Who Pitches Friday?

11,265 Views | 150 Replies | Last: 8 yr ago by W
twk
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AG
quote:
We have no third starter though. Clearly Kent and Long give us best option of beating offensive teams (see Vanderbilt on Saturday). Our best shot to win regional is saving Long and Kent on Saturday and Sunday for Coastal Carolina and/or Cal. Even if we had to use Vinson for 3 or 4 innings tomorrow, we would have fresh arms out of the pen available for Saturday and Sunday. I still believe that if we start any of the other four pitchers that we have a 90% chance of beating TSU at least and would blow them out 3 out of 4 times with no worries about having to use our best pitchers out of the pen. Going back to Math 141 combinations and permutations this option statistically clearly gives us the best option to win the regional. No question. That is why I asked what others thought our percent chance was to make it mathematical.
This isn't a mathematical equation. You run a Simonds or Larkins out there, and the odd are that your lineup starts pressing to score runs, knowing that they have to cover up for the pitcher. TSU has played some close games against good competition. Using Kent is the smart move.
Goose06
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AG
quote:
Those of you beating the dont overlook TSU drum, I have a question for you. What percent chance do you give us to beat TSU with Kent starting? What percent chance if Martin, Simonds, Larkins, or Vinson?
I don't know what the odds are but here are some points I would make:

1. Martin has never started a game and has never pitched more than 3 innings this season. Martin is also 2nd to last on the team in BB/9IP which isn't exactly ideal when combined with the fact that TSU is a running team.

2. Simonds has gotten rocked the last month. His last 3 outtings he has given up 10 runs, 13 hits, and 3 walks in 5+ innings. This includes an appearance against last place Tennessee.

3. Larkins has failed to get out of the first inning in 2 starts. In his last 5 outtings he has 4 starts where he didn't last 5 innings and 1 appearance where he gave up as many runs as outs.

4. Vinson is vital to our bullpen and starting him is a terrible idea, no facts necessary for this argument.

I do think that Martin is the guy I would start in our #3 starter spot and he has the stuff to shut down anyone. However, he certainly isn't proven.
Goose06
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AG
Also, Nicholls State beat LSU @ the Box 6-3 --- crazy **** happens in the game of baseball!

Here are a few name programs that SWAC teams beat this year or at least played close (by the way, they don't play many name programs, they each play anywhere from 0 to 5 name opponents a year so its not like these are 2 examples from hundreds of opportunities):

Teams they beat:

Cal State Fullerton (Alabama State beat them 3-2)
Mississippi State (Arkansas Pine Bluff beat them 3-2)
Missouri (Ark PB beat them 8-3)

Some close ones:
LSU (Southern lost to LSU 4-2 in extra innings)
ULaLa (Southern lost 5-4)
TCU (Texas Southern lost to TCU 1-0)
DBU (Texas Southern lost to DBU 6-5)
FSU (Alabama State lost 8-7)
Auburn (Alabama State lost 7-5)
billydean05
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Goose06,
One of those struggling pitchers listed has to beat somebody. Would you rather take a chance on them beating TSU or Cal/Coastal Carolina?
Goose06
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AG
I'd rather they be put into a situation where we need to go 1-1 as opposed to a position where we need to go 2-0. Because if we go 1-1 in the first 2, then those pitchers will have to go 2-0 (assuming we don't burn both Long/Kent in the process of going 1-1 to start).
Keegan99
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AG
Teams they beat. Ok. How many teams did they not beat?

Don't overvalue the likelihood of an upset. We're -1200 for a reason.

Upsets stick out precisely because they're exceedingly rare, not because they happen routinely.
Texam90
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AG
There are merits to both, I will take the best chance to start 2-0.
Bernie13
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Its very simple. Come out focused and aggressive. We will take this regional if we play D behind any of these pitchers and swing the bats like we can. Time to quit 2nd guessing everything and start enjoying what should be a great weekend! BTHO anybody in our way. Can't wait to get back on here Monday as Regional champs! Ya'll have a great time. I'll be listening and raising hell here in the Ozark Hills!
Bondag
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AG
I can see the merit in jumping out 2-0 so the game three starter has less pressure and Kent would be available if needed game 4 pending innings game 1
ordRV80
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AG
I still think you pitch your #3 (or the committee) vs the weak #4 in the tourney and have your 2 best guys wrap it up against the better teams (I will acknowledge the point from an earlier poster that it should be Long in 2nd game and Kent in 3rd).

BUT, that ain't the way Childress is playing it, so lets just play ball!! I am all in!

BTHOwhoever!!!
Soldier, Statesman, Knightly Gentleman
NakedEdwin
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AG
Look, with our horrible post-season history, who cares??? I would roll the dice with Hendrix, anybody. We don't have the pitching to win it all without taking chances.... Lets get our bats in gear and we could be fine. This is a really good offensive team
W
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AG
interesting...NCState has announced that they're saving their #1 for Saturday's probable game vs. TCU
 
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