Lose the Saturday night game and you need 3 more wins, not 2.

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Lose the Saturday night game and you need 3 more wins, not 2.

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Yep you're correct. Read what I meant, not what I wrote!

Thanks!

Kent it is.

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Kent it is.

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Is this official now?

yep tweeted by the Eagle, Zone1150, etc.

So you get the first two..you still have to win a third. You just eliminate the threat of the losers bracket? I don't know why I'm sweating this so much at some point SOMEBODY else is going to have to step up and pitch or none of it matters.

Downside... Kent is pitch to contact so TSU speed may stress our infield.

Upside... Kent is one of the best fielding pitchers I've seen at A&M.

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So you get the first two..you still have to win a third. You just eliminate the threat of the losers bracket? I don't know why I'm sweating this so much at some point SOMEBODY else is going to have to step up and pitch or none of it matters.

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If we start 2-0 we have a stable of arms while our opponent is going with their #4. Even with our lack of quality starters we'll have the advantage.

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True. I think a few of the guys are better than they have shown as well it's just the defense has done them no favors.

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So you get the first two..you still have to win a third. You just eliminate the threat of the losers bracket? I don't know why I'm sweating this so much at some point SOMEBODY else is going to have to step up and pitch or none of it matters.

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It could be like the 2011 regional where Wacha had to pitch the game 7 (albeit on a Tuesday due to rain). Maybe the rain could help us.

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So you get the first two..you still have to win a third. You just eliminate the threat of the losers bracket? I don't know why I'm sweating this so much at some point SOMEBODY else is going to have to step up and pitch or none of it matters.

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If we start 2-0 we have a stable of arms while our opponent is going with their #4. Even with our lack of quality starters we'll have the advantage.

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I agree. Our lineup has rarely been shut down by a #4 pitcher this year, as was the case many times in years past.

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So you get the first two..you still have to win a third.

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Yes but getting those first two gives you a huge advantage, just need to win three games. At any point you fall to the losers bracket, need to win four games (at least three in a row) with the last two games with your fourth & fifth best starters.

Better outcome... quick hook Kent after 40-50 pitches or let him go complete?

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Better outcome... quick hook Kent after 40-50 pitches or let him go complete?

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assuming we're winning big...tough choice! I say quick hook but a case could be made either way

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Better outcome... quick hook Kent after 40-50 pitches or let him go complete?

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depends on score. If the Ags are up very comfortably, then pull him ASAP. If it's a 3 run lead or closer, he needs to stay in. Last thing we want to do is pull him and have the bullpen let TSU back in the game, just to save his pitch count for later in the weekend.

IMO, you take the gamble in deciding who starts. Once you are in the game, you have to play to win. Gambling in-game is much tougher unless the Ags are clearly going to win.

Let's say we're up 8-0 after 4. Do you pull Kent or let him go the distance?

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Let's say we're up 8-0 after 4. Do you pull Kent or let him go the distance?

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I say pull him and he may be able to pitch a few innings of relief later on

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Let's say we're up 8-0 after 4. Do you pull Kent or let him go the distance?

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Pull him immediately. At 8-0, against such an inferior opponent, the risk is so much lower at that point, so you yank him.

If he only had to go 4 on Friday night, he could throw 1 or 2 on Sunday night if needed, or if not used Sunday night but it pushes to Monday, he could start Monday and get us another 4 or 5.

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Let's say we're up 8-0 after 4. Do you pull Kent or let him go the distance?

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yep in this scenario I say yank him

I would take the opposite approach --- let Kent go the distance if he can -- let's say up to 100 pitches. Don't use anyone in the pen if it can be avoided

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I would take the opposite approach --- let Kent go the distance if he can -- let's say up to 100 pitches. Don't use anyone in the pen if it can be avoided

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If it's 8-0 or a blowout, I'd rather get Kent out early and get 4 innings out of a Hill/Larkings/Freeman/Kopetsky type from the BP and save Kent.

That way you have Vinson, Ecker, Hendrix, Simonds, Stubblefield, Martin, and Schlottman, for the rest of the way, plus any of the other relievers we don't use AND the availability of Kent for more innings.

But I wouldn't be upset with a CG and no use of the bullpen if we went that route as well.

http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2015/schedule/Texas-Southern

Three wins above RPI 200. Best wins are twice over RPI 133 Houston Baptist. Haven't played an RPI Top 100 team since mid March.

The best chance to advance is to get to Sunday undefeated. TSU did play both TCU & DBU close this season.

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http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2015/schedule/Texas-Southern

Three wins above RPI 200. Best wins are twice over RPI 133 Houston Baptist. Haven't played an RPI Top 100 team since mid March.

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Given that they have only played 3 teams in the top 100 and in 6 total games, why is it so shocking that they have not won any games against the top 100? All 3 teams they played are regional hosts and two of the games they lost by 1 run. I am not claiming they are world beaters, but this information seems to make people think we can throw anyone we want and have zero fear of losing. I disagree. I do love starting Kent, thats absolutely the right choice.

Post season games are never "give me" games. Ags will have to show up to win this regional. Can't sleep walk through it...

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Post season games are never "give me" games. Ags will have to show up to win this regional. Can't sleep walk through it...

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Ags are -1200 to win against TSU. That's roughly the equivalent of being a 21 point favorite in football.

Those of you beating the dont overlook TSU drum, I have a question for you. What percent chance do you give us to beat TSU with Kent starting? What percent chance if Martin, Simonds, Larkins, or Vinson?

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Those of you beating the dont overlook TSU drum, I have a question for you. What percent chance do you give us to beat TSU with Kent starting? What percent chance if Martin, Simonds, Larkins, or Vinson?

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If we don't hit, we can lose with any of our starters on the mound, however, if the offense does their thing, then any starter that can get off the mound giving up fewer than 6 runs can get the win.

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Those of you beating the dont overlook TSU drum, I have a question for you. What percent chance do you give us to beat TSU with Kent starting? What percent chance if Martin, Simonds, Larkins, or Vinson?

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It's not just about winning. If we start a longshot pitcher and end up using four or five guys significantly to close out TSU, then we've gained very little by not pitching Kent--we'd be counting on him to win the 3rd game with little or no help from the pen.

Ideally, Kent works an easy five or six innings, and we use one or two guys from deep on the roster to close it out. That way, we don't rag out the bullpen in game one, and we might be able to bring Kent back to start on Monday in the "if necessary game" if we get to that point.

We have no third starter though. Clearly Kent and Long give us best option of beating offensive teams (see Vanderbilt on Saturday). Our best shot to win regional is saving Long and Kent on Saturday and Sunday for Coastal Carolina and/or Cal. Even if we had to use Vinson for 3 or 4 innings tomorrow, we would have fresh arms out of the pen available for Saturday and Sunday. I still believe that if we start any of the other four pitchers that we have a 90% chance of beating TSU at least and would blow them out 3 out of 4 times with no worries about having to use our best pitchers out of the pen. Going back to Math 141 combinations and permutations this option statistically clearly gives us the best option to win the regional. No question. That is why I asked what others thought our percent chance was to make it mathematical.

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We have no third starter though. Clearly Kent and Long give us best option of beating offensive teams (see Vanderbilt on Saturday). Our best shot to win regional is saving Long and Kent on Saturday and Sunday for Coastal Carolina and/or Cal. Even if we had to use Vinson for 3 or 4 innings tomorrow, we would have fresh arms out of the pen available for Saturday and Sunday. I still believe that if we start any of the other four pitchers that we have a 90% chance of beating TSU at least and would blow them out 3 out of 4 times with no worries about having to use our best pitchers out of the pen. Going back to Math 141 combinations and permutations this option statistically clearly gives us the best option to win the regional. No question. That is why I asked what others thought our percent chance was to make it mathematical.

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I get what you're saying, but you aren't exactly making it "mathematical" by using made up percentages...