https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/13/europe/russia-surging-on-frontlines-analysis-intl/index.html

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The changing language used by the Ukrainian military in 72 hours of daily updates tells the story: "Ongoing defensive fighting." "Significantly worsened." Russian "tactical success."

You rarely ever hear Kyiv's top brass sounding downbeat, but their steep southerly trajectory reflects the grave place Ukraine finds itself in. Russia is not just advancing slowly in one place; it appears to be advancing in four, across the frontline.

Moscow knows it is on the clock: in about a month, the $61billion of US military aid will start to translate into Ukraine having the weapons it has been begging for. So, Russian President Vladimir Putin seems to be throwing whatever he can at it, knowing the fight will likely only get tougher for his forces in the summer ahead.

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Most war reporters have little understanding of warfare. What happens if the Russians attack Kharkiv. That is the meat and potatoes. I see a significantly bloody battle.

There is no real NCO corps in the Russian Army, so the conscripted ranks are set free on each other every night in the barracks. Since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the problem has gotten much worse, with the more senior recruits preying on the weak ones from the newer recruits in the conscription cycle. The whole organization is designed to give people leverage over others for them to exploit.

chiphijason said:

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There is no real NCO corps in the Russian Army, so the conscripted ranks are set free on each other every night in the barracks. Since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the problem has gotten much worse, with the more senior recruits preying on the weak ones from the newer recruits in the conscription cycle. The whole organization is designed to give people leverage over others for them to exploit.

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That perspective is infinitely apropos to the Russian military. I would not trade my tank commanders for Russian tank commanders. Mine would be 100 times better.

Russia attempting to destroy evidence of its extensive war crimes. "The hackers' aim? To obtain even delete evidence of war crimes and help Russians arrested in Ukraine to "avoid prosecution and move them back to Russia." Russia's interest in meddling with the prosecution of alleged war crimes is blatant."

HACKING

NM: Looks like it's cleaned up.

Russian and Ukrainian sources are reporting about powerful explosions in temporarily occupied Sevastopol and Yevpatoria in Crimea right now after a series of missile strikes, allegedly Storm Shadow missiles.

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) May 14, 2024

I don't know which news sources are stating ethnic Russians in Ukraine are treated so poorly that Putin's impetus of invading Ukraine is to protect the ethnic Russians. Those news sources exist because protecting the ethnic Russians is a reoccurring theme.

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Explosions were reported in Sumy

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2024/15-may-explosions-were-reported-in-sumy

Russia is telegraphing an invasion of Sumy.

74OA said:

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Russia attempting to destroy evidence of its extensive war crimes. "The hackers' aim? To obtain even delete evidence of war crimes and help Russians arrested in Ukraine to "avoid prosecution and move them back to Russia." Russia's interest in meddling with the prosecution of alleged war crimes is blatant."

HACKING

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You'd think they'd just disappear or fall out a window in a country as "corrupt" as Ukraine...

Sitrep.

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Even as of this writing, the Ukrainian General Staff has announced a withdrawal of Volchansk, the largest city and stronghold of northern Kharkov region, though it's unclear as of yet if it's a full or partial one, as the wording is ambiguous:

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Russian forces have now even gotten within artillery range of Kharkov city itself, and there are reports they are hammering AFU positions on Kharkov outskirts from about 22-24km in Glyboke/Hlyboke.

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"We have no reserves"
Ukraine's military intelligence chief Budanov admitted to the New York Times that the situation is bad:

"The situation is on the edge," Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Ukraine's military intelligence agency said in a video call from a bunker in Kharkiv. "Every hour this situation moves toward critical."

"All of our forces are either here or in Chasiv Yar. I've used everything we have. Unfortunately, we don't have anyone else in the reserves."

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Blinken's jam session in Kiev seems not to have been particularly timely. May 21 rumors of a coup are interesting. More at the link.

There is no denying that Ukraine has manpower limitations, that Russia has converted to a wartime economy, that the West has hollowed out our industrial base to the point that we can't replace weapon stockpiles as fast as we are depleting them, can't match Russian production of artillery shells, or even deny that Russia has improved their command and control over the past two years.

All of those things have impacts on the tactical discussions. How much of an impact it is compared to Russia's strategic weaknesses depends on the leanings of the sources assessing such things.

Tactical updates and analysis regardless of the sources leanings should be welcome on this thread. What we don't need in this thread are derailments regarding Burisma and their board members, random comments from politicians, or arguments about whether we should even be involved.

Budgets drive when defense industries can commit to production of weapons, munitions, weapons systems, and equipment. Unfortunately, production will have to catch up with the demand for said items because the money was not available for a period of time.

Simple siege warfare. Our taxes are prolonging the attrition.

Russians have definitely changed their tactics. They are using very little armor.

Initial Reports coming from Russian Sources that Sevastopol International Airport also known as Belbek Military Airfield in Russian-Occupied Crimea has been Attacked by what is believed to be several Long-Range Variants of the MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS). pic.twitter.com/6oij2Hc7t9

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) May 14, 2024

Pretty good summary:

Rybar Live: Special military operation, May 13-14
Mikhail Zvinchuk, head of the Russian think tank Rybar: «Under Avdiivka, we are continuing our offensive north of Arkhangelskoye and Ocheretino. According to unconfirmed reports, we have already managed to reach the outskirts in… pic.twitter.com/lBzBUJ1L9a

— Rybar Force (@rybar_force) May 15, 2024

ATACMS have hit some stuff in Crimea the past day, but some also have been shot down.

⚡️🇷🇺First proof of at least some ATACMS being shot down in Crimea:

Dear residents of Sevastopol!

After the ATACMS missiles were shot down, undetonated submunitions scattered in the North Side area.

The M74 submunition is a steel shell filled with explosive. When impacted and… pic.twitter.com/irbQQODQav

— SIMPLICIUS Ѱ (@simpatico771) May 15, 2024

Kiev blames Russian advance on US policy: they are sending another delegation to DC to request changes.

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"We saw their military sitting one or two kilometers from the border inside Russia and there was nothing we could do about that," one of the lawmakers, Aleksandra Ustinova, told the news outlet.

Kharkov Region borders Russia's Belgorod Region. Kiev has launched multiple attacks inside it using drones, rocket artillery, and short-range missiles. Civilian deaths have been reported on a weekly basis in villages close to Kiev-controlled territory and the regional capital Belgorod.

In March, militants backed by the Ukrainian military made multiple attempts to seize settlements in several Russian border regions. President Vladimir Putin said at the time that a buffer zone along the border may be necessary to stop Ukrainian attacks.

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Czech president also called for a ceasefire/truce/negotiations.

AtticusMatlock said:

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Russians have definitely changed their tactics. They are using very little armor.

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Maneuver warfare with tanks vs. modern drone environment is really very different now than in the 80's etc. They have also changed a lot of their leadership/structures. Early on in the war too much of the 'siege' stuff like around Bakhmut was with Wagner conscript units.

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Russian aviation launching glide bombs towards Vovchansk

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2024/15-may-russian-aviation-launching-glide-bombs-towards-vovchansk

Also reports of street fighting in Vovchansk.

https://t.me/channel24_ua/132795

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Russian Ministry of Defense claims control over Lukiantsi and Hlyboke villages

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2024/15-may-russian-ministry-of-defense-claims-control-over-lukiantsi

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Several aircraft were damaged as result of missile attack in Belbeck

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2024/15-may-several-aircraft-were-damaged-as-result-of-missile

https://t.me/Tsaplienko/53798

The Russians will use armor again. Light infantry alone will not win the major battles.

Russia's Achilles heel in this war has always been maintaining long logistic lines to support an advance. That hasn't changed. They can advance a few miles from established lines but going further than that you need to move more, and you need high maintenance heavy vehicles and equipment. Those supply lines and equipment are then susceptible to the exact type of weapons we are currently sending to Ukraine as fast as we can.

Yep. While there's plenty of Russian cheerleaders lauding the offensive, they don't seem to realize Ukraine's defenses are much further inside the borders on purpose. Let them slog through the grey zone and lightly defended border towns while the Ukes are waiting behind prepared defenses with open ground in front.

Teslag said:

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Russia's Achilles heel in this war has always been maintaining long logistic lines to support an advance. That hasn't changed. They can advance a few miles from established lines but going further than that you need to move more, and you need high maintenance heavy vehicles and equipment. Those supply lines and equipment are then susceptible to the exact type of weapons we are currently sending to Ukraine as fast as we can.

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Russians suck at almost everything.

Ukraine consolidates defense around Kharkiv and other notes. Red on map in link is recent Russian gains.

UPDATES

GAC06 said:

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Perhaps the Russian cope outlets are right about shooting down ATACMS

As claimed, the first footages showing the aftermath of the ATACMS strike on Russian Belbek military airfield, near Sevastopol, Crimea.

P.S: 92N6 radar of the S-400 missile system. https://t.co/pZuZmgqSiA pic.twitter.com/ZzOAyg6oQX

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 15, 2024

It appears this S-400 took out an ATACM by tricking it into flying apart and dispensing bomblets all over its position.

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Detailed report on ATACMS strike. AIRBASE

AgLA06 said:

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Yep. While there's plenty of Russian cheerleaders lauding the offensive, they don't seem to realize Ukraine's defenses are much further inside the borders on purpose. Let them slog through the grey zone and lightly defended border towns while the Ukes are waiting behind prepared defenses with open ground in front.

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Facts:
- The Russians suck at maneuver warfare.
- The Russians will have to maneuver through a lot of open terrain to attack Kharkiv.
- The Russians will need to increase their force significantly.
- The Russians will use armor to attack Kharkiv.

Assumptions:
- The Ukrainians will fight from in and around Kharkiv.
- The Ukrainians will use all the available weapons systems they have.
- The Ukrainians will try to conceal their vehicles and weapons systems.
- The Russians will not have enough forces to completely surround Kharkiv.
- The Russians will resort to WWI tactics on the ground.

Unknown:
- The amount of munitions and supplies to carry out a major defensive operation.

It's mind boggling how many S-400s Russia has lost now. Incredible.

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At Kharkiv axis clashes near Vovchansk, clearing operation ongoing in north-west of the town, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2024/15-may-at-kharkiv-axis-clashes-near-vovchansk-clearing-operation

As long as Ukraine suckers them into a border kill zone and then hits them in the open and counterattacks before they dig in, they can inflict considerable losses. Russia has resorted to grinding small unit infantry attacks winning a farm field at a time, losing a few dozen in combat forces for each. That methodically slowly advances the front but at great cost.

MouthBQ98 said:

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As long as Ukraine suckers them into a border kill zone and then hits them in the open and counterattacks before they dig in, they can inflict considerable losses. Russia has resorted to grinding small unit infantry attacks winning a farm field at a time, losing a few dozen in combat forces for each. That methodically slowly advances the front but at great cost.

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The Ukrainians love the Bardleys for their maneuver, firepower, and armor. They would tear up the Russian light infantry.

I read that the Ukrainians are not using the M1 tanks for their traditional role of fire and maneuver which leads me to believe they are using them for their firepower. Attack by fire instead of fire and maneuver.

Yes, they cannot mass then because it draws drone and artillery fire, so they have learned to use them in 1's and 2's for fire support and suppression. They apparently really like the Bradley because it can zip in, unload some infantry for a small attack, and hammer the enemy positions, and it has turned out to be really good at keeping the personnel inside alive and mostly unharmed if it is hit, and they know it can defeat opposing armor in a pinch as long as it can see the target first.