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How did Ole Miss pass us up?

16,634 Views | 130 Replies | Last: 8 yr ago by Aftermath
mhayden
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quote:
quote:
We're always quick to point out any other school nabbing top recruits must be cheating, yet conveniently ignore that we land great recruiting classes despite having little-to-no national relevance outside of a non-BCS-bowl Johnny Football year since the turn of the century.

We haven't had a losing season since 2008. A year before they started pulling 5 star recruits they were 2-10


I'm not saying they are clean in recruiting.

But you're naive if you think we are.

It's another one of those times when some of our A&M fans can't seem to see outside their own little bubble... We were actually caught cheating, yet are quick to act like every other team must be doing it... but not us!
TXAggie2011
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AG
quote:
quote:
We're always quick to point out any other school nabbing top recruits must be cheating, yet conveniently ignore that we land great recruiting classes despite having little-to-no national relevance outside of a non-BCS-bowl Johnny Football year since the turn of the century.

We haven't had a losing season since 2008. A year before they started pulling 5 star recruits they were 2-10
It all comes down to who your coaches are. It really does. UT-Austin can have all the nice things they want, but if your leadership isn't good, you end up 5-7 or 4-8. Twice in just six seasons.

Alabama has had crap years, too. Nick Saban doesn't win everything because he's at Alabama. Alabama wins everything because they have Nick Saban.

Ole Miss has had good streaks before, but Houston Nutt was a lousy coach and that's why he doesn't coach anymore.
TXAggie2011
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AG
quote:
quote:
quote:
We're always quick to point out any other school nabbing top recruits must be cheating, yet conveniently ignore that we land great recruiting classes despite having little-to-no national relevance outside of a non-BCS-bowl Johnny Football year since the turn of the century.

We haven't had a losing season since 2008. A year before they started pulling 5 star recruits they were 2-10


I'm not saying they are clean in recruiting.

But you're naive if you think we are.

It's another one of those times when some of our A&M fans can't seem to see outside their own little bubble... We were actually caught cheating, yet are quick to act like every other team must be doing it... but not us!
I know folks here don't like their basketball, but they should take a peak at A&M basketball as of late if they don't think you can all of a sudden recruit really well after some bad seasons without cheating, yet think A&M doesn't cheat.
Deputy Travis Junior
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Only on Texags will you see people claim a team can drift along and wind up in the national championship game by default.

Puff you chest about being in the best conference in America then complain that the other conferences have an easier road to the national title game than we do.
I mean what else would you call it? Here were the decent to good/great opponents on their schedule:

@Tennessee: OU was down 17-3 in the 4th quarter and the W had as much to do with Tenn collapsing as OU coming back.

@Baylor: OU scored a late TD to put it away, but this game was neck and neck for 50-55 minutes. Baylor was playing a true fish QB as their redshirt junior stats monster QB had just gone out with an injury

TCU: OU won by 1 at the very end when TCU failed to convert a 2 point conversion. Once again, the W came against a team that was missing its Heisman-contending star player.

@OSU: A good opponent that they legitimately dominated.

Anyway, I'm seeing a skin of their teeth W when the other team collapsed, a pair of victories against good teams that were very close despite both those teams playing without their star players, and a nice W against OSU. That's not even mentioning the loss to a legitimately awful Texas team.

I guess what I'm getting at is this: their two toughest games by far were TCU and Baylor. Both of those teams lost their starting QBs (who were absolutely vital to their respective offenses) right before their games with OU. OU still barely beat each of them. That takes a ton of luster off those Ws. Throw in a few other close victories over very mediocre teams, and the loss to Texas, and puts them in a very different light. They're remind me of FSU from last year except they have an inexcusable loss that the committee's decided to overlook for some reason.
Ragoo
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AG
quote:
quote:
Only on Texags will you see people claim a team can drift along and wind up in the national championship game by default.

Puff you chest about being in the best conference in America then complain that the other conferences have an easier road to the national title game than we do.
I mean what else would you call it? Here were the decent to good/great opponents on their schedule:

@Tennessee: OU was down 17-3 in the 4th quarter and the W had as much to do with Tenn collapsing as OU coming back.

@Baylor: OU scored a late TD to put it away, but this game was neck and neck for 50-55 minutes. Baylor was playing a true fish QB as their redshirt junior stats monster QB had just gone out with an injury

TCU: OU won by 1 at the very end when TCU failed to convert a 2 point conversion. Once again, the W came against a team that was missing its Heisman-contending star player.

@OSU: A good opponent that they legitimately dominated.

Anyway, I'm seeing a skin of their teeth W when the other team collapsed, a pair of victories against good teams that were very close despite both those teams playing without their star players, and a nice W against OSU. That's not even mentioning the loss to a legitimately awful Texas team.

I guess what I'm getting at is this: their two toughest games by far were TCU and Baylor. Both of those teams lost their starting QBs (who were absolutely vital to their respective offenses) right before their games with OU. OU still barely beat each of them. That takes a ton of luster off those Ws. Throw in a few other close victories over very mediocre teams, and the loss to Texas, and puts them in a very different light. They're remind me of FSU from last year except they have an inexcusable loss that the committee's decided to overlook for some reason.
agreed. why patterson decided to go for 2 instead of take the OT I will never figure out. TCU had the momentum. Go into OT and try and pull the upset.
Ragoo
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AG
quote:
The divide between A&M and Ole Miss this season was as wide as its been since 2012, and that's after both Sumlin and Freeze have had 4 years to recruit, coach, whatever you want to call and wherever you want to draw the lines.

the gap is so wide, yet so narrow that no one can definitely determine who is better or trending any which way. they can keep their PR salesman, we will keep ours. Hopefully ours has another trick up his sleeve that will turn the tide.
Joe Exotic
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quote:
Only on Texags will you see people claim a team can drift along and wind up in the national championship game by default.

Puff you chest about being in the best conference in America then complain that the other conferences have an easier road to the national title game than we do.
Except that it's true.
mhayden
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Massey Ratings put Oklahoma at #2.
Sagarin Ratings put Oklahoma at #2.

Associated Press puts Oklahoma at #3.
Coaches put Oklahoma at #4 (by the slimmest of margins).

Oklahoma's Strength-of-Schedule is Top 25 on almost every rating system.


If you think that Oklahoma isn't that good, is only there by default, and/or is not deserving of a playoff spot then you have an anti-Big12 bias that runs far too deep for you to evaluate college football intelligently.

Ragoo
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AG
quote:
Massey Ratings put Oklahoma at #2.
Sagarin Ratings put Oklahoma at #2.

Associated Press puts Oklahoma at #3.
Coaches put Oklahoma at #4 (by the slimmest of margins).

Oklahoma's Strength-of-Schedule is Top 25 on almost every rating system.


If you think that Oklahoma isn't that good, is only there by default, and/or is not deserving of a playoff spot then you have an anti-Big12 bias that runs far too deep for you to evaluate college football intelligently.


looking at sagarin, how is TCU #7 behind baylor? more wins, same losses, better schedule, better against top 10, same against top 30. What gives?
TXAggie2011
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AG
quote:
quote:
The divide between A&M and Ole Miss this season was as wide as its been since 2012, and that's after both Sumlin and Freeze have had 4 years to recruit, coach, whatever you want to call and wherever you want to draw the lines.

the gap is so wide, yet so narrow that no one can definitely determine who is better or trending any which way. they can keep their PR salesman, we will keep ours. Hopefully ours has another trick up his sleeve that will turn the tide.
You're delusional.

2015

Head-to-head: Ole Miss wins by 20 points.

Versus Common Opponents: Ole Miss is 5-1, A&M is 3-3.


Average score in those 6 games:

Ole Miss 37.5, opponent 28.

Texas A&M 20.5, opponent 21.


2014

Head-to-head: Ole Miss wins by 15 points.

Versus Common Opponents: Ole Miss is 2-3, A&M is 2-3.


Average score in those 5 games:

Ole Miss 18.5, opponent 22.

Texas A&M 24.8, opponent 33.

Joe Exotic
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AG
quote:
Massey Ratings put Oklahoma at #2.
Sagarin Ratings put Oklahoma at #2.

Associated Press puts Oklahoma at #3.
Coaches put Oklahoma at #4 (by the slimmest of margins).

Oklahoma's Strength-of-Schedule is Top 25 on almost every rating system.


If you think that Oklahoma isn't that good, is only there by default, and/or is not deserving of a playoff spot then you have an anti-Big12 bias that runs far too deep for you to evaluate college football intelligently.



Football games aren't played by computers. Or nerds. They have big weakness that will get exposed.
Ragoo
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AG
quote:
quote:
quote:
The divide between A&M and Ole Miss this season was as wide as its been since 2012, and that's after both Sumlin and Freeze have had 4 years to recruit, coach, whatever you want to call and wherever you want to draw the lines.

the gap is so wide, yet so narrow that no one can definitely determine who is better or trending any which way. they can keep their PR salesman, we will keep ours. Hopefully ours has another trick up his sleeve that will turn the tide.
You're delusional.

2015

Head-to-head: Ole Miss wins by 20 points.

Versus Common Opponents: Ole Miss is 5-1, A&M is 3-3.


Average score in those 6 games:

Ole Miss 37.5, opponent 28.

Texas A&M 20.5, opponent 21.


2014

Head-to-head: Ole Miss wins by 15 points.

Versus Common Opponents: Ole Miss is 2-3, A&M is 2-3.


Average score in those 5 games:

Ole Miss 18.5, opponent 22.

Texas A&M 24.8, opponent 33.


so not very far off at all. neat. the argument is so weak and blurry there is no point in having it.
Emilio Fantastico
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AG
The shortest and simplest reasons are:

Spav and the attrition of the 2013 recruiting class.
TXAggie2011
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AG
There is nothing weak and blurry about a 20 point head to head win, a 5-1 record versus a 3-3 record, and a 10 point difference in those 6 games.

Ole Miss was better this season. Everyone that's not a delusional Aggie knows it. Everyone that's not a delusional Aggie can see it. It was obvious.

If you'll promise to take off the dunce cap, I'll do the numbers back to 2012 and 2013 if you want if you want to see more evidence of the trend of the two programs. It'll be about as obvious as it is obvious Ole Miss is better than us right now.
ABATTBQ11
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quote:
quote:
mhayden gets it. We've talked on TexAgs for the last few years on how the Sooners recruiting has tanked. But they look pretty solid.


They look solid because of competition.


Beat Bama
Joe Exotic
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AG
quote:
quote:
quote:
mhayden gets it. We've talked on TexAgs for the last few years on how the Sooners recruiting has tanked. But they look pretty solid.


They look solid because of competition.


Beat Bama


This year? When did they play?
Ragoo
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AG
quote:
There is nothing weak and blurry about a 20 point head to head win, a 5-1 record versus a 3-3 record, and a 10 point difference in those 6 games.

Ole Miss was better this season. Everyone that's not a delusional Aggie knows it. Everyone that's not a delusional Aggie can see it. It was obvious.

If you'll promise to take off the dunce cap, I'll do the numbers back to 2012 and 2013 if you want if you want to see more evidence of the trend of the two programs. It'll be about as obvious as it is obvious Ole Miss is better than us right now.
well no crap Ole miss is better than us, right now. no one is arguing otherwise. in a 2 year snap shot they have done a much better job winning an extra game each year. does that really make them a trending up program? not really.
mhayden
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quote:
quote:
Massey Ratings put Oklahoma at #2.
Sagarin Ratings put Oklahoma at #2.

Associated Press puts Oklahoma at #3.
Coaches put Oklahoma at #4 (by the slimmest of margins).

Oklahoma's Strength-of-Schedule is Top 25 on almost every rating system.


If you think that Oklahoma isn't that good, is only there by default, and/or is not deserving of a playoff spot then you have an anti-Big12 bias that runs far too deep for you to evaluate college football intelligently.



Football games aren't played by computers. Or nerds. They have big weakness that will get exposed.


It's a perfect system... If a Big 12 team loses it's because they were exposed. If an SEC team loses it's because they weren't up for playing that game or one game doesn't really tell you anything.
aggiehawg
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AG
quote:
It's a perfect system... If a Big 12 team loses it's because they were exposed. If an SEC team loses it's because they weren't up for playing that game or one game doesn't really tell you anything.


<cough> CLEMSON <cough>.
Joe Exotic
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AG
Do you believe the talent is similar between the two leagues?
Lonestar1
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AG
Spav is not their OC. EOT
mhayden
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quote:
Do you believe the talent is similar between the two leagues?

From a pure athletic standpoint I believe the SEC to be better by a decent gap -- though not the chasm like some want to believe.

But what some of you seem to be continually brainwashed by is that more NFL draft picks or more Rivals stars = the better college football team.

Talent is one aspect of a team. One BIG aspect. But it's not the only aspect. If it were, then the saying of "any given Sunday" (or Saturday) wouldn't exist. Schemes, coaching, playcalling, motivation, luck, etc... all play a factor.

And at the end of the day, no one cares how talented you were if you don't win. Nationals fans aren't going to be thinking back fondly on that great 2015 season with all that talent. But the Royals sure will.

Ohio State was the national champion last season. They had zero first round NFL draft picks. One second rounder.

That's why some of us shake our heads when some fans say publicly we have a better program than TCU, Baylor... or hell even early this year Oklahoma. We don't. Nobody that watches football thinks that. Not the writers, not the coaches, not the computers.

Do we have more potential? Abso-effin-lutely.

You have to win the games though.
Ragoo
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AG
mhayden, can you comment on my question regarding baylor ahead of tcu in Sagarin? Just curious what in the formula is driving that.

thanks
mhayden
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mhayden, can you comment on my question regarding baylor ahead of tcu in Sagarin? Just curious what in the formula is driving that.

thanks

Possibly due to Baylor getting a big road win (where TCU had no big road wins).

But probably has more to do with point differential, as Sagarin does take that into account... So a game like Baylor @ TCU, where it went to overtime probably didn't count against Baylor as a team that is 2-3 points ahead of their opponent that they take to overtime on the road I'm guessing counts as a wash. It's like a 3pt underdog losing by 3... It played out as expected based on the ratings.
Joe Exotic
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AG
Why did the Big 12 take such an ass kicking during bowl season last year? Why do talented players avoid it like the plague? Why do they fail to put players into the NFL? Why don't they have any big out of conference wins?
mhayden
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Why did the Big 12 take such an ass kicking during bowl season last year? Why do talented players avoid it like the plague? Why do they fail to put players into the NFL? Why don't they have any big out of conference wins?

Question 1: They went 2-5 in the bowls. Same as the mighty SEC West.

Question 3 answers Question 2: The SEC gives them a better chance of playing in the NFL.

Question 4: Who did the SEC West beat out of conference?
MSU/SECALUM
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How many coaches have you lost since you joined the SEC? That hasn't helped your situation and with the talent you have you are under performing and the lack of a stable coaching staff is a huge part of it. How many 4 & 5 stars qbs do you have and how do all these guys seem to be so inconsistent? Compare these things to Ole Miss. Chavis left LSU because his defense had to win games because LSU's offense couldn't score enough points and now he's in the same situation he was at LSU. .

I think Sumlin's seat gets extremely hot in 2016 along with Stoops at UK, Mason at Vanderbilt & Malzahn at Auburn. Butch Jones at Tennessee could also be on the hot seat and I don't think anything less than a 10-2 season will save him.

Ou's good they've won games they needed to win but the last 3 games have been against 2nd & 3rd string qb's. I still don't think the Big 12 deserves a seat at the table unless they play a 13th game and that loss to Texas is unforgivable. How would OU be doing with their back up qb?
SAR Ag
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Everyone claiming Ole Miss pays off recruits, you don't think we have a shadow network of boosters that also does this? I mean seriously, glass house.

http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2014/4/10/5594348/college-football-bag-man-interview
Great article, btw. Thanks for posting.

However, the fact we have more $$$, better facilities, can recruit Texas, but STILL aren't competitive may be prima facie evidence that we do not have a significant shadow network of boosters. Plus, I think some older boosters may still be gun-shy from the middle 90s Gilbert fiasco. Finally, I'm unconvinced that the black and white thinking engineers and ex-military geeks, in our culture, could possess sufficient subtlety to succeed in this type of enterprise (read the article). But give us time. The pressure has never been greater, and we have a young, hungry generation of New Army that isn't familiar with Gilbert, Sherrill, SMU, etc. They just want to WIN.
aggiehawg
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AG
SEC WINS COACHES HIRED SINCE 2011:

1. Hugh Freeze; 17 (17-15)
1. Kevin Sumlin: 17 (17-15)
3. Gus Malzahn: 14 (14-11)
4. Butch Jones: 10 (10-14)
5. Jim McElwain: 7 (7-1)
5. Bert Bielema: 7 (7-17)
7. Mark Stoops: 4 (4-20)
8. Derek Mason: 2 (2-14)

Hmm, imagine that.
mhayden
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I'm not saying who I think is a better coach, but...

Hugh Freeze ineheirted a 2-10 team that not only went winless in conference, but lost by an average of 24+ points in SEC play.

The 2011 team lost to Vandy by 23. They lost to Kentucky by 27.

In football, not basketball.

Took over a 2-10 team and won 7 games, then 8 games, then 9 games and now has a chance to win a 10th this year. In the last two seasons his team has still been in contention for the SEC title in mid-November.


Sumlin took over a 7-6 team and won 11 games, 9 games, 8 games and now has a chance to win a 9th this year. In his first season his team was in SEC title contention up until the last week of the season (someone correct me if I'm wrong there), but then we were out of title contention by October in the following 3 seasons.


I'm not saying Freeze is a better coach, but I don't think there's any doubt who shows to be trending up.
Ragoo
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AG
quote:
How many coaches have you lost since you joined the SEC? That hasn't helped your situation and with the talent you have you are under performing and the lack of a stable coaching staff is a huge part of it. How many 4 & 5 stars qbs do you have and how do all these guys seem to be so inconsistent? Compare these things to Ole Miss. Chavis left LSU because his defense had to win games because LSU's offense couldn't score enough points and now he's in the same situation he was at LSU. .

I think Sumlin's seat gets extremely hot in 2016 along with Stoops at UK, Mason at Vanderbilt & Malzahn at Auburn. Butch Jones at Tennessee could also be on the hot seat and I don't think anything less than a 10-2 season will save him.

Ou's good they've won games they needed to win but the last 3 games have been against 2nd & 3rd string qb's. I still don't think the Big 12 deserves a seat at the table unless they play a 13th game and that loss to Texas is unforgivable. How would OU be doing with their back up qb?
good point about coaches. Since smiling has been here we've been a revolving door of assistants.
DGAG92
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AG
Titties and beer.
Maroon Flash
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OM recruiting territory is a kiddie pool compared to our Olympic Pool.

They go out of state and buy recruits. It is as simple as that.
DadsanAG
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You got spunk, mhayden, I'll give you that. You're fighting one hell of an uphill battle, though I obviously agree with everything you've said.
Swing Your Saber
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quote:
You're delusional.

2015

Head-to-head: Ole Miss wins by 20 points.

Versus Common Opponents: Ole Miss is 5-1, A&M is 3-3.


Average score in those 6 games:

Ole Miss 37.5, opponent 28.

Texas A&M 20.5, opponent 21.


2014

Head-to-head: Ole Miss wins by 15 points.

Versus Common Opponents: Ole Miss is 2-3, A&M is 2-3.


Average score in those 5 games:

Ole Miss 18.5, opponent 22.

Texas A&M 24.8, opponent 33.

I'm not saying who I think is a better coach, but...

Hugh Freeze ineheirted a 2-10 team that not only went winless in conference, but lost by an average of 24+ points in SEC play.

The 2011 team lost to Vandy by 23. They lost to Kentucky by 27.

In football, not basketball.

Took over a 2-10 team and won 7 games, then 8 games, then 9 games and now has a chance to win a 10th this year. In the last two seasons his team has still been in contention for the SEC title in mid-November.


Sumlin took over a 7-6 team and won 11 games, 9 games, 8 games and now has a chance to win a 9th this year. In his first season his team was in SEC title contention up until the last week of the season (someone correct me if I'm wrong there), but then we were out of title contention by October in the following 3 seasons.


I'm not saying Freeze is a better coach, but I don't think there's any doubt who shows to be trending up.
Margin of victory is by far the best simple metric rating team quality. Ole Miss has been getting progressively better while we have become progressively worse on offense, & had to make major changes to fix our defense. Win loss records are a poor indicator of how good a team actually is, the difference between an 8-4 team that is close in all its games and 8-4 with four double digit losses is huge. Add in the fact Sumlin inherited an all world offense, significantly better facilities, & a vastly better recruiting base it is pretty clear Freeze is the better coach and trending in a better direction. Now Freeze has not suffered Sumlin's coaching staff turnover. Continuity is important. Freeze has not dealt with the implosion of the '13 recruiting class (which effectively set our program back a year or more). Depending on how much blame you assign to Sumlin for hiring Spav, and how much of a pass he gets for the lost continuity &/or how much blame/pass he gets for '13 you could say Sumlin is almost as good. But claiming he is as good or better is foolish. Maybe Sumlin absolutely crushes this new hire (as I think he will) & we play lights out moving forward. Combined with all his other advantages we could play for a Natty in '16 or later. It is possible. But if Ole Miss had hired Sumlin, would he have taken a 2-10 Ole Miss to 9-3 in year 4? I doubt it. Would Freeze have taken 7-6 A&M to 10-2 (or better) in year four? I think he would.

Final Note: We all have bag men, Ole Miss might have better ones but they probably don't. We have a significantly larger and wealthier fan base. We have more player (and alumni) arrests. I see no reason to think our larger fan base could not offer as much or more than Ole Miss, or our players would (as an aggregate) be more likely to turn down money than Ole Miss's athletes.
 
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