Brewmaster said:

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I know real estate is due for a pullback, but I can't help but think it also rockets even more (if inflation goes sky high, along with metals).

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What makes you say this? Commercial RE? SFH? Multi?

I think Heineken mentioned this (real estate is due for a pullback part). I added the rest, real estate is a hard asset right? Fiat U.S. dollars are not, we have printed 10x as much money as we had in the late 70's, but inflation is up roughly 3x in that time span. Not trying to paint a doomsday scenario, but just some food for thought.

I just read Heineken's posts on the previous page, "70's and 80's, but on a grander scale". That should give everyone, even our resident perma bull BES, a bit of concern.

on that note, Spoony, you got any land you can sell me? I'll brew the beer, you raise the chickens and eggs! maybe beer and goats? lol

Hey, I am ready for the pullback. Have been taking profits and setting cash aside. Bring it.

I just don't think we're entering a period that's going to mirror what we've gotten used to. As I've said before, to service the debt, the treasury will have to sell more and more treasuries and we're already putting a ton out in the market. Even if rates come down a bit short term, the FED doesn't have the capacity to buy them all.

Think of it this way.. even at lower rates, the debt is still growing at $1T every 100 days. And as it matures, it has to be rolled at new rates. Even with lower rates, we're still having to issue more and more debt which increases the balance to be repaid. So even in a rate dropping environment, the interest payment on the debt won't necessarily get much better. Maybe for a couple years there's a short reprieve. But without inflation coming down, and especially with inflation rising (which is likely in a stimulating rate environment), thst interest will continue to grow. It's a nasty chain that is incurable at this point. And if the FED is limited on treasuries they can purchase, it puts more and more pressure on the secondary markets, largely foreign governments and central banks who will start demanding higher and higher returns which pushes market rates up higher and higher.

Whether rates drop or not doesn't matter. What unavoidable is that the next decade is likely to feature significantly higher rates than where they are today and bond prices that act crash like. That's why I say to avoid long term treasuries.

And it really doesn't matter who is president. Unless they are willing to start pretty extreme austerity, the damage was done a long time ago. Moving forward will be disaster control with a president who is prudent (not sure either are) and gasoline on the fire if it's Biden or a Biden type.