Teslag said:

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I'm personally doubtful anything in those tweets is remotely accurate.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/zelensky-ukraine-defends-northern-kharkiv-165630762.html

Quote:

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Ukraine's military said that Moscow's troops had been contained in the "gray zone" border villages, while Russia alleged the capture of five local settlements: Pletenivka, Ohirtseve, Borysivka, Pylne, and Strilecha.

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Ukraine is holding, and Russia is talking.

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I've seen it suggested that those villages are intentionally not strong holding spots. They've likely been abandoned for a while. Vovchansk is going to be the bigger animal for Russia to try and tackle.

The Russians have 35,000 troops moving in the direction of Kharkiv. They better get a **** ton more troops because the city is 135 square miles in size. The Germans had a million soldiers, and they could not surround and secure Stalingrad in WWII. The other moderating variable is the posture of the Ukrainian forces. What do they have to defend the city with?

Teslag said:

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Russians still blowing up Patriot decoys.

Russian Sources released Footage today showing a 9K720 Iskander-M Short-Range Ballistic Missile Strike against what appears to have been a Wooden and/or Metal Decoy of an Ukrainian MIM-104 “Patriot” Surface-to-Air Missile Battery with a AN/MPQ-65 Radar in the Zaporizhzhia Region. pic.twitter.com/OlQ8G5ffOM

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) May 11, 2024

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Pretty crappy CEP, figures....

Source: Reuters, Times of India. https://t.co/EW15A1NqVl

— Deep Barot (@deepbarot) May 12, 2024

India has a substantial aviation/defense sector, but not sure what they would really provide that would be common to the Russian forces, I don't think they employ Russian spec artillery sizes for instance.

❗️🇷🇺🇺🇦 Slobozhanskoe direction

▪️ Since nightfall, the enemy has begun to carry out counter-attacks, using FPV drones and Baba Yaga-type octocopters, as well as increased indiscriminate shelling of the Belgorod region and sabotage activities. Despite claims by the AFU General… pic.twitter.com/9fxLOETryU

— Rybar Force (@rybar_force) May 11, 2024

UFA have continued shelling Belgorod.

[url=https://youtu.be/xAF1d2WYjDY][/url]

docb said:

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Indiscriminate shelling of Belgorod? We'll boo hoo. Maybe they should not have invaded Ukraine. Or maybe Russia should not have completely annihilated cities like Mariupol and Bakmut. If Ukraine had the capability to level Moscow I would not care. It would be pure karma.

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I went frame by frame on the video released so far. No indication of any sort of projectile. Zero. And I do this a lot since I like to see precisely where munitions hit on objects to gauge full effects. I can even see the still frame where the facade starts to deform outward from the internal pressure before it fails. From parking lot angle at least, I am pretty damn sure it was not a missile and an arty bullet makes even less sense plus also would be visible on footage. Only thing I can think of it was the Ukes was the impact was on the other side of the building perhaps from the video cams we have access to?

Weird event and anyone else but Russia, I would be wondering how an adversarial nation did it with the video coverage so far. But since it IS Russia, just going to assume it was Russia itself. Hell, another Islamic terror attack makes more sense than the Ukes. Course Russia will blame ISIS on Ukraine too...

Russian army bombing Ukrainian positions on the road north of Lyptky@UAControlMap @GeoConfirmed

50.238775, 36.436705 https://t.co/Gb1BxpdnU2 pic.twitter.com/MIDkh0eCey

— Clément Molin (@clement_molin) May 12, 2024

It appears the defenses in the gray zone of Northern Kharkiv were not very robust for some reason.

nvm, tweet was deleted.

Waffledynamics said:

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It appears the defenses in the gray zone of Northern Kharkiv were not very robust for some reason.

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It is much easier to prepare for significant defensive operations to take advantage of the terrain, positioning troops and weapons systems at appropriate locations for the utility of them, designated the priority of work or tasks, develop obstacles, locations for maintenance and essential services, covering dead spots, set up supply points and routes, tie in units together to create a comprehensive plan, establish good communication and command and control. A mobile defense will be significantly more complicated. One of the US Principles of War is Simplicity.

I would like to know what the terrain looks like North of the city. That will most likely help determine how the Ukrainians will fight. Are there hills, flat land, forests, natural obstacles like rivers?

Large units going on the offense is ten times more difficult and complex than going on the defense. Therefore, I don't have confidence the Russians can quickly execute decisive offensive operations to take the city. In general, the soldiers are not trained well, the generals are not good, and their logistics to support can suck, and centralized decision making will most likely result in an army executing plodding operations.



For those who say I steal from other sources, I stole and plagiarized my narratives from: FM 3-0 Operations (army.mil)

Agreed. Not sure the real adequacy of mines/defensive postures/lines yet.

Shoigu sacked. His replacement sounds like he is likely to continue focus on cleaning up corruption/ramping up economic focus on military procurement, such as problems over an extended time period with the T-14 etc.

Longish thread speculating on the Kharkiv front; it's again too early to figure out defenses/adequacy/quantity of forces engaged imho.

And of course i can add this firm image : a lot of Russian bombing. 3 Bridges on Siversky Donets river destroyed including the big one in Stary Saltiv. pic.twitter.com/JYRg6yQTRH

— Clément Molin (@clement_molin) May 12, 2024

No discussion about how Shoigu got axed yet? Looking forward to nortex explaining how this is Russia's invasion going as planned.

shoigu got shoigued https://t.co/tbsIndk2Q8

— The Intel Crab (@IntelCrab) May 12, 2024

Edit: he beat me to it!

https://t.me/officer_alex33/2788

Quote:

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Kharkiv region. At the moment, the enemy has entered the line of Strilecha, Hlyboke, Morokhovets, Oleynikovo, Lukyantsi, Zelene, Ohirtseve, is holding the northern part of Gatyshche, and fighting continues on the northern outskirts of Vovchansk. The enemy is carrying out assaults in the direction of Ustinka and Liptsi. It is worth noting that assaults are carried out exclusively by infantry forces (up to a platoon), almost no equipment is used.

Everyone wrote today about the escalation in the Kharkiv region, I didn't quite understand this, because relative to the previous 2 days - today, the enemy's advances were minimal.

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Give those boys some Ma Deuces.

He's probably gonna get a well deserved penthouse with new windows as part of his severance package.

Quote:

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The General Staff of Ukraine regarding the events in the Kharkiv direction: - Combat operations continue in the directions Pylna - Lukyantsi, Pylna - Hlyboke, Pylna - Oliynikove, Murom - Buhruvatka. Russian troops carrying out assaults in the directions of Strilecha - Hlyboke, Oliynikovo - Hlyboke, Oliynikovo - Lukyantsi, Murom - Staritsa, Pletenivka - Tyche. - Fighting continues for the border town of Vovchansk

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2024/12-may-the-general-staff-of-ukraine-regarding-the-events

sclaff said:

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What I saw was a lot of farmland which gives me the impression the Russians will have to maneuver in open terrain which gives the Ukrainians in the defense an advantage because they had time to set up their defensive operations.

Sitrep. Several interpretations of the Shoigu move, I dunno, again. His replacement:

Quote:

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Furthermore, it's said he's a severe technologist and drone tech enthusiast who will focus the Russian defense production on the needed directions. In the recent round table session with frontline commanders, you'll recall that Putin specifically conveyed Russia's intentions to concentrate on UGV ground bot development.

It's no coincidence that the 'drone guy' is then suddenly hired for the job. Look for this appointment to be very bullish for Russian drone advancement.

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Julian is a Ukrainian partisan: (google translate)

Quote:

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Day 3 of the Russian offensive on the north of the Kharkiv region and the full extent of the tragedy is only becoming apparent bit by bit.

Two more villages (photos) have now been confirmed to be in Russian hands. This brings the total number of captured villages to at least six since Friday.

Both north of Kharkiv and around Volchansk, Russia is advancing 20 km in width.

Ukrainian activists now admit that dozens to more than a hundred armored vehicles and hundreds, if not thousands, of Putin's soldiers are in action.

Three more small villages north of Kharkiv fell yesterday.

All three were described by President Zelensky as combat zones, i.e. part of the defense line.

Contrary to all "hopes" and claims that the Russians do not have enough men and material in this region, they are currently superior to the Ukrainian defenders on the ground and are continuing to advance.

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Drei weitere kleine Dörfer nördlich von Charkiw sind gestern gefallen.

➡️Alle drei wurden von Präsident Selenskyj als Kampfgebiet, also Teil der Verteidigungslinie, beschrieben.

➡️Entgegen aller „Hoffnungen“ und Behauptungen, die Russen hätten nicht genügend Männer und… pic.twitter.com/bxFMcn1XMK

— Julian Röpcke🇺🇦 (@JulianRoepcke) May 12, 2024

The "fog of war" covers the areas to the east of the city: an offensive is underway from the direction of Tikhe, but the scale of the advance is still unclear.

But judging by the strikes of the Ukrainian artillery deployed in Rubizhne and Pechenihy, Russian troops managed to…

— Rybar Force (@rybar_force) May 13, 2024

The Siverskyi Donets River is the most prominent geographical feature in the immediate area and poses as a major obstacle that divides Kharkiv from land to the east that stretches to Kupyansk and Dvorichna.

If this Russian offensive is for real and this is not a feign to draw… pic.twitter.com/fpVEcwO5By

— Evergreen Intel (@vcdgf555) May 13, 2024

Trying to only post one or two updates a day with a couple/few tweets. It's helpful if you don't quote the whole thing I think. Thx!

nortex97 said:

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Trying to only post one or two updates a day with a couple/few tweets. It's helpful if you don't quote the whole thing I think. Thx!

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You're correct. I deleted the tweets from my response.

Not *****ing at you, just trying to keep this thread clean and easy to read.

I suspect/have suspected that Ukraine has just reached a limit on manpower. They don't have enough to stop the Russians at this point and while I'm sure they're inflicting a ton of casualties... yeah it's probably not enough.

aezmvp said:

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I suspect/have suspected that Ukraine has just reached a limit on manpower. They don't have enough to stop the Russians at this point and while I'm sure they're inflicting a ton of casualties... yeah it's probably not enough.

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Maybe. I have a feeling it has less to do with manpower or more to do with not being able to equip, train, or arm them. They can drop the age and draft more now if they needed. You have to remember, Russia can hit anywhere in country so they are limited in massing large training facilities.

aezmvp said:

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I suspect/have suspected that Ukraine has just reached a limit on manpower. They don't have enough to stop the Russians at this point and while I'm sure they're inflicting a ton of casualties... yeah it's probably not enough.

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Didn't they just pass some legislation a couple weeks ago to lower the conscription age in order to enact further mobilization?

I suspect they're still in the early stages of working through that and as a result reconstituting their force.

My understanding is the main defensive lines were built back from the front so they could be constructed not under artillery and drone attack, and that the Russian forces have not reached them yet.

MouthBQ98 said:

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My understanding is the main defensive lines were built back from the front so they could be constructed not under artillery and drone attack, and that the Russian forces have not reached them yet.

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I think you are correct. The Ukrainians will focus on putting all the eggs in one basket because it is easier and more efficient. There are many facets to conducting defensive operations for large units.

Agreed. They aren't South Korea that can go toe to toe at the border. It's pretty smart actually to allow the grey zone to be a buffer to slow an assault over the border. Wit the main defenses behind it allows reaction from reserves / air support as needed and stretches the Russian advance out.

AgLA06 said:

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Agreed. They aren't South Korea that can go toe to toe at the border. It's pretty smart actually to allow the grey zone to be a buffer to slow an assault over the border. Wit the main defenses behind it allows reaction from reserves / air support as needed and stretches the Russian advance out.

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Generally speaking, to reach a city entails maneuvering in the open ground. The Russians will have to maneuver across much farmland to reach Kharkiv. The Ukrainians will have time to "hide" their vehicles. This gives the Ukrainians a notable advantage being in the defense. The Russians will have intelligence, but it matters less in the heat of the battle. Also, the Russians suck at maneuver warfare. It's too complex for them. The so what is the Russians are incapable of planning and executing large unit offensive operations in fast and decisive operations.

AgLA06 said:

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aezmvp said:

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I suspect/have suspected that Ukraine has just reached a limit on manpower. They don't have enough to stop the Russians at this point and while I'm sure they're inflicting a ton of casualties... yeah it's probably not enough.

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Maybe. I have a feeling it has less to do with manpower or more to do with not being able to equip, train, or arm them. They can drop the age and draft more now if they needed. You have to remember, Russia can hit anywhere in country so they are limited in massing large training facilities.

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Train in Poland?

Ag with kids said:

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AgLA06 said:

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aezmvp said:

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I suspect/have suspected that Ukraine has just reached a limit on manpower. They don't have enough to stop the Russians at this point and while I'm sure they're inflicting a ton of casualties... yeah it's probably not enough.

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Maybe. I have a feeling it has less to do with manpower or more to do with not being able to equip, train, or arm them. They can drop the age and draft more now if they needed. You have to remember, Russia can hit anywhere in country so they are limited in massing large training facilities.

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Train in Poland?

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They have troops training in like a half dozen countries.

Excellent "big picture" article. Beyond discussing the reasons for the recent dismissal of Russia's defense minister, it also works through the revolving door of Putin's corrupt cronies, the state of the Russian industrial effort and the role of China.

"Asked to comment on Shoigu's new assignment and his replacement, British Defence Secretary Grant Shapps wrote online that the long-time official's legacy was having "overseen over 355,000 casualties amongst his own soldiers and mass civilian suffering with an illegal campaign in Ukraine."

And that number is expected to grow: speaking in Washington last week, Britain's top uniformed officer, Adm. Sir Tony Radakin, told reporters he expects Russia to hit 500,000 casualties over the summer."

SHOIGU

Orcs still focusing on consolidation of forces as a tactical ploy and according to Nortex sources, this also has strategic advantage since they consider remnants of their destroyed armor and rotting corpses as holding ground.

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/1cqy0qt/fighters_of_the_63rd_brigade_repelling_a_large/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/1cqy2l5/a_large_number_of_russian_occupiers_were/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button

Russia's problem is no single person can turn the military into one that fights with acumen. A turd will remain a turd. I have a strong suspicion Putin is like Hitler and tells Russian generals how to fight the war. Rarely is a politician a good general.

I really doubt I will see very large Russian formations attacking with speed and lethality. That is too complex for them to achieve. They are so poor in the attack that they are relegated to WWI tactics of linear formations with plodding maneuver. The Russians will use a lot of artillery and MLRS, but the battles will be decided in force on force engagements of 2000 meters and less.

The Russians will have to maneuver in open terrain to attack Kharkiv which gives the advantage to Ukraine. However, Ukraine will need to have the bullets, rounds, drones, and missiles available for the fight.

Corruption in the military is an interesting perspective. One of the problems with the Soviet Union were oligarchs who took advantage of the industrial complex to make money on contracts to produce products. The contracts and the promised funds were more important than the products and the want of the products.

Perhaps there is significant corruption in the military-industrial complex. Everyone wants to make money with little regard to the "products". Therefore, everyone falsely states everything is good. Systemic corruption created an inept military.

I had a conversation with an army officer who trained with the Russians, and he described them as thugs and criminals.

Daily Ukraine map thread 🧵 for Monday 13th May 2024

Highlights: Russian forces continue to mostly walk their way across the border north of Kharkiv. Hlyboke and Buhruvatka were captured, and fighting in Vovchansk has begun.

No significant changes elsewhere. Russian mechanized… pic.twitter.com/FEAzeWD1bu

— Ukraine Control Map (@UAControlMap) May 14, 2024