to justify it. She will be prepared and the jury knows that.
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The Milkman
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In reply to Bunk Moreland • 11:39a, 9/16/15
AG
quote:
Vanessa has to win final HOH no matter what. No one is taking her, not even Liz. Surely Liz is not stupid enough to think she could beat Vanessa in a F2.

Vanessa is rocking 4 HOH wins, 3 POV wins, and is the "known" person who was "behind every single move in the house"

She will get up there and give her big campaign speech, then every question thrown at her by the jury, she will answer with an exact reason for why she did what she did, with about 20 details to justify it. She will be prepared and the jury knows that.
Im not so sure. Austin seemed to truly believe that Vanessa wouldnt have jury votes by what he said to her on the way out. If Austin thinks that way, surely Liz does too.
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Lt. Joe Bookman
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In reply to The Milkman • 11:44a, 9/16/15
AG
quote:
quote:
Vanessa has to win final HOH no matter what. No one is taking her, not even Liz. Surely Liz is not stupid enough to think she could beat Vanessa in a F2.

Vanessa is rocking 4 HOH wins, 3 POV wins, and is the "known" person who was "behind every single move in the house"

She will get up there and give her big campaign speech, then every question thrown at her by the jury, she will answer with an exact reason for why she did what she did, with about 20 details to justify it. She will be prepared and the jury knows that.
Im not so sure. Austin seemed to truly believe that Vanessa wouldnt have jury votes by what he said to her on the way out. If Austin thinks that way, surely Liz does too.
Yeah, I was wondering why he kept saying that. Seems like most of the Jury will vote for her. Maybe Austin was saying that him, Julia, and Liz won't vote for her and they will campaign against her?

Austin being blindsided was funny. Not sure why he thought he was safe.
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Bunk Moreland
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In reply to The Milkman • 11:45a, 9/16/15
I know what you mean in theory, but Austin was delusional at that moment. He just got blind-sided, he literally told Julie he thought he would win the entire game. Any gameplayer worth half a **** would know Austin's "resume" in the house was by far the weakest out of anyone left.

Get Liz in jury with him to bang for a week, remove the emotions of realizing you aren't a winner, and take JMac to the final 2. Liz/Austin aren't voting for John. They'll vote for the person who was on their side the entire season because they'll realize she really did do what was best for her game. It happens virtually every year. There are still one or 2 votes that don't add up, but all the "I can't believe you would do that" stuff gets played up for TV purposes, but for the most part, the votes go to the person who played the best out of the final 2.
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tailgatetimer10
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In reply to Lt. Joe Bookman • 11:46a, 9/16/15
AG
I think he was just mad, when people are upset they say things that they don't necessarily believe or mean. You gotta think he was slightly hurt by getting booted by the person he's been with since day 1
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Bunk Moreland
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In reply to Lt. Joe Bookman • 11:48a, 9/16/15
He was saying it because Austin he was surprised and upset/shocked, and also because he once again does not have any touch of reality on the situation. Many don't in that position. That's a long time to be inside the house. He thinks he has it all figured out, but he's bass ackwards. Just like Liz and Julia thinking they are "guaranteed to be America's choice" and "nobody likes weird Steve and John anyway"

I'd love to be a fly on the wall in the jury house when the camera's aren't there forcing them to make the "for tv" comments. As soon as they see Austin walk through that door, Shelli, Becky, James, etc. will all say "damn Vanessa is just dominating" and the conversation throughout the week will continue to be that she is playing an unbelievable game.
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The Milkman
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In reply to Bunk Moreland • 12:09p, 9/16/15
AG
quote:
I know what you mean in theory, but Austin was delusional at that moment. He just got blind-sided, he literally told Julie he thought he would win the entire game. Any gameplayer worth half a **** would know Austin's "resume" in the house was by far the weakest out of anyone left.

Get Liz in jury with him to bang for a week, remove the emotions of realizing you aren't a winner, and take JMac to the final 2. Liz/Austin aren't voting for John. They'll vote for the person who was on their side the entire season because they'll realize she really did do what was best for her game. It happens virtually every year. There are still one or 2 votes that don't add up, but all the "I can't believe you would do that" stuff gets played up for TV purposes, but for the most part, the votes go to the person who played the best out of the final 2.
But if Liz goes to the final 2, she wont have that chance for a dose of reality.
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MSCAg
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12:12p, 9/16/15
AG
Austin was blindsided and pissed. Once that is over, he'll acknowledge she played the best game.

More and more, getting Liz out is Van's best move. With Liz, you know you are down two votes. Her gone, you may have a shot.

Julia is stupid and Vanessa could probably convince her to actually take her to final 2. Liz is much smarter.

Getting out Liz gives Vanessa the best chance of winning. The key IMO is to take JMac to F2. I'm not sure if Vanessa wants to be next to Steve. I could see the twins being vindictive and voting for Steve out of spite, as well as Austion. I could also see Shelli and Jackie giving him pity votes. Add in JMac's vote and Steve & his mom are $500k richer.


Vanessa does have to win out. I really think if she doesn't win, the biggest mistakes were going to be evicting Meg (stupid waste).
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Bunk Moreland
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In reply to MSCAg • 12:16p, 9/16/15
Agree. She should have stacked her deck with Meg, JMac, and Steve.

Liz in the final 2 means Liz gets Austin and Julia guaranteed.

Vanessa in the final 2 without Liz (so long as Liz isn't the last person evicted on finale night with no time to separate emotion), will most likely earn her 3 votes from the Austwins no matter who she goes up against.

Get Liz out now, let her have a week to bang and relax, and win that final HOH. There's your winning strategy for Vanessa.
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Bunk Moreland
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12:20p, 9/16/15
and FWIW...the "HG rankings" on jokers for the last 23 days has had Julia, Liz, & Austin at the very bottom in 15th, 16th, and 17th.

It's not a perfect ranking system, but it gives you a good enough idea of what America is thinking.

James/John still 1/2. I think JMac has America's Player sewn up unless he gets into the F2, then James gets it.
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kpaggie05
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12:26p, 9/16/15
AG
Agree that Vanessa needs to vote out Liz. Austwins would likely all come around and vote for her after they reunite if she makes it to the end. If it's somehow Steve/John in the end - I think Steve wins. Only shot John has is if he's sitting against Liz in the F2.
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Bunk Moreland
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12:31p, 9/16/15
Final 4 comp stats:

Vanessa: 4 HOH wins, 3 POV wins
Steve: 3 HOH wins, 2 POV wins
John: 0 HOH wins, 4 POV wins
Liz: 3 HOH wins, 1 POV win

John then had a ton of 2nd place finishes that he'll have to explain that he threw on purpose and give a few details to justify. Then he'd have to hinge on "you guys voted me out and I'm still here. I'm a survivor. I did whatever it took to win. When Clay and Shelli were in power, I was so loyal to them volunteering time and time again to go on the block. I helped all of your games by being that volunteer pawn for you, allowing you to not get blood on your hands" type of campaign on finale night.

But in reality, if he made the final 2...he'd go "huhh. You guys vote for whoever you want. I think I kicked ass though" and just sit down like a goof.
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MSCAg
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1:03p, 9/16/15
AG
I think James has had the most number 1 rankings on Jokers so I'm guessing he'll get it. His problem is he'll have been gone a couple weeks and therefore John may gain grown.
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aggietoolman
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In reply to Bunk Moreland • 1:36p, 9/16/15
AG
You've got Jmac nailed. I think he played a very good game. The problem is that in that final two situation he would be completely unable to articulate how he did what he did. If he was able to explain all of that out, then I think he'd actually have a pretty good shot even against Vanessa.


Vanessa does have this game in the bag as long as she wins the comps needed, but her player status is more of a reflection of the stupidity of the rest of the house more than her skill as a player. I'd put her somewhere in the middle of all BB winners (if she makes it). Players have been saying that they need to vote her out for several weeks now, but no one was willing to 'get the blood on them' to do it.

Someone above alluded to the possibility that Steve threw the POV comp. If that is true, then he is just as dumb as the rest of that house, which I've thought for a while anyway.
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aggietoolman
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In reply to MSCAg • 1:36p, 9/16/15
AG
On Jokers James has the lead. On the site I frequent, John has the lead. It will be a really tight race.
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RockInspector
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2:37p, 9/16/15
I get what everyone is saying about Liz and HG's not being emotional once they get to the jury house and that it would be best for her to evict Liz (which I hope she does). However, we've all watched JM throw comps for battle of the block, HoH and even a veto to Austin (bowlerina).

The two people who were best at winning when their backs were against the wall were JM and Vanessa. Even when John didn't win, he was usually in the top 2 - 4. Hell, there were a few comps where Vanessa was the first one out and she completely sucks at puzzles.

Here is my point - Total wins aside (because people throw comps) there has been one consistent performer in every type of competition and that has been Johnny Mac. Why would you risk being odd man out by having to compete against him? She knows about "Rockstars" so is she kidding herself into believing that everyone wants to take her to the final two because "she doesn't have the votes in jury"? JM isn't taking her to final 2...surely she knows this. And in my opinion, he is the only real threat to beat her (and probably will) in the final HoH. I hope she keeps him because I want him to stay but she has been smart the whole game...why screw it up at the end?
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RockInspector
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In reply to aggietoolman • 2:43p, 9/16/15
quote:

Someone above alluded to the possibility that Steve threw the POV comp. If that is true, then he is just as dumb as the rest of that house, which I've thought for a while anyway.
That was me. Steve was talking to himself (and to the cameras in the HoH room) and was basically apologizing to his mother that he may have just made a $500,000 mistake by throwing the Veto comp instead of winning it and saving Johnny Mac. He went on to say that he knows JM would have evicted Vanessa and that is what he should have done (in hindsight).

Maybe they will show it tonight.

And yes, if true, that is the dumbest move of the entire season.
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Ganondorf
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3:27p, 9/16/15
AG
Jury house warms an icy heart like a cool tropical song.

Everyone in there we'll know Vanessa played the best game. Everyone hated get tactics and yet no one stopped it.
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Rule #76
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4:48p, 9/16/15
Agree with Rock. There is no way Vanessa keeps John over Liz. She knows he is her biggest threat competition wise to send her out of the game. She also knows Steve isn't taking her to final two over Johnny. Liz and Steve have both been weak in the endurance competitions so Vanessa will be sitting pretty for at least one part of the final HoH competition.
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Counterpoint
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5:58p, 9/16/15
AG
quote:
Yeah, I was wondering why he kept saying that.

He might have helped her chances by saying that too. After the 4 returning jury members came back in the house, Vanessa purposefully told everyone over and over that it seemed like they hated her and they were ignoring her the whole time. I don't know if that's true, but that's what she told everyone. Now, Austin says there's no way she can win?

If I was in the house and only knew that stuff, maybe I would decide to take her to the final 2.
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RockInspector
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7:19p, 9/16/15
In order for Vanessa to win, she will need to do two things:

First - She will have to vote out Johnny Mac tonight (sucks but it's the truth)

Second - Her speech on the night of the jury vote should be about her hoping that the jury members respected her game play and never, ever, ever mention the following words....her "integrity" or her "word". If she mentions those words in her speech, she will be sunk the moment they leave her lips (just calling my shot). I think that is the one thing that will set some of the jury members off and cause them to vote against her. There is not a soul in that game (other than Vanessa) that thinks anyone played with 100% integrity (or even close to it). They all mocked her behind her back every time she pulled that holier than thou crap. It would be quite humorous if that ultimately ended up deciding her fate.
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Bunk Moreland
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7:50p, 9/16/15
Rock I think you are looking at it from an outsiders perspective. The jury members don't know all we know and see all we see. They won't hold it against her one iota if she uses integrity and her word etc.

They won't care. As long as she makes final 2, she wins imo. No other way around it. Maybe Steve could conjure up a good fight against her but everyone in the jury understands that she has dominated them all this year.
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MooreTrucker
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8:21p, 9/16/15
AG
I refuse to watch until Rachel is off my tv.
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MooreTrucker
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In reply to Bunk Moreland • 8:24p, 9/16/15
AG
quote:
Rock I think you are looking at it from an outsiders perspective. The jury members don't know all we know and see all we see. They won't hold it against her one iota if she uses integrity and her word etc.

They won't care. As long as she makes final 2, she wins imo. No other way around it. Maybe Steve could conjure up a good fight against her but everyone in the jury understands that she has dominated them all this year.
She definitely still has Shelli snowed.
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ftaggie09
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8:28p, 9/16/15
AG
Wish James question would be about her breaking her work and putting him up. If roles were reversed she would still be crying about him not keeping his word
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MooreTrucker
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8:48p, 9/16/15
AG
Good grief, JMac, what did that even mean????
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MSCAg
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9:04p, 9/16/15
AG
Dumb move, they should all want to sit next to JMac in F2.

My wife thinks she had girl crush on Liz and I wonder if it's true. Liz had won HoHs and has a good chance at winning comps.
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MSCAg
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9:07p, 9/16/15
AG
More and more, I wonder if she'll be the next Allison from season 3. Played the best gme, but rubbed the jury the wrong and Jun won.
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HTownAg98
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In reply to MSCAg • 9:51p, 9/16/15
Nah, they all realize she has played the best game. They aren't all very smart, but smart enough to not take it personally. She wins against anyone.
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tailgatetimer10
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9:53p, 9/16/15
AG
She went with the odds that there is a better chance of Liz keeping her than Johnny.. Which is right. Just sucks.
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