First: I am not a Sumlin hater, I think many other hires would have had us going 4-8 the past two years with all the QB meltdowns and mediocre running games.
That being said, I thought I'd play devil's advocate and try to answer OP's questions:
Assume for this thread that everyone agrees with you and we need to run Sumlin off:
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1) Who's your next guy that takes us to the next level? He beats Bama regularly; we live in Top10 and Top5; double-digit wins without fail; he takes us to the playoffs. He evaluates talent and recruits better; he knows how to manage and develop 4- and 5-star players with high expectations for themselves; he builds a stronger staff; he prepares and executes on a Saban level.
I question the premise that we have to find an *established* person in any of these categories. Many great "program" coaches came into those programs without bona fides in the things you're asking for here. Some are great recruiters; some run great systems; some hire great staff; some are great talent developers. Few have put it all together for multiple years, and the ones that have done so are still around are embedded and expensive. So really the only viable option to find this new coach is to take a chance on someone and hope you find the next Urban Meyer or Bob Stoops.
I also strongly believe that in this day and age it is the totality of a coaching staff which defines the long-term success of a program. You don't just need a good head coach, you need good coordinators, position coaches, and strong recruiting and player development staff. And I don't know that many coaches get a lot of training at being a "CEO coach."
So that being said, I will list 2 candidates that I would strongly pursue, and 3 who I think will be good program coaches in their careers.
Strongly Pursue
Mark Dantonio - obviously a long shot, but a no-brainer, 95% confident the man is a great CEO coach
Bobby Petrino - more "gettable", I feel he could beat Alabama any given Saturday, 85% confidence, but he also seems a bit mercenary.
These two guys I would give 75% shots at being great.
James Franklin - Pretty great recruiter, if Penn State has him on a short leash, I'd take him
Mike Gundy - great Xes and Os guy and great player developer
And then two dark horses, a total 50/50 shot at being great at best, but with lots of upside:
Kliff Kingsbury - Leach without the baggage, ran our last offense that beat Alabama, and I think he needs a "program" to paper over some of his weaknesses.
Matt Rhule at Temple - again, just a really good feeling about him, if I were giving odds on non-P5 coaches leading a team to a national title in the next 20 years, he'd probably be #1
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3) What's your evidence that your new guy can do all these things at a Top5 or Top10 level?
Dantonio - duh
Petrino - duh
Franklin - dude put Vandy in the top 25; I believe.
Gundy - two time Top 10 AP, one time top 3.
Kinsgbury - offensively we've seen it; as a HC he's an unknown, but Kingsbury + Chavis would be .. well I'd like to see it.
Rhule - nothing yet, just a hunch
Again, devil's advocate, but those guys would be on my list if Sumlin took that sweet USC job ... well, maybe not Rhule, I'd like him to go have success at some place like Purdue or Arizona State first.