Even if it becomes evident that a change needs to be made at a coordinator position, that doesn't mean there aren't plenty of constraints on any HC that needs to make a change. A lot of posts regarding necessary changes all seem written as though you just need to take a trip to the coaches store and get a newer, better model. Mid-season, even.

Any OC/DC worth having is already employed and almost by definition in a good spot success-wise. If they were not, we wouldn't be looking at them.

I suspect that, rather than considering actual opportunities and constraints regarding a change at a coordinator position, that what the potbangers really want, viscerally, is the public execution at the 50 yard line of any coordinator who didn't call a game as they see fit; a win only mitigates that desire only a little bit for them.

Lateralus Ag hasn't answered the OP yet?

Disappointed.

Soooooo, page 2 and not a name yet?

Point proved?

So OP prefers mediocrity. And defends it.

cheeeseburger said:

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Assume for this thread that everyone agrees with you and we need to run Sumlin off:

1) Who's your next guy that takes us to the next level? He beats Bama regularly; we live in Top10 and Top5; double-digit wins without fail; he takes us to the playoffs. He evaluates talent and recruits better; he knows how to manage and develop 4- and 5-star players with high expectations for themselves; he builds a stronger staff; he prepares and executes on a Saban level.

2) How certain are you that your new guy takes us to the next level? 75% ? 90% ? Higher?

3) What's your evidence that your new guy can do all these things at a Top5 or Top10 level?

Opinion and speculation are ok, but acknowledge that opinion and speculation are not the same thing as evidence.

One final note: This thread is not about Sumlin, so don't make it about Sumlin. This thread is about your next guy. Who is he?

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For one thing, the next guy wouldn't have to do everything better (which everything in your first point is worded that way).

Sumlin has shown to assemble a good staff, can recruit, and is a great program manager. I think program management is probably his greatest strength. His areas of weakness are (IMO) player development and (per those on this board that know a lot more than me) game plan development and execution (which may be attributed to staff hires).

If we look at Saban (an unfair comparison), it is clear that he is very active in defensive coaching. At one point it seemed like Sumlin might be an Offensive guru, but I can't tell you where (if anywhere) he is most active in player coaching and development.

I would have to defer to former players' opinions and thoughts.

Orlando Ayala Cant Read said:

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if Sumlin wins 11 this year if anything he might get another contract extension. that's not out of the question.

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For the record, I've been a "cautious supporter" of him. I agree that 11 wins should warrant extension.

Can you imagine? The same season that tu fires their first black coach, we extend and celebrate ours? What a huge FU to them.

Another thing I like about the Chief and Mazzone hires are these guys are not new, young, flashy coordinators looking for the next step in becoming a HC. They want to teach, have great coaches around them, and now you're going to extend the man that created this staff. It would make a strong statement to recruits , which would fill in the last piece we're missing to combat Alabama.

mike_ags_fan12 said:

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cheeeseburger said:

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Assume for this thread that everyone agrees with you and we need to run Sumlin off:

1) Who's your next guy that takes us to the next level? He beats Bama regularly; we live in Top10 and Top5; double-digit wins without fail; he takes us to the playoffs. He evaluates talent and recruits better; he knows how to manage and develop 4- and 5-star players with high expectations for themselves; he builds a stronger staff; he prepares and executes on a Saban level.

2) How certain are you that your new guy takes us to the next level? 75% ? 90% ? Higher?

3) What's your evidence that your new guy can do all these things at a Top5 or Top10 level?

Opinion and speculation are ok, but acknowledge that opinion and speculation are not the same thing as evidence.

One final note: This thread is not about Sumlin, so don't make it about Sumlin. This thread is about your next guy. Who is he?

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He said this is not about Sumlin.

I think the answer is, there is no one that can fulfill these criteria.

First: I am not a Sumlin hater, I think many other hires would have had us going 4-8 the past two years with all the QB meltdowns and mediocre running games.

That being said, I thought I'd play devil's advocate and try to answer OP's questions:

Assume for this thread that everyone agrees with you and we need to run Sumlin off:

Quote:

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1) Who's your next guy that takes us to the next level? He beats Bama regularly; we live in Top10 and Top5; double-digit wins without fail; he takes us to the playoffs. He evaluates talent and recruits better; he knows how to manage and develop 4- and 5-star players with high expectations for themselves; he builds a stronger staff; he prepares and executes on a Saban level.

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I question the premise that we have to find an *established* person in any of these categories. Many great "program" coaches came into those programs without bona fides in the things you're asking for here. Some are great recruiters; some run great systems; some hire great staff; some are great talent developers. Few have put it all together for multiple years, and the ones that have done so are still around are embedded and expensive. So really the only viable option to find this new coach is to take a chance on someone and hope you find the next Urban Meyer or Bob Stoops.

I also strongly believe that in this day and age it is the totality of a coaching staff which defines the long-term success of a program. You don't just need a good head coach, you need good coordinators, position coaches, and strong recruiting and player development staff. And I don't know that many coaches get a lot of training at being a "CEO coach."

So that being said, I will list 2 candidates that I would strongly pursue, and 3 who I think will be good program coaches in their careers.

Strongly Pursue
Mark Dantonio - obviously a long shot, but a no-brainer, 95% confident the man is a great CEO coach
Bobby Petrino - more "gettable", I feel he could beat Alabama any given Saturday, 85% confidence, but he also seems a bit mercenary.

These two guys I would give 75% shots at being great.

James Franklin - Pretty great recruiter, if Penn State has him on a short leash, I'd take him
Mike Gundy - great Xes and Os guy and great player developer

And then two dark horses, a total 50/50 shot at being great at best, but with lots of upside:

Kliff Kingsbury - Leach without the baggage, ran our last offense that beat Alabama, and I think he needs a "program" to paper over some of his weaknesses.
Matt Rhule at Temple - again, just a really good feeling about him, if I were giving odds on non-P5 coaches leading a team to a national title in the next 20 years, he'd probably be #1

Quote:

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3) What's your evidence that your new guy can do all these things at a Top5 or Top10 level?

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Dantonio - duh
Petrino - duh

Franklin - dude put Vandy in the top 25; I believe.
Gundy - two time Top 10 AP, one time top 3.

Kinsgbury - offensively we've seen it; as a HC he's an unknown, but Kingsbury + Chavis would be .. well I'd like to see it.
Rhule - nothing yet, just a hunch

Again, devil's advocate, but those guys would be on my list if Sumlin took that sweet USC job ... well, maybe not Rhule, I'd like him to go have success at some place like Purdue or Arizona State first.

KK is about to get run off at Tceh. No way we would hire him as anything other than an assistant coach.

chipotle said:

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Bobaloo said:

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8T2 said:

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dcbowers said:

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Tom Herman.

Oh, wait, nevermind...

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Herman can beat Alabama (2014). He just can't beat SMU.

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Or Navy

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All his guys know he's gone. I doubt they're playing.

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Geez...this makes so much sense. They're thinking "Herman is gone, so let me play poorly so the next coach can watch film and see how poorly I played. Yup, that is my way to hold on to my starting position."

Do you even THINK before you write something like that???!!!

I just want to see Sumlin and the coaching staff think out of the box. Two weeks to prepare and I was not impressed with our offense. Also the mistakes made by players yielding penalties. Do they not understand that hitting a passer after he throws the ball is risky. Especially in the face. The refs will give your no help in Alabama against Alabama. Stop making dumb plays.

Pam Poovey said:

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Can't beat Bama without the blue chip athletes. Can't get the athletes bc they get swindled by Chuck or bought by other programs willing to flat out cheat (more than we are).

Not Sumlin's fault. This is as good as it gets. Sucks, but we have all the facilities and staff pieces. Bama's talent just can't be beaten. Sorry guys.

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Crap post. no way this is as good as it gets. I'm not on the fire Sumlin train by any means, but he can still be better than he's been. He can most certainly recruit better to give us a better chance, as well.

I don't think we can overtake bama as long as saban is there, but we absolutely can be recruiting better than we are and give ourselves a better chance to beat them any given year. Auburn and LSU have beaten him and won the west in recent years. No reason we can't sneak one in sometime as well.

That said, I do believe we have to recruit better than we have in 2016 and so far in 2017 to realistically do so. Our 2014 and 2015 classes were better and even they are unlikely to win the game. We need to recruit like 2014 year in and year out. Stack the depth required to compete with them every year. Sure, we'll still probably lose more than we'll win against saban, but maybe you could win 1/3 or so and beat LSU roughly 50% of the time. Maybe sneaking in an sec championship every 5-6 years or so.

Fair question, but it is premature to be asking this at this point, in my view. My answer: I have no idea. And it doesn't matter. Firing and hiring decisions are independent of each other.

I'm hoping we beat both Ole Miss and LSU (and the others of course) and then there will be no coaching change. But if we drop both of those games at home (again), there will be a lot of angst.

Turkey said:

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Fair question, but it is premature to be asking this at this point, in my view. My answer: I have no idea. And it doesn't matter. Firing and hiring decisions are independent of each other.

I'm hoping we beat both Ole Miss and LSU (and the others of course) and then there will be no coaching change. But if we drop both of those games at home (again), there will be a lot of angst.

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I disagree that they are independent of each other. I don't know why you would fire somebody unless you were sure that you have a better thing coming.

Unless you think that a coach is so bad that literally anyone could do the job better.

Snap E Tom said:

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Orlando Ayala Cant Read said:

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if Sumlin wins 11 this year if anything he might get another contract extension. that's not out of the question.

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For the record, I've been a "cautious supporter" of him. I agree that 11 wins should warrant extension.

Can you imagine? The same season that tu fires their first black coach, we extend and celebrate ours? What a huge FU to them.

Another thing I like about the Chief and Mazzone hires are these guys are not new, young, flashy coordinators looking for the next step in becoming a HC. They want to teach, have great coaches around them, and now you're going to extend the man that created this staff. It would make a strong statement to recruits , which would fill in the last piece we're missing to combat Alabama.

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I disagree on the extension. I really don't think Kevin Sumlin is looking to go anywhere and I am not sure if he is going to be actively recruited to a program bigger than ours.

His current contract goes through 2019. Let's have the discussion at the close of the 2018 season. That's this year plus two more to see what he comes up with. Do you really think that if he is a 9-11 win coach over these three seasons that he is going to be snapped up by another program?

If he is a 9 to 11 win coach after these three seasons then after 2018 we can sit down and discuss his contract and an extension. Giving out big guaranteed money and extensions after a good season has not really been a winning strategy for us.

Only real complaint about Sumlin is that our teams aren't particularly physical. Talent aside, because I don't think that Alabama is that much more talented, what stood out was how much more physical Alabama was than us. They whooped our asses man for man and we looked like we were not too interested in hitting back.

8T2 said:

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cheeeseburger said:

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He beats Bama regularly;


One final note: This thread is not about Sumlin, so don't make it about Sumlin. This thread is about your next guy. Who is he?

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Coaches who have beaten Bama at all in the last 5 years:

Hugh Frieze (2)
Urban Meyer
Gus Malzahn
Bob Stoops
Kevin Sumlin

Who do you want? Who would come here?

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Cant you see...sumlin is an ANOMALY. Everyone else earned the win as a coach through hard work, determination and good coachinh decisions but ours was gifted that one player that could beat bama. Anything else sumlin did had NO effect on that team or that season. Because sumlin sucks. Everyone else is the best because reasons. I dont know why i say that but dammit i just FEEL it. How could sumlin be a good coach and a great man and have us playing well? Does not compute. Im sure glad we lost to that horrible bama team so i can voice my well informed opinions on him, his team, and his character.


/guess who

ElPasoAg01 said:

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Only real complaint about Sumlin is that our teams aren't particularly physical. Talent aside, because I don't think that Alabama is that much more talented, what stood out was how much more physical Alabama was than us. They whooped our asses man for man and we looked like we were not too interested in hitting back.

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That happens when you have several top 2 classes in a row. They have 22 more 4 and 5 stars than us. Thats a whole other team of only 4 and 5 stars they could field against us. And you saw it when they rotated them all in.

Not hating on Sumlin. I'm fine if we keep winning this year.

But would rather have Chip Kelly with Chief still the DC.

Sumlin has taken a historically 7-6 (average program) and made it a 8.5-4.5 program (slightly above average).

That's great. But we see ourselves as a annual national title contender with a built in excuse list.

To get the level of great program, I believe Sumlin has to win 10 games in back to back seasons (counting bowl wins). I have low confidence in his ability to do that. But I believe he'll always have a 7-5 floor. Which makes him a great success here.

ElPasoAg01 said:

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Only real complaint about Sumlin is that our teams aren't particularly physical. Talent aside, because I don't think that Alabama is that much more talented, what stood out was how much more physical Alabama was than us. They whooped our asses man for man and we looked like we were not too interested in hitting back.

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Would you care to point out an NCAA team that is as physical as Bama?

They have had something like 5 straight #1 recruiting classes. A guy like Garrett would start for them, but just be another in the long line of great players they have and would probably have plenty of fans on the Bama side feeling like he was their 3rd or 4th best player on their starting defense.

We have a handful of 5* kids on this team, depending on the service - guys like Myles, Daylon, Kirk & Speedy.

Their entire starting offense and defense are basically 5* guys and most of their backups are as well (and their backups are as well).

This is a school where guys like Alvin Kamara and Kendall Sheffield transfer from because they can't get on the field much. If Sheffield lands here, he'll likely become on of our best defensive players within a year or two.

People need to STOP acting like Bama is the standard to meet for a great football team, cause they aren't. If you meet their standard, you're an elite, dynasty level program.

Recipe for national championship:

Head coach: Chip Kelly
DC: Chief
Strength coach: Scott Cochran (currently at Bama; no doubt in my mind that he has great PED contacts)

Sumlin is our man unless we can get Saban.

I think Sumlin's finally figured out what it takes to compete in the SEC and I like how he's got us playing. I would much rather have Kevin Sumlin leading our team than any of the realistic replacements mentioned.

greg.w.h said:

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So OP prefers mediocrity. And defends it.

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Greg, your statement is a faulty inference. You're speculating and deflecting.

Who's your next coach, or GTFO.

(or maybe I missed the sarcasm?)

I gave you a logical option with Kubiak

lil_frog8 said:

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I gave you a logical option with Kubiak

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I'm sorry I missed that. I value your input and you as a poster.

There are quite a few quality coaches - especially ones that can recruit better, prepare better, and whose teams don't make stupid mistakes regularly.

-Freeze (hate him or not), is an excellent coach and recruiter. The idea of him at one of our rivals is terrifying
-Kiffin may be the next great coach. He's always been able to recruit, but now has learned from the master. He will wreck shop at his next stop.
-Larry Fedora wanted the job the first time. He's connected in Texas, and a great coach as well
-Fuentes is doing pretty damned well these days, and should be attainable


I honestly believe Chad Morris is the next coach at A&M, for many reasons. SMU is his training ground for now.


However, there isn't a coach out there in CFB that can beat Saban regularly. We do, however, need stellar recruiting to keep up with the rest of our division so that we can do so occasionally. I don't believe that Sumlin will beat Saban ever again, because he doesn't have Kliff or Manziel. Instead, the only real hope I have when playing Bama under Sumlin is not to get blown out.

If we replace Sumlin, we should get Les Miles. How's that for a name?

Zoo gonna zoo

The next evolution of Sumlin for me is to see what he does when Kliff or maybe a Chad Morris get fired as a head coach. Does he have the stones to make the call and upgrade Mazzone even though, theoretically, Mazzone has improved us? Those are the tough calls I want to see him make as a CEO coach trying to win an NC. We'll see...

cheeeseburger said:

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Assume for this thread that everyone agrees with you and we need to run Sumlin off:

1) Who's your next guy that takes us to the next level? He beats Bama regularly; we live in Top10 and Top5; double-digit wins without fail; he takes us to the playoffs. He evaluates talent and recruits better; he knows how to manage and develop 4- and 5-star players with high expectations for themselves; he builds a stronger staff; he prepares and executes on a Saban level.

2) How certain are you that your new guy takes us to the next level? 75% ? 90% ? Higher?

3) What's your evidence that your new guy can do all these things at a Top5 or Top10 level?

Opinion and speculation are ok, but acknowledge that opinion and speculation are not the same thing as evidence.

One final note: This thread is not about Sumlin, so don't make it about Sumlin. This thread is about your next guy. Who is he?

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No living coach can do this. May be not even Saban
That doesn't mean it can't be done. it being beating bama.

It is obvious that under current rules of the game, we can't win against like bama.
If we want to win, we have to change the rules, so that rules favor us.

What we want is a set up a schema or program to reliably feed the best Texas athlete to us. Convince them and encourage them to come to A&M. So, chasing after next 'hot' coach is fool's errand as that coach may or may not lock up the best Texas athlete for us. Next coach may be better than Sumlin but may be worse too.

So how to change the whole scheme. think unconventionally.

there are 23 active coaches that have a better winning percentage than Sumlin.

pick one.

think Texas HS coaches.

Revolutionize their career progression to professional rank of college coach. Set up a program to shuffle them to rank of college coaches at A&M year in and year out so we have channel of HS coaches rank graduating to college level through A&M. Buy their loyalty. Pick up few genuine gem of good HS coach and let them run it.

Coaching s not rocket science or brain surgery. Leave that to professional.

Find a young smart energetic HS coach and make sure he has charisma, discipline, smarts and grit. Make sure he installs same stuff Saban does day and day out.

Once, you have a Texas HS coach on your side and set up recruiting pipe line to TAMU, beating Saban and bama is possible.