When he came out and admitted that the team approach is to swing for the fence, I realized real quick that the blame is not on Gomez, Springer, Gattis, any of them. Its on the person above them. Hinch has been in over his head sine he took the job. Team bailed him out time after time last year and he still almost ****ed it up. We need a professional, not an experiment.
Astros 2016 not so improbable, inconceivable march to the World Series
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Last: 7 yr ago by Sea Gull
quote:
When he came out and admitted that the team approach is to swing for the fence, I realized real quick that the blame is not on Gomez, Springer, Gattis, any of them. Its on the person above them. Hinch has been in over his head sine he took the job. Team bailed him out time after time last year and he still almost ****ed it up. We need a professional, not an experiment.
That approach is something decided above Hinch
Yep. All the people wanting Hinch fired should be calling for Luhnow's head, too.
This team just stinks. Hinch is a goner for sure. I'd give Luhnow a little more time.
quote:
When he came out and admitted that the team approach is to swing for the fence, I realized real quick that the blame is not on Gomez, Springer, Gattis, any of them. Its on the person above them. Hinch has been in over his head sine he took the job. Team bailed him out time after time last year and he still almost ****ed it up. We need a professional, not an experiment.
Yea but as a hitter, do you seriously go up to the plate just wanting to go yard because that is the team mentality? Of course not. Baseball players have quite some freedom to really do as they please at the plate.
On a positive note - Devenski will start for Feldman.
WTF? Just saw Feliz pitched last night? When did he get back? I guess his 10 ERA at Fresno impressed.
I understand the people who always want the manager fired because there is always somebody who thinks they could do better, but anybody wanting to fire Lunhow is a ****ing lunatic.
quote:
WTF? Just saw Feliz pitched last night? When did he get back? I guess his 10 ERA at Fresno impressed.
Still pissed he got back to the majors after the ****show that was game 2 in NYC. Any one of our pitching prospects deserved a spot over him. Hope we never see him pitch for us again.
Would you saw they are luhnow-tics?
quote:I don't necessarily want to fire Luhnow (yet), but I think it's fair to start calling into question his ability to assemble a championship roster. It's possible that his role in St. Louis was his ceiling (assistant GM, identify/develop young talent, using math/stats to recommend bargain bin steals, etc). In other words, like others have discussed, there are signs of Morey 2.0. Great at making a bad team average or an average team good via his aforementioned strengths, but doesn't understand how to assemble a championship squad.
I understand the people who always want the manager fired because there is always somebody who thinks they could do better, but anybody wanting to fire Lunhow is a ****ing lunatic.
Just look at the Cubs offseason acquisitions over the past two years with a proven GM and what we did. And I think the comparison is valid because the Cubs/Astros are in similar stages of their growth cycles. Both Epstein and Luhnow did a great job stocking talent from 2012-2014 and getting their teams set for a run, but only one seems to know how to take the next step...
Cubs:
Sign Jon Lester - proven big league starter
Trade for Dexter Fowler - proven big league CF, took advantage of Luhnow making a salary dump
Sign John Lackey - proven big league starter
Trade for Adam Warren - probably the least proven of the six but had a nice resume with the Yankees
Sign Jason Hayward - proven big league outfielder
Sign Ben Zobrist - proven big league infielder
EDIT: Sign Joe Maddon as manager - proven winner in the postseason
NOTE: Epstein only gave up Valbuena and Starlin Castro in the trades for Fowler and Warren.
Astros:
Sign Colby Rasmus - credit to Luhnow
Trade for Evan Gattis - generally unproven when acquired, bust
Trade for Luis Valbuena - generally unproven when acquired, bust (meanwhile, Fowler is killing it)
Trade for Carlos Gomez - hadn't done much in the two years prior to our acquisition, bust
Trade for Mike Fiers - did ok last year, not a bust but certainly not pitching well this year
Sign Doug Fister - bargain bin pickup, signed him with crossed fingers on his recovery, bust so far but still early
Trade for Ken Giles - young talent, great arm, but unproven closer in pressure situations, bust so far but still early (meanwhile, I'm sure Luhnow would give his right *** to have Velasquez back)
EDIT: Sign AJ Hinch as manager - unproven
There may be a few more on each squad that I'm forgetting, but in general, it's clear the type of acquisitions Luhnow targets as opposed to Epstein.
TLDR: I'm not disagreeing with you at this point in time and he's done alot of good things since taking over as Astros GM. I'm just not sold on his ability to assemble a championship roster. It's possible Luhnow was the perfect guy to get us to today, but we might need someone different to get us a ring.
Epstein has a payroll twice as large as what we are currently spending despite any similarity in "cycle."
Watching the Astros like
The big difference I see is Cubs spend we don't.
I've said before that Crane/Lunhow have said over and over 'We've got money and we're not afraid to spend it' but I've yet to see it in action. I'm concerned that they're penny pinchers. One model of this madness method we are using to build is being cheap and getting bargains. That's why it was called Moneyball. I'm not sure that will change anytime soon.
And I'm just saying, but you're comparing one the best GMs in the game for one of the biggest market teams to a GM on his first gig for a small market team.
I've said before that Crane/Lunhow have said over and over 'We've got money and we're not afraid to spend it' but I've yet to see it in action. I'm concerned that they're penny pinchers. One model of this madness method we are using to build is being cheap and getting bargains. That's why it was called Moneyball. I'm not sure that will change anytime soon.
And I'm just saying, but you're comparing one the best GMs in the game for one of the biggest market teams to a GM on his first gig for a small market team.
quote:I think the bolded part of your statement is key. If Crane is telling Luhnow he only wants him to make second-rate, bargain bin acquisitions to keep the payroll low, then your point is totally valid. If Luhnow has more financial flexibility than he's used the past two offseasons and is trying to outsmart everyone by targeting the second-rate, bargain bin acquisitions and hoping they pan out, then I think we both would agree there's a problem with the GM. I'm guessing the right answer is somewhere in the middle.
Epstein has a payroll twice as large as what we are currently spending despite any similarity in "cycle."
Some of this is simply not true.
Carlos Gomez had a couple of very good seasons before last year. his wRC+ was 132 and 128 in 2014 and 2013. That's 32 points and 28 points above the league average. His OPS in those years were .833 and .843
Fowler's stats in these seasons were wRC+ of 124 and 103. His OPS during those years were 776 and .774
Evan Gattis had a 126 in the wRC+ category during 2014 with the Braves. OPS was .810. He didn't have a history of success though, so I guess "unproven" isn't completely unfair.
But with regards to the CF acquisitions between the two clubs, on paper, getting Gomez was a much better decision than getting Fowler. Unfortunately for us, it just hasn't worked out that well so far.
Carlos Gomez had a couple of very good seasons before last year. his wRC+ was 132 and 128 in 2014 and 2013. That's 32 points and 28 points above the league average. His OPS in those years were .833 and .843
Fowler's stats in these seasons were wRC+ of 124 and 103. His OPS during those years were 776 and .774
Evan Gattis had a 126 in the wRC+ category during 2014 with the Braves. OPS was .810. He didn't have a history of success though, so I guess "unproven" isn't completely unfair.
But with regards to the CF acquisitions between the two clubs, on paper, getting Gomez was a much better decision than getting Fowler. Unfortunately for us, it just hasn't worked out that well so far.
quote:Valid point. Assuming the Crane $$$ limitation actually exists (which it may or may not), I guess I would have rather seen Luhnow go out and sign 2-3 proven big leaguers + a proven manager for the same price as the 8-9 second rate, bargain bin guys we've acquired the past two seasons (not even mentioning the 10-12 prospects we gave up in those acquisitions).
The big difference I see is Cubs spend we don't.
I've said before that Crane/Lunhow have said over and over 'We've got money and we're not afraid to spend it' but I've yet to see it in action. I'm concerned that they're penny pinchers. One model of this madness method we are using to build is being cheap and getting bargains. That's why it was called Moneyball. I'm not sure that will change anytime soon.
And I'm just saying, but you're comparing one the best GMs in the game for one of the biggest market teams to a GM on his first gig for a small market team.
quote:You're not off base at all. He's been shaky at best. He's opening the door big time if Bregman can play.
Am I off-based in saying that Correa's defense is very unimpressive and somewhat lackluster so far?
He's made quite a few errors, he's missed quite a few makeable plays, not made a few tougher plays that I expect him to make.
quote:I don't disagree with that. On a case-by-case basis, there's definitely some flaws in my abbreviated analysis. I'm more just trying to make a general point about the type of guys Luhnow targets relative to the type of guys a proven championship GM targets.
Some of this is simply not true.
Carlos Gomez had a couple of very good seasons before last year. his wRC+ was 132 and 128 in 2014 and 2013. That's 32 points and 28 points above the league average. His OPS in those years were .833 and .843
Fowler's stats in these seasons were wRC+ of 124 and 103. His OPS during those years were 776 and .774
Evan Gattis had a 126 in the wRC+ category during 2014 with the Braves. OPS was .810. He didn't have a history of success though, so I guess "unproven" isn't completely unfair.
But with regards to the CF acquisitions between the two clubs, on paper, getting Gomez was a much better decision than getting Fowler. Unfortunately for us, it just hasn't worked out that well so far.
The Cubs would trade Fowler for Gomez straight up right now.
Lunhow has been fantastic, a truly elite scouting and development GM, with a track record of handling all of that back in St Louis where they were amazing as well. Even if his roster building skills are suspect (based on like 20 games in his only season ever where we had expectations), I would take those warts because he is possibly the best in the game at building the pipeline to the majors for talent.
Lunhow has been fantastic, a truly elite scouting and development GM, with a track record of handling all of that back in St Louis where they were amazing as well. Even if his roster building skills are suspect (based on like 20 games in his only season ever where we had expectations), I would take those warts because he is possibly the best in the game at building the pipeline to the majors for talent.
quote:Disagree with the first point but I think the second point is very reasonable.
The Cubs would trade Fowler for Gomez straight up right now.
Lunhow has been fantastic, a truly elite scouting and development GM, with a track record of handling all of that back in St Louis where they were amazing as well. Even if his roster building skills are suspect (based on like 20 games in his only season ever where we had expectations), I would take those warts because he is possibly the best in the game at building the pipeline to the majors for talent.
quote:
I don't disagree with that. On a case-by-case basis, there's definitely some flaws in my abbreviated analysis. I'm more just trying to make a general point about the type of guys Luhnow targets relative to the type of guys a proven championship GM targets.
But I think it's more than that. I think it's almost apples and oranges.
Lunhow targets guys based on this sabermetrics/moneyball/whatever you call it criteria, while Epstein just goes out and cuts checks to the guys he picks.
Not saying you can't criticize Lunhow, but comparing his him to Epstein and the Cubs is not really a fair comparison.
It's the trades that are tarnishing Luhnow's tenure to date. We gave up a lot for half a season of an ineffective Kazmir. We gave up a lot for Gomez and Fiers and outside of Fier's no-hitter, we're not getting much of a return. We gave up a lot for Giles who was supposed to bolster the bullpen and possibly be the closer; not challenge Feliz for hardest throwing waste of a roster spot.
Hinch isn't free of blame, but his GM has given him pieces to work with that just aren't getting it done. And for some of those guys, we gave up so much talent that we're not ready to do anything but keeping trotting them out there.
We'll probably look back on these trades in a few years and realize just how bad they were.
Hinch isn't free of blame, but his GM has given him pieces to work with that just aren't getting it done. And for some of those guys, we gave up so much talent that we're not ready to do anything but keeping trotting them out there.
We'll probably look back on these trades in a few years and realize just how bad they were.
Two differences..
The Cubs have a real coach.
Every single prospect for them has completely panned out. No injuries, no busts.
The Cubs have a real coach.
Every single prospect for them has completely panned out. No injuries, no busts.
quote:Agreed. Epstein made a much better call with Maddon than Luhnow did with Hinch.
The Cubs have a real coach.
Guys...
Comparing the Cubs and the Astros are about as apples to oranges as you can get in baseball.
Face it, guys. We are a small market team. Until the evidence suggests otherwise, it's who we are.
Many of the trades made by Luhnow to improve the big club were about service time just as much as they were about improving the club.
I hope they spend to hold onto the key pieces, but I just don't think it's going to happen.
Comparing the Cubs and the Astros are about as apples to oranges as you can get in baseball.
Face it, guys. We are a small market team. Until the evidence suggests otherwise, it's who we are.
Many of the trades made by Luhnow to improve the big club were about service time just as much as they were about improving the club.
I hope they spend to hold onto the key pieces, but I just don't think it's going to happen.
I still wish we wouldn't have passed on Kris Bryant
quote:Three differences...Twodifferences..
The Cubs have a real coach.
Every single prospect for them has completely panned out. No injuries, no busts.
Completely agree. There are quite a few who buy into us not spending now to spend later but I'm skeptical.
Also, I'm not sure we gave up as much as you guys think we did. We gave up some prospects with high expectations that weren't panning out (Appel and Santana), some very young guys who were a ways away from helping this team anytime soon (Mengden, Hader, and Notthingham), and while it hurts a bit to lose Phillips and Kemp I think we're pretty set at OF with Tucker the younger, Daz, and Kemp in the pipeline.
We didn't get a lot, but I'm not in the class that thinks we gave up a lot either.
Also, I'm not sure we gave up as much as you guys think we did. We gave up some prospects with high expectations that weren't panning out (Appel and Santana), some very young guys who were a ways away from helping this team anytime soon (Mengden, Hader, and Notthingham), and while it hurts a bit to lose Phillips and Kemp I think we're pretty set at OF with Tucker the younger, Daz, and Kemp in the pipeline.
We didn't get a lot, but I'm not in the class that thinks we gave up a lot either.
quote:I wish we wouldn't have either, but the Cubs themselves had Appel at the top of their board too.
I still wish we wouldn't have passed on Kris Bryant
in what world was Santana not panning out?
He came up and sat the bench between pinch hits.
He came up and sat the bench between pinch hits.
The reason that Epstein's method works and Billy Beane is still stuck in Oakland is $. That's the reason the RedSox have two new titles in the last decade and the A's are still longing for the days of mulleted roid monsters. Looking for market inefficiencies works to an extent, but at some point in time you have to write big checks to get some proven commodities as well.
Needless to say, it's been a miserable start. But let's break the team down and take a look.
Here are the position players who are set in stone (for the foreseeable future)
Altuve
Springer
Correa
Rasmus
White
Castro
So the only person on this list who definitely sucks at the plate is Castro. He's bad. Yes, we all know. White is the only big question mark. We've seen him kill it, but he's clearly struggling right now. Hopefully he can turn things around and hit around .275 with a little pop. Still years better than Carter was last season.
So that leaves CF, 3rd, and DH
Obviously Gomez is going to have the advantage for CF. However, if he can't turn things around, Tucker, Marisnick, and Marwin all could end up in the OF after a little shuffling. Marwin is solid with the bat. Tucker could be a good fit, but you never really know what you're getting with him. Marisnick probably isn't much of an upgrade over Gomez.
Pretty much, this team is going to be plugging in Marwin, Tucker, Valbueana, and Gattis to fill the holes. None of these guys are great, but some of them aren't bad options at all for the bottom of the lineup.
Now let's look at the bullpen. This (shockingly) isn't quite as bad as it seems. Harris has a .93 ERA. Gregerson is at 1.13. Neshek is at 2.70. Sipp is at 3.86. None of these are terrible. Sipp should drop his ERA, as he's proven that he's a solid lefty out of the pen. That leaves us with Fields (7.71) and Giles (8.31). Fields should settle in. Who knows about Giles
That leaves us with the starters. No one expected Keuchel to pitch as well as last season. However, he's much better than what his ERA shows this season. I'm really not concerned about him right now. McHugh should turn things around and be a decent 2 or 3 starter. Hopefully McCullers gets back soon and can pick up where he left off last season. Once he gets back, that'll slide Fiers and Fister back to 4/5. That should help out a little bit. Who knows what you're gonna get with these 2 guys though
This team is definitely capable of turning things around. Most of these guys (aside from Castro and Gomez) don't necessarily look like they're playing poorly. Sometimes things just don't fall your way. I think this team should be fine, but hell, this is baseball and crazier things have happened
Here are the position players who are set in stone (for the foreseeable future)
Altuve
Springer
Correa
Rasmus
White
Castro
So the only person on this list who definitely sucks at the plate is Castro. He's bad. Yes, we all know. White is the only big question mark. We've seen him kill it, but he's clearly struggling right now. Hopefully he can turn things around and hit around .275 with a little pop. Still years better than Carter was last season.
So that leaves CF, 3rd, and DH
Obviously Gomez is going to have the advantage for CF. However, if he can't turn things around, Tucker, Marisnick, and Marwin all could end up in the OF after a little shuffling. Marwin is solid with the bat. Tucker could be a good fit, but you never really know what you're getting with him. Marisnick probably isn't much of an upgrade over Gomez.
Pretty much, this team is going to be plugging in Marwin, Tucker, Valbueana, and Gattis to fill the holes. None of these guys are great, but some of them aren't bad options at all for the bottom of the lineup.
Now let's look at the bullpen. This (shockingly) isn't quite as bad as it seems. Harris has a .93 ERA. Gregerson is at 1.13. Neshek is at 2.70. Sipp is at 3.86. None of these are terrible. Sipp should drop his ERA, as he's proven that he's a solid lefty out of the pen. That leaves us with Fields (7.71) and Giles (8.31). Fields should settle in. Who knows about Giles
That leaves us with the starters. No one expected Keuchel to pitch as well as last season. However, he's much better than what his ERA shows this season. I'm really not concerned about him right now. McHugh should turn things around and be a decent 2 or 3 starter. Hopefully McCullers gets back soon and can pick up where he left off last season. Once he gets back, that'll slide Fiers and Fister back to 4/5. That should help out a little bit. Who knows what you're gonna get with these 2 guys though
This team is definitely capable of turning things around. Most of these guys (aside from Castro and Gomez) don't necessarily look like they're playing poorly. Sometimes things just don't fall your way. I think this team should be fine, but hell, this is baseball and crazier things have happened
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