1) Craig Bohl, HC at Wyoming.
2) I'm 65% certain he does better than Sumlin and takes us to the next level. The SEC is not the MWC or FCS, but he has shown an ability to develop a program and win at a high level. If he'd gotten his start in FBS or a bigger name program, he'd be a bigger name himself and I'd up the confidence percentage.
3) Bohl coached NDSU to victories over multiple FBS teams, with a win over KSU. He's like 7-3 and was competitive in all but one loss. He built a program that has dominated the FCS for the last five years with 5 straight national titles. FCS? Yeah, but you don't dominate like that without being able to coach and manage. He's the Nick Saban of the FCS and flew under the radar because it's the FCS.
In year 3 at Wyoming, he's 7-2 with losses to Eastern Michigan and Nebraska but 5-0 in conference. SDSU is the last hump in a ten win regular season. ****ty competition? Yeah, but he's doing it with Wyoming, a program that has two 8 win seasons since 1996. He's out coaching and out preparing his competition so far this year.
I did a break down of national championship coaches last year. Only 1-2 of like the last 20 MNC's has been won by a coach not in his first 5 years on the job. Pretty much all of them had at least a conference title in year 2-3. Taking any program, making it yours, and winning hardware with what you have is the mark of a good coach. If Bohl wins the MWC, he's got it.
4) No one beats bama regularly, and that's not a realistic requirement for a replacement when Sumlin is 1-4. Beating them half the time or even a third is an improvement and I would consider it next level.
5) Bohl would be cheap. His current max compensation is < $1 million. We could triple his pay and still have $2 million more for assistants every year.